Welcome to a new series that I will occasionally run between the free agent profiles and random nonsense: plugging holes in the roster with trades. These trades might be unlikely because the Cardinals won’t pay the price, they may be unlikely because the other team is not actually interested in trading them, or a much more depressing possibility is the Cardinals are not actually that interested in improving the team this offseason.
My stance this offseason, which I don’t believe the Cardinals share, is that the Cardinals should try to actually win in 2027. I will bring up a past example, unfortunately a rival, but in 2014, the Cubs won 73 games. They had an emerging core with Jake Arrieta turning into an ace, Kris Byrant about to have his service time manipulated, Anthony Rizzo standing on top of the plate on the way to multiple All-Star appearances, and a very good farm system not very far away (led by Bryant, Baez, and Contreras). They signed Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, and traded for Dexter Fowler. They won 97 games.
So yes, I am going to spend most of this offseason acting like the Cardinals may make moves, both because it gives me something to write about and also to get it out there that some Cardinals fans want the Cardinals to make moves. Don’t sit on your ass. Please. Abrams is just one possibility, but please do something this offseason to show you care about winning. Rant over.
Let’s get the difficult part of this trade out of the way. I saw Abrams as a name that might be traded on the em el bee website and the rationale was that Abrams wanted to stay at SS and the Nationals are trying to move him away from SS. Which would obviously present a problem for the Cardinals if Abrams really is hung up on playing SS. The problem is that he’s one of the worst defenders in baseball at SS. He legitimately has no range defensively. He was 1st percentile in range this year, 2nd percentile last year, 1st percentile the year before, 3rd percentile in his first two seasons – like he just can’t play SS. He has never at any point looked like can play SS.
I feel like if I am delusional about my ability to play my position and then I’m traded specifically because of my stubborness about playing that position and I go to a team where the position I want to play is manned by a back-to-back Gold Glove winner – okay fine I’ll change positions. Abrams is going to face that reality at some point, probably next year quite frankly, and the Cardinals situation is about as smooth as you can ask for – it would be impossible to argue that no, actually, I deserve to play over the Gold Glover. So big hurdle, but should be the kind of thing you can figure out before you agree to a trade.
The bad news is that he has zero professional games at 3B – I hate that I keep proposing players with no experience at 3B, 3B is not in a good place right now across the league. The good news is that it’s hard to see how he could have much worse of a defensive impact than is already baked into his value. Range is less important at 3B than it is at SS or even at 2B and he has a strong enough arm for 3B, with 53rd percentile arm strength. Hardly a strength but he throws harder than either Blaze Jordan and Thomas Saggese. I think even without the presence of JJ Wetherholt, 3B might be the better move for him.
I don’t even think I have to do much work to figure out his value. He was worth 3 fWAR in 2025 and 3.7 fWAR last year. Last year came with what looks to me a bit of an elevated offensive line from what I would expect. He had a 17.6 HR/FB% (career 11.6%) and a much lower xwOBA than actual wOBA (.333 compared to .358). So he’s an above average hitter, but I think the current 109 wRC+ Fangraphs has projected for “rest of season” is basically right. He derives a lot of value from his baserunning too – 143 stolen bases to 25 caught stealing in his last four seasons (average of 35 a season). So he might be worth half a win from his baserunning.
So terrible defender, great baserunner, above average hitter – again I’ll defer to the Fangraphs rest of season projection, which is actually just a full season, but it has him with 3 WAR. That seems right to me. He will be 26 next year and has two years of team control. Because he’s 26, I’m relatively comfortable saying he’s a 3 WAR player in 2028 too. Even if that’s not what the projections will say, that’s probably his trade value. How much is he getting paid? According to MLB trade rumors, $10.2 million in 2027. Which means his 2028 value should be around $15.3 million.
That means in prospect value, valued at 6 wins across two years while getting paid $25.5 million, Abrams will be valued at $34.5 million. Fangraphs has posted an updated evaluation of prospects and that is almost exactly what a 50 future value pitcher is worth. The other option, at least by this system, is to give the Nats a 45+ future value pitcher ($15 million) and a 45+ FV hitter ($18.5 million). The numbers work out weirdly well.
Okay what do the Nationals need? Probably not a catcher. Keibert Ruiz is going to be in year 5 of an eight-year-deal and he was actually decent for the first time since 2022 last season. Top 100 prospect Harry Ford is behind him. They already traded for a big catching prospect, they probably are going to let Ford sink or swim before trying the next solution.
Look no further than the Nationals actually if you want to throw some cold water on relying on prospects. Dylan Crews sure looks like a bust. Daylen Lile had a promising rookie year and… then had a below average season in his first full season. Brady House took some big steps in his second year and was worth 0.6 fWAR in 95 games. Both Ruiz and Ford haven’t really justified their prospect ranking at all yet. Josiah Gray has been pretty underwhelming five years in.
Anyway, to answer the question of what they need? It’s kind of complicated, because of the above paragraph. You can never go wrong with pitchers and outfielders though and the Nationals could definitely use a 1B. Alec Burleson makes no sense on either side quite frankly, because the Cardinals would give up all the gains they made by getting Abrams and the Nats would presumably not want someone with two years of team control, cause if they thought they were close, they wouldn’t trade Abrams.
