Cardinals Signing Tarik Skubal is a Great Idea That’ll Never Happen

I am not a fan of hypothetical trades that are completely unrealistic which is why my first instinct when I heard ESPN mention the Cardinals and Tarik Skubal in the same breath was to laugh it off and turn away. However, the more I started to think about the concept of the St. Louis Cardinals signing free agent Tarik Skubal the more I realized that it’s worth exploring even though I predict it’ll never happen.

I want to be clear that this is not a free agent signing prediction that originated with us. Blame this on the 2026-27 MLB offseason best fits for free agents from ESPN. They said that the Chicago Cubs were the best fit for Tarik Skubal, but their second choice for a possible fit was our beloved Cardinals. I immediately dropped this in The Feed and it inspired many interesting responses.

One thing that David Schoenfield of ESPN said that does make a hypothetical Tarik Skubal signing doable for the Cardinals is the estimated 2027 payroll of just $66 million. Mathematically speaking, it would not be outrageous for St. Louis to add even a pitcher of Skubal’s stature to the roster. I’ve seen estimates that Tarik will command a contract between $400 and $500 million. Spotrac projected a 7-year, $276 million contract not that long ago. I think that’s wildly conservative, but let’s run with those numbers. Could the Cardinals handle a $40 million per season top of the rotation superstar starter? My last name is not DeWitt, but it doesn’t sound unreasonable for St. Louis to suddenly have a $106 million dollar roster instead of $66 million.

There are three more reasons that I think a St. Louis Cardinals/Tarik Skubal deal could make sense for what Chaim Bloom is trying to accomplish. First, he would be the ultimate leader for the young arms on the Cardinals roster and those about to appear from Memphis. Who better to be a model and mentor for young pitchers than a two-time Cy Young award winner? The second would be marketing. A Skubal signing would be a message to the fanbase that the organization is serious about winning again sooner rather than later. That would be a great way for the DeWitt family to put the attendance trajectory at Busch Stadium headed back toward 3 million per season. Finally, Chaim Bloom would not be giving up any prospects to place a proven ace at the top of the rotation. That fits within his stated mission of not harming the farm system for a short term gain.

Now, let’s tear down why all of my daydreaming will almost certainly never happen. First, Tarik Skubal will likely not have any interest in being a part of a rebuild even if he would likely speed up the return to competitiveness. He’ll have the Dodgers, Yankees and other big market teams that are already competitive knocking on his door willing to pay unreasonable amounts of money for a long-term deal.

I’m not a Chaim Bloom mind-reader, but I think we’re at least one if not two seasons away from him going after a major free agent talent. The last time I asked the community about this, I think that 2028 was the most popular guess of when the Cardinals will be seriously competitive again. Why sign Tarik Skubal who will likely hit his peak in the next couple of seasons before the rest of the roster is prepared for a deep post-season run? I’d also be concerned about the bone chips in Skubal’s left elbow discovered this past May. He looked strong when he returned in mid-June through the rest of the season, but that would likely give me a slight pause before I’d recommend getting the DeWitt checkbook out.

As I watched Chaim Bloom’s end of season press conference, I got a vibe from him that he’s pulling back from some fan’s expectations that the rebuild is going quicker than expected. He seemed to be warning that an expectation of seriously competing in the next season would be premature. Do those words sound like a President of Baseball Operations that plans to go sign the biggest free agent pitcher in recent memory? I don’t think so.