The World Series is making its way South with the midwest avian population but my sports focus somehow still centers around the St. Louis Cardinals and football, both fantasy and NFL. Nothing against the Brewers, Rays, or the game of baseball, since I do think this Fall Classic is going to be as fun as it gets without having a team in the race.
Even without much happening around the Cardinals, you are all here with us and ready to jump in with your thoughts and feelings around the organization. Chaim Bloom does not tip his hand too often, so trying to predict the actual path he will take this offseason is difficult. He does do well to taper our expectations, saying things in a way that keeps us from hoping for big spending in free agency. I do think this allows us to pencil in much of the 26-man roster, outside of speculating a couple trades here and there.
Assuming that Bloom will leave much of the offense and starting rotation untouched, I wanted to take a look at how these guys should be expected to perform next season. In the most recent VEB and articles pods, I stated a couple times how 77 wins is now the baseline for success in my mind while also understanding the win column does not tell the whole story. Because I expect minimal changes, unfortunately, I could see next season’s record sitting near what we saw in 2026 since the team outperformed most preseason win totals.
Cardinals key contributors have to take another step forward in 2027 season
To get in front of it, I do not expect the Cardinals to trade Ivan Herrera or Leo Bernal this winter, or move on from Masyn Winn for someone who can provide more offense. I foresee Joshua Baez getting I have more than 50% confidence that Nathan Church will be starting in center on Opening Day and I will give a slight edge to Blaze Jordan over Thomas Saggese at third. I think Saggese can (and should?) take Jose Fermin’s role of “super utility guy who somehow starts too many games” to take advantage of his full skillset. However, my confidence in either of those spots being locked up already is low, so I will not figure them into my 2027 thoughts just yet.
This leaves me providing my way too early expectations for JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Leo Bernal, Joshua Baez, and Masyn Winn.
Tier 1: Trustworthy
Wetherholt, Burleson, Herrera
The first two names probably come as no surprise but adding Herrera to the trustworthy list may be a slight shock. The 2025 season was supposed to be a stepping stone for Herrera, but too much time behind the plate and a huge workload may have prevented that leap forward. Even with a slightly disappointing campaign, the hopefully full-time DH was still an above-average bat who can produce runs in different ways.
Assuming that Wetherholt and Herrera bounce back into full health for 2027, this past year may actually be the baseline for both of these players. I am hopeful that the Cardinals staff limits the amount of times a player is in the lineup despite injury, even if they are not at risk for additional damage. Any discomfort can cause a change in mechanics, limiting consistency and potentially creating bad habits. That could have been the case for these two in the dog days of the season, but I think this duo and Burleson will create a scary top of the lineup.
Burly has improved every season of his career and after leading all of MLB in RBIs last year, I am still hopeful for another jump. As he continues to prove his value with the glove at first base, I am holding out for multiple seasons of 30+ homers and a .270 or better batting average before his time in St. Louis is up. The first baseman is a proven clubhouse veteran who still has plenty of time left in his prime to continue to make his mark on the organization and be the grizzled voice for the next contending Cardinals team.
Tier 2: Do it again
Walker and Bernal
A lot was said about Walker’s second half and I hate to use it as an excuse, but he was another player who was playing through discomfort for little or no reason. With the Cardinals out of it, Walker continued playing near everyday as he looked to end his breakout campaign with a 30 homer season and a 3.0 fWAR or better. The injury was said to not have long-term effect on the outfielder, but we saw him fall back into bad habits in September. The All-Star actually hit .305 in August, despite participating in the Home Run Derby, but his final month average dipped to .172, which made his overall second-half stat line look worse than it truly was.
Walker was able to continue to have success on the bases in the final few months of the year, still swiping nine bases to get him into the 20/20 club. Assuming the time off from the daily grind will allow Walker’s hip to get back to full health, the 2027 season will be another big one for him. Baseball card numbers aside, if Walker could put up another 20% or better than league-average season, he will slide into Tier 1 before next season ends.
Moving to Bernal, he could have fit into either of the final two tiers but his debut was so impressive I had to keep him above the last one. My hope is that the switch-hitter plays in 130 games at the big league level next season, which would mean the Cardinals made a catching decision elsewhere on the roster and Bernal was able to stick around for a full major league season. In just 24 games, Bernal hit .284 with a 124 wRC+ but he also saw regression in his plate discipline and defense.
The second part would have been enough to put him into Tier 3, but he looked so darn good at the plate that asking for more from a rookie catcher felt unfair. I believe that the glove will be just fine for the two year fielding award winner in the minors as he gets more comfortable with major league hitters in the box and adjusts to the pitching staff’s stuff. Bernal will play most of the season as a 23-year-old in 2027 and I believe he could be an early leader for Rookie of the Year if he can repeat his offense over a full year while playing a premium position.
Tier 3: Show me more
Winn and Baez
Jumping to Baez first, he showed plenty at the plate in a handful more games that Bernal but falls a tier below the catcher. The left fielder’s .510 slugging percentage was a welcomed addition to the lineup, especially after finally putting an end to the revolving door of players at that spot before his debut. Before going down with an oblique injury that coincidentally ended his season without the Cardinals having to make a playing time decision, Baez hit seven homers, seven doubles, and stole two bags to put his season totals to 41, 29, and 23 respectively. If Joshua Baez could just do it again while at the major league level, we would be in a great spot in St. Louis.
While the 17 homer jump from 2025 is an amazing feat, Baez also saw his K-rate jump back towards the concerning numbers that made him tumble down prospect lists before his resurgence. He also saw his overall average drop about 40 points from his prior year, but that could be easily explained by the outfielder playing at two higher levels than he did in 2025. The main reasons I threw Baez into Tier 3 are his plate discipline, both with contact and patience, and his fielding. I am not asking him to change his overall approach in the box, but a little more bat on ball is a decent sacrifice if it means 35 homers instead of 40. In the grass, he put up a -2 Statcast run value in 24 games on defense and looked awkward tracking down the ball. I will hope his route running improves as he spends more time in just one outfield spot.
Speaking of defense, Masyn Winn does not have anything else to prove at shortstop to make me believe he is a major league capable defender. In order to get me back in on him as an everyday player for at least the next five seasons, though, I have to see a big jump with the bat. Another player that ends up in the lineup despite being nicked up on an annual basis, there has always been something to point to for why the shortstop’s bat has not progressed to the levels we saw in the minors. Even with the injuries, Winn’s metrics have not changed much since his rookie season, so I have started to become more pessimistic on his offensive future.
Chaim Bloom recently spoke to Jesus Baez being more than capable of handling shortstop and the prospect’s offensive skillset is more intriguing than Winn’s was in the minors. The title of this tier was originally Last Chance and only had Winn in it, but he is still just 24-years-old and I cannot let myself be all the way out on a player I had so much positivity around. I am officially out on my 20/20 prediction, but I am not out on his ability to be a .270 or better hitter since he was able do that in the upper levels of the minors and nearly reached that number as a rookie. If Winn does not hit to a 90 wRC+ or higher, I am not saying it is time to send him packing, but I would definitely be more hesitant to loosen the pursestrings to keep him in St. Louis beyond his rookie deal.
Let me know if you would place any of these guys in other spots, although these are my own tiers that are titled in a way to fit my storylines. Feel free to also predict what you think will happen with Nathan Church or third base. Lastly, in case you missed it, I had an interview with Cardinals pitching prospect Michael Watson that was tons of fun. Kareem was also on the pod and it was a ton of fun to dig into the year at Springfield at the talent on that roster. I linked that below for your viewing and/or listening pleasure. Thanks as always!