In theory, Blaze Jordan is perfect, except I don’t know if the Nationals are actually interested in him. He’s largely not expected to be able to play 3B (I know the small sample said he could, I am skeptical), and I’m not sure his bat is good enough for 1B. The Nationals probably think the exact same thing. Jack Gurevitch is also an option. If you’re wondering the Nats do have two top 100 prospects in the middle infield in AA, but maybe they’d be interested in one of the Cardinals utility players to replace Abrams in the short term. So with my two premises and a few possible proposals within that premise, here is what I came up with
50 FV Pitcher Proposal
CJ Abrams and Riley Cornelio for Jurrangelo Cjntje and Blaze Jordan
Yeah I tried to justify a different pitcher, but this is the prompt. I’m using Fangraphs, and of course other sources may think other pitchers are 50 FV, but the two options given by Fangraphs are Cjintje and Liam Doyle. There is just about no way Brandon Clarke or Tekoah Roby or Cooper Hjerpe have the value of a 50 FV prospect at this point. Tanner Franklin might but he’s no easier to stomach than Cjintje to be honest. I wanted to put Daniel Eagen here because I don’t have an attachment to him, but I don’t think he’s a 50 FV pitcher either.
Because Jordan is a bit too much technically, I wanted the Nats to throw in a reliever too. But holy hell are their relief options terrible. They had a worse bullpen than the Cardinals. Cornelio struck out 37% of batters in AAA and had a very strong September (31.3 K%), so maybe there’s something here. Clayton Beeter is a possibility too. Luis Perales would effectively be a Rule 5 guy, but he’s going to be 24 with no options and according to Fangraphs has a 65 fastball, 60 slider, and 70 cutter… with 30 command.
The specific relief pitcher is not important. Pick your most promising guy. And if the Nats aren’t interested in Jordan, I’ll give them Bryan Torres.
I already know most of you are saying no to this.
45+ FV Hitter and Pitcher Proposal
CJ Abrams for Brandon Clarke and Jesus Baez
I’m not setting out to trade Clarke or Baez… but if an opportunity presents itself, I’m cashing in my chips. I think most Cardinals fans are vastly overrating the likelihood that Baez is going to be good, which is funny because I was definitely the high man on him entering the year. But he was not good in High A for half the year before destroying the ball in Springfield, he doesn’t walk, he has always had low BABIPs, and the home run ball in the minors makes his numbers untrustworthy. Clarke speaks for itself, to the point that I’m not sure he’s actually considered a 45+ prospect at this point.
If Clarke is a no go in a trade, sorry Daniel Eagen, I have no attachment to you, you’re found money at this point. If you work out, I don’t think I’d care in the same way as the other 45+ FV guys.
Conclusion
Yeah I largely expect a pretty healthy dose of nos in response to my article. Just for the record, this is what it would take. If you theoretically want Abrams, but not any of these trades, you don’t want Abrams. You aren’t going to get Abrams for prospects that don’t hurt to give up. And granted, I’m sure a lot of nos are going to be of the “doesn’t make sense where this team is at right now” and yeah fair enough. I’m actually not crazy about making these trades either. I just thought it was interesting to explore.
Book Corner
One of my first comments about Alexander Hamilton by Ron Chernow was that I was simultaneously listening to a history podcast on Aaron Burr. The contrast was interesting. The podcast was more or less from the Burr perspective. Obviously, the book was from the Hamilton perspective. I suppose this had a negative effect on the book, because I kind of don’t buy into the book’s take on Burr or the duel itself. I have my own issues with the podcast, but this is the book corner.
I want to say this delicately but Chernow is clearly a Hamilton fanboy and I don’t think people who love the book would disagree with that. But I think the duel is a lot less clear than he portrays it. I happen to think it’s very possible Hamilton accidentally made a really bad shot, I think it’s very possible if he ended up dying, he knew he would come out looking the best if he acted like he would miss on purpose. Both sides agreed they fired at very similar times. I think Nathan Pendleton’s account is straight up unreliable because he wanted Hamilton to look good and Burr to look bad.
I just am making the point that the picture we get of the duel, and not just from this book to be fair, is almost entirely one-sided in Hamilton’s favor and it’s because he died. Everything Burr had ever done at that point was completely erased or colored with that fact. People with no ill thoughts of Burr prior to the duel suddenly might have bad things to say about things Burr did in the 1790s.
And I’m aware Hamilton is not the only one with negative things to say about Burr, but given the time period and the animosity of the Federalists and Republicans, it’s so incredibly easy to find negative quotes. I realize he never got along with Thomas Jefferson, but Burr was able to be vice president for a reason. He was reasonably well-liked. It’s tricky because I know his bias and overwhelming love of Hamilton is part of why people love the book, but when it came to Burr, it genuinely felt like Hamilton rose from the dead and inhabited his body to write those passages, which kind of just made me not trust anything he said about Burr.
Fundamentally, I believe both entered the duel for political reasons. I don’t agree with dueling of course, but if both parties agree to it, then I can’t view either side as the “villain” but Chernow so clearly portrays him as one. Like yeah he probably had murderous intent, kind of the whole point, kill or be killed and all? If Hamilton missed on purpose, how the hell was Burr supposed to know that? Both sides agreed both shot within a few seconds of each other.
Anyway just my two cents, I enjoyed reading it, didn’t love the Burr stuff. (I am aware he was later accused of treason, but that’s a combination of trusting the slimeball James Wilkinson and being an opponent of Jefferson, cause there was no real evidence for it)
