Ok, I have tackled the topic of what is perhaps our main weakness, the bullpen, and how it correlates with winning teams, how our middling at best bullpen (at the time) wasn’t doing us any favors. Well that was a month or two ago, feels like 6 weeks? And our bullpen is now worse than it was when I suspected it was an issue. Before I move on to the offense, the Cardinals bullpen is around 24th/25th in MLB in ERA, xERA, and xFIP. It is best by FIP, but even incorporating that stat into WAR, the bullpen has been about replacement level. And that’s with a decent closer. The bullpen has definitely been a big problem.
But, you can’t win games with poor run scoring abilities. Since July 4th, the Cardinals have scored right at 100 runs. That may be (surprisingly) more than the Dodgers and Yankees have scored, but it’s still in the bottom 10 teams of MLB. With an even worse bullpen over that time, it’s tough to win a lot of games. If any of you (I know I have) have been saying the Cardinals offense seems cursed, well you might be right! They have the second worst batting average on balls in play (babip) in all of MLB. Only Toronto is experiencing worse luck on that. Or whatever it is that is happening.
Looking beyond BABIP, there are ways to try and suss out what is going on with the offense. First off, there is almost no power in the Cardinals attack. They have the second lowest ISO (isolated power) in MLB since the 4th of July. So we need to get what power we had back. They’re also not getting on base super well.
What I found out using Statcast
The issues with the Cardinals offense with all the data from this season are that their hitting results show topping the ball too much, so too much ground pounding. They are not elevating the ball enough, and are not barreling the ball enough. They are actually hitting the ball hard, but not effectively.
MLB Ranking by xBA
As you can see, the Cardinals batting average should be, according to xBA (expected batting average) one of the best in MLB! But we are far from that! This is because we are not barreling the ball enough and are suffering from BABIP luck.
MLB Ranking According to Barrel Percentage
The Cardinals need to get better quality of contact. They also are not elevating the ball well.
MLB Rankings by Average Launch Angle
The Cardinals appeared trained to not swing for the fences, almost! How else to describe a full team doing that that should be hitting better by xBA? But look at Milwaukee in dead last, they definitely are not swinging for the fences either. So I don’t know! Is this a hitting philosophy problem, or just something the Cardinals are prone to do? Why are the Brewers so anti-launch angle? What is going on here.
MLB Rankings by Average Exit Velocity
This has me convinced the offense isn’t living up to its true potential. We ARE hitting the ball hard, but not elevating it enough, apparently. Cardinals hitters are swinging over the ball and topping it. But the Cardinals DO have some power, maybe not elite but what we saw towards the beginning of the season wasn’t some mirage.
MLB Rankings by xISO
The Cardinals exit velocity is actually the 6th best in MLB, surprisingly, and now look their expected ISO backs this up because the Cardinals almost crack the top 10 in *expected Isolated Power (their actual results in ISO are BAD, almost dead last in MLB since July 4).
MLB Rankings by xOBP
And here we see the Cardinals should be getting on base more, since July the Cardinals have one of the worst team on-base percentages with only a couple teams worse. But, they should be getting on base with the best of ‘em, apparently! These have been very bad times for the offense, almost inexplicable.
MLB Rankings by xwOBA
Well, well, well, if you have hopes for the Cardinals offense getting out of this rut, you’re not smoking the hopium too much, you are maybe spot on. The offense will improve, if they stop topping the ball and start barreling it.
MLB Rankings for Topped Ball %
Would you look at that, the Brewers are terrible at Topped % while the Cardinals are top 5. Our spinny ground hits are being chopped in the wrong way, it would appear. Great.
Well as you can see, the Cardinals hitters really SHOULD be getting better results, but I suspect they will need to improve their barrel percentage and stop swinging a bit over the ball. I don’t know how they improve this, but it appears to be a major issue. Or maybe not because some teams can get away with it. The Brewers and Cardinals offense shouldn’t be much different. Both teams should be around the top 10 offensively, while one is firmly in the top 10 by wRC+, the other, the Cardinals, are not even a top 20 offense by that measure. Currently, only 8 teams are worse than the Cardinals by wRC+.
So don’t be surprised if the Cardinals offense comes back to do some damage. They can, their average exit velocity as a whole is actually really good. They should be having more opportunities land as hits. If you are hopeful, I can’t really blame you. The starting rotation ain’t bad at all, and the offense has been cursed, apparently… or just not swinging at the right angle, to be real about it. Maybe a bit of both to explain most of July.
