Incredible. Amazing. Historic. Unbelievable.
Those were one word texts I received from a few friends who were in as much disbelief as I was seeing Joshua Baez make history. The first homer almost seemed expected. The second one, shocking. The record-setting homer? Go ahead and share any other (clean) words you used at the moment for the best offensive debut in Major League history.
Baez’ never-before-seen performance made homers by Alec Burleson and Blaze Jordan seem irrelevant, but the St. Louis Cardinals had to work their way through some jams to grab the win in game two. Burly has been on another hot streak while Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera have shown signs of breaking out but have not yet gotten heated all the way up since the All-Star break. JJ Wetherholt has been fine in the season’s second half, but Sal Stewart’s continued offensive production has made the Rookie of the Year race closer.
Those four have made up the top half of the Cardinals order in some capacity for the vast majority of the season. Until recently, Ivan Herrera was the two-hole hitter but has now been bouncing around to the cleanup spot, swapping places with Walker. They have looked to be a key cog for the future and now Joshua Baez could extend this lineup further.
Joshua Baez’ power could make up for potential holes in future Cardinals lineups
The Cardinals are still above .500 and have been remaining relevant in the playoff race despite a lack of power in the lineup. Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson have both hit 20 or more homers this year, but the Cardinals currently rank 26th in baseball in homers. Ivan Herrera’s power has been down and JJ Wetherholt could still reach the 20-homer mark, but the rest of the order has been lacking in run production via the longball.
When Alec Burleson or Jordan Walker hit in the three-hole, the duo have been the major part of the best offensive production from that spot in the order by wRC+. Every hitter who has hit in the third spot for the Cardinals this year has combined for 60 extra-base hits, the most in the majors. As shown by Dani Wexelman’s tweet, the middle of the Cardinals order has made up the most hits in the league, but the four and five hitters also measure in the bottom half of the league.
In his major league debut, Baez hit in the five-hole, the spot in the order where the Cardinals 78 wRC+ ranks as 25th in baseball. The Cardinals have 10 homers from their five hitter, and half of those have come from Nolan Gorman, two from traded Lars Nootbaar, and one each from Jose Fermin, Burly, and Walker. For the rest of this season, none of those five hitters are likely to slot into that lineup spot on a regular basis, if ever.
That leaves Baez as the perfect option to lengthen the lineup and pick up any scraps left behind by two of the best run producers in the majors. Of course, putting multi-homer expectations on Baez for the last 40 games of the year feels pretty unfair, especially if the Cardinals continue to manipulate his service time to keep him under the 130 plate appearance mark. However, when he is in the lineup on a mostly-regular basis, he can provide a lineup to excite fans when matched up with the guys ahead of him.
In the last 22 seasons, the Cardinals have had three players hit 30 or more homers just twice in that span. At risk of putting the cart before the horse, since none of the current lineup has hit 30 longballs at the big league level, the 3-4-5 hitters of the future could be the next trio to do so. If this were to happen, along Wetherholt and Herrera each hitting 20+ the load is taken off the rest of the lineup that is still under construction. In the remaining four lineup spots would be a shortstop, third baseman, catcher, and center fielder, assuming that Baez sticks in left and Herrera becomes a full-time DH.
At short, Masyn Winn is making me nervous that my annual 20-20 season for the Gold Glover will ever come to fruition, but his game-changing defense makes me okay with him being a 90 wRC+ player. At third base, Gorman has been hitting Memphis homers seemingly every day while Blaze Jordan, Jose Fermin, Bryan Torres, and Cesar Prieto have taken his spot since the demotion. The Jordan homer notwithstanding, the hot corner has been the third worst group at that position without much near-term hope for a fix.
Blaze has been fine, not great offensively and defensively, and Gorman will probably get another shot soon, but there is not a prospect with the same pedigree as Baez knocking on the door at third. Jesus Baez has been as impressive as Joshua, but he is likely a year or more away from making his run at the majors. Joshua becoming a mainstay in the order could allow Oli Marmol and Chaim Bloom to take more time at solving third base, especially if one of Jimmy Crooks, Leo Bernal, and/or Rainiel Rodriguez becomes the big league players they are projected to be.
Writing it out, this lineup has the potential to play longer, even if shortstop and center fielder continue to prioritize defense. Of course, Baez could also play some center field, but Nathan Church has settled into his role well, especially if the rest of the offense can hit around him. We have seen what Wetherholt, Winn, and Church can do up the middle, so adding a consistent power threat in Baez to the lineup could make Marmol just a third baseman away from one of the best lineups in the majors.
The rest of this season, no matter the outcome, looks to be one that will continue to keep our attention all the way through game 162. That is impossible to say about the last month of the previous few seasons, so even if the Cardinals are not playing in October, we can head into the offseason with an optimistic view of the future.
Thanks as always!
