Happy November! I am writing this after overtaxing my daughter in the dad tax for Halloween so my fingers may be working faster than my brain. Before getting into baseball, it was such a cool experience to see my daughter teach her sister and friends how to Trick-or-Treat. To baseball!
Even when using the Dealin’ the Cards GM tool, I could not get myself to go all in on the upcoming offseason just because I do not like to predict unrealistic scenarios: See Tarik Skubal to STL. I believe the St. Louis winter activity will be slow, and would have been slow regardless of the impending lockout. The current lineup 7/9 complete and the rotation has plenty of options for innings. The most intrigue for me is how the starting pitching frames will be divvied up and for that reason, I want to use this Sunday spot to ask what the VEB community would do.
In most of my writing, I try to stay realistic to what the team would actually do in their offseason and current state, not what I would do in MLB The Show. This weekend, we talked to Bernie Miklasz (coming at your podcast feed tomorrow) and Jake asked me about my rotation preference for 2027. I am on the record for using the fifth spot as a revolving door for prospects last season, a year that was used to get answers on the future. This upcoming season, there are guys ready to prove themselves for sure, but the Cardinals set a 77-win baseline for me, so they could also invest in a veteran to anchor their rotation for a competitive stretch.
As you will hear me say on the VEB podcast, I do not have a preference in either direction for next year so I figured you could take the time to sound off in the comments instead of just a black and white poll. I will do my best to cover the basics of both options so those who feel strongly one way or another, share your case!
Option 1: Higher floor Dustin May with more team control
The Dustin May signing worked out exactly as both sides planned all along. May shows his health and value, a contender pays St. Louis, May wins a title. Bada bing bada boom. That strategy allowed the Cardinals to use the first few months of the minor league season to see if there was a rotation arm ready to take over and Hunter Dobbins pitched his way into that role. Now that May and Dobbins are both gone for now, there is a spot available for an established veteran to again slot in.
I am pretty out on bringing back May, not because he is not a good starter, but because I want the Cardinals to shoot higher if they go the free agent route. The likelihood of standing pat means we should expect another battle with .500 instead of the postseason, so going into the top tier for arms is an unlikely option. Again, trying to speak to what the Cardinals could actually do.
With Skubal out, I have thought of someone like Kris Bubic mostly because he is one of the few free agent arms under the age of 30. Patrick Sandoval has also been of interest, but I would also be a fan of the Cardinals again aiming higher. The free agent starter class has a pretty wide talent gap this offseason, so the mid-tier arms may end up going for more money than usual anyway, depending on CBA negotiations.
Since spending should increase, the Cardinals can afford to go to a two or three-year deal for a higher upside arm than May. Someone with more potential of sticking around if the timeline is accelerated, but will also maintain trade value if the team goes the wrong direction. In this option, a deadline trade would again open up a rotation spot for a second half tryout that could allow someone like Richard Fitts to get an extended look after returning to full health to start the year.
Option 2: Cycle through MLB-ready (or close to) arms and preserve innings
The other choice that I would have been up for last year is if they used either a six-man rotation or maneuvered the option timeline to get a few extended looks at MLB capable arms. In a six-man rotation, younger arms would still be on a regular starting schedule but have their innings limited organically as opposed to pitch counts placed onto starts. For my option idea, the Cardinals could keep the same prospect up for a 3-5 start span before sending them down to preserve innings and work on what they learned at the major league level. Since an optioned player needs to spend minimum time after the demotion, there is no rush for them to have to prove themselves again.
Looking at 2026, I thought that could have been the strategy for guys like Dobbins and Quinn Mathews, pitchers bouncing back after injury or down seasons but would serve the team better being in the majors than in Memphis. In certain circumstances, I would like to see teams “rush” pitchers who are considered close to MLB ready and at least get a look of what they can do at the major league level, hopefully before injury or a severe downturn (Tink) occurs.
For 2027, this could easily point to Fitts, health willing, and extend to AAA arms like Mason Molina, Cooper Hjerpe, Jurrangelo Cinjtje, and Tekoah Roby. Those five guys could form some type of rotation of their own, spending a few weeks at a time learning the major league game before heading back to Memphis to fine tune things without the bright lights.
Those guys all have some things to work on but also have the stuff to compete on a major league mound at some level. I think each of them would benefit from getting their feet wet in St. Louis and give the organization an opportunity to see what they can do.
As you can see, I can see arguments for both sides. This also assumes that Matthew Liberatore and/or possibly one other arm are moved out of the rotation in some way. These options exist only if there is a clear vacancy in the rotation where the Cardinals could intrigue a free agent with a starting role or provide more than spot starts to their upper level prospects.
Let me know which option you would prefer or predict your 2027 rotation, assuming a normal offseason.
Thanks as always!
