The 2026-2027 offseason for the sport of Major League Baseball has finally arrived after the St. Louis Cardinals were officially eliminated a little over 6 weeks ago. While the floodgates of the sport have yet to be opened with the beginning of Free Agency, that hasn’t stopped the fanbase and their clamoring for change and investment on the roster. After the conclusion of the World Series, Andrew Wang of the “Dealin’ the Cards” podcast created an interactive roster tool that allows fans to be the GM of their favorite team across all 3o major league franchises. With this tool, fans everywhere tipped their hand at some of the adjustments they’d like to see brought to fruition.
A notable number of fans included a veteran starter, some of whom are well beyond their prime or who just aren’t the same pitchers after experiencing their fair share of injuries and are on the wrong side of 30. The assumption being made is that “If they can do it with Dustin May, they can do it with this guy.” Which isn’t true. Dustin May was still under the age of 30 and needed a healthy offseason and a new extended opportunity to reclaim his career, which he seemingly did so between St. Louis and Milwaukee this season, and by winning a World Series (Congrats, Dustin; sorry again about Winter Warm Up).
So, I wanted to write about WHY I think the Cardinals should steer clear of some very notable names that fans have visions of seeing in the Show Me state in 2027. This list isn’t about the very top guys. Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, or Trevor Rogers don’t quite fit into this bucket that I’m talking about, though the Cardinals signing those guys to deals this offseason, I’ve been informed by various sources in and around the team, is unlikely to pursue seriously.
If I’m Chaim Bloom, I’m staying far away from these guys this offseason.
RHP Zac Gallen
2026 was a true bottoming-out season for former Cardinals farmhand Zac Gallen. It’s been back-to-back disappointing years for Gallen. After posting a 4.83 ERA in 192 IP in 2025, it was an “okay-ish” season despite the tough ERA, but it was followed up by a 6.07 ERA in 105.1 IP in 2026. Not to mention he was in the bottom 1% of baseball in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, xwOBACON, xERA, and K%. Those are all big red flashing light indicators screaming this guy doesn’t belong at this level any longer! He also produced a “Pitching Run Value” of -19, which put him in the bottom 5% of all of baseball in terms of how his stuff performed this season. This isn’t a guy who is in need of a “change of scenery”; this is a guy who might need to consider what a knuckleball could do for his career, because he already does the kitchen sink thing and it’s not working for him either. Those of you who understand that reference, hopefully that puts into context just how far away from success he is at this juncture of his career.
RHP Shane Bieber
Let’s start with the obvious with Bieber, his health is failing him and he hasn’t made more than 20 starts in a season since 2023. He hasn’t been the Cy Young caliber arm that everyone knew him as since 2022, which, by the way, was the last time the Cardinals were in the playoffs, so in that context, it’s been a little bit. In 2026, Bieber mustered 11 starts in the regular season, and they were “meh,” to be quite honest with you. Posting a 4.37 ERA with a 5.99 xERA… bad news! Remember all those fun expected stats that I referenced with Gallen? They’re not all that much better with Bieber. Bottom 4% in xBA, Bottom 2% in xSLG, Bottom 2% in wOBA, xwOBA, and xwOBACON. Which for those non-advanced numbers readers at home, this means he was getting hit hard early and often in his starts and they weren’t particularly fluky occurrences either.
RHP Max Scherzer
Personally, I think it’s more likely that Scherzer retires than he attempts to make one last run at another ring. At 42 years old, father time has finally caught up with Mad Max. The time and place for a Scherzer to St. Louis merger was back in the mid 2010’s when Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. vetoed the opportunity to bring the Gateway City native in to pitch for his hometown Cardinals. I really don’t want to make this argument against one of my favorite pitchers to watch and all-time competitors to watch taking the bump. But it doesn’t make sense for St. Louis given that they’re not in an “All-in” position going into 2027.
Scherzer posted a 5.74 ERA and 4.24 xERA in 2026; his average 4-seam FB velo has been down each of the last 4 seasons, and his slider isn’t what it used to be, posting a -7 PRV. I really don’t want to go any further than that other than to say it was one hell of a career for Max, and his legacy as an inner-circle Hall of Fame pitcher is unquestioned.
As I stated earlier this offseason, my view is to allow guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Hjerpe, Tekoah Roby, Mason Molina, Jurrangelo Cintje, Liam Doyle, and Tanner Franklin the opportunity to compete for that 5th spot and allow for continued upward mobility for guys who have big stuff and such significant upside in their profile over guys who might be “reclamation projects.” I don’t think a true Dustin May type exists in this free agent class as it currently stands. Now, if a guy like Shane McClanahan is non-tendered by the Rays, that becomes a different conversation, though, even then, I’d be 50-50 on the proposition. It might be unsexy and generate very little excitement for non-prospect-watching fans to go with the “internal options” route. But it provides greater upside than shelling out unnecessary dollars to guys like Gallen, Bieber, or Scherzer who are either well past their prime, suffering under the toll injuries have taken, or are unable to deceive hitters in a meaningful way to find success.
-Thanks for reading