1994 Music Picks (Metal Free Edition)
I have 30 albums for you this week, so I am going to be even more brief than usual in my reviews! 1994 was ridiculous. I graduated from high school back in 1994, and it was one of the toughest years of my life.
No particular order, but the first few albums stick out in my mind…
- Kyuss – ‘Welcome To Sky Valley’ can’t really explain it, but I would not call this a heavy metal album, but one of the heaviest psyche rock masterpieces ever recorded in the southern California desert.
- NIN – ‘The Downward Spiral’ if you had to pick one album to represent the 1990s, I think you could do worse than this.
- Portishead – ‘Dummy’ sure Massive Attack were ahead on the triphop thing, but this album put the genre on the map! Still one of the best albums ever.
- Failure – ‘Magnified’ this band doesn’t really sound like any other band but they sound very, very 90s, and this album is a perfect album start to finish. Very heavy alt rock sounds that aren’t quite grunge, aren’t quite industrial, but in a world all its own.
- Heavy Vegetable – ‘The Amazing Undersea Adventures of Aqua Kitty’ imagine what pop punk sounds like in an alternate universe and you might get close to what this all over the map album sounds like. Prog meets pop punk? ok!
- God – ‘The Anatomy of Addiction’ wild dubbed out noise rock, avant-garde punk jazz industrial band from the UK with members of Godflesh and The Bug! One of my favorite albums of all time!
- Jawbox – ‘For Your Own Special Sweetheart’ one of the best indie rock albums you’ll ever hear and For Your Own Special Sweetheart captured the times perfectly. Jawbox at their very best.
- Melvins – ‘Stoner Witch’ much too “not serious” and absurd for heavy metal, but this album sure is heavy.
- Unwound – ‘New Plastic Ideas’ what punk rock should sound more like. There should be more bands like Unwound. But they’re one of a kind, so what you gonna do?
- Today is the Day – ‘Willpower’ one of the most emotionally charged, disturbing, and spiritually moving rock albums you’ll ever experience. Americana.
- Deep Turtle – ‘There’s a Vomitsprinkler in My Liverriver’ here is my weirdo, unexpected find! this album is insane good! It’s just as weird as its name. I don’t know how to describe it but it’s full of recognizable genre based riffs but all strung together to make complex songs similar to something Mr Bungle might do if they were an alt punk band with a lesser budget? Maybe? Whatever it is, I’m glad I found it!
- Thinking Fellers Union Local 282 – ‘Strangers From The Universe’ I have known about this band for years and have liked them, but I have never connected with any of their albums like I have with this one.
- Ween – ‘Chocolate and Cheese’ pretty sure these guys (Dean and Gene Ween in case you didn’t know!) were already legends even by this point, early on in their career, but if not, they were after Chocolate and Cheese!
- Stereolab – ‘Mars Audiac Quintet’ you just cannot go wrong with Stereolab! alt pop, motorik, band of musicians, electronic, you just cannot define them…
- Osamu Sato – ‘Transmigration’ electronic music is starting to take off a lot this year, but still pretty early… anyway, the hidden gem I found is my pick for 1994 electronic music! If you’re into that kind of thing.
- Soundgarden – ‘Superunknown’ grunge masterpiece! Even the lesser known songs are top notch!
- Starflyer 59 – ‘self-titled’ here is my shoegaze pick from 1994!
- Mark Lanegan – ‘Whiskey For the Holy Ghost’ one of the great American singing voices! Highly recommended! Check out Mark Lanegan Band and his solo albums. Screaming Trees were good too, but I feel that he shines on his own.
- Dazzling Killmen – ‘Face of Collapse’ gotta throw my favorite Dazzling Killmen on the list, they’re from St Louis and one of a kind! Noise punk math rock? Mathy noise rock punks?
- MC Solaar – ‘Prose Combat’ the finest French hiphop you’ll ever find. MC Solaar is always on point, spot on.
- Massive Attack – ‘Protection’ the second Massive Attack album may not be the total classic Blue Lines was, but it’s close… almost feels like an EP to me, but on here for the title track alone! Good stuff.
- Cherubs – ‘Heroin Man’ not very politically correct, but I’m sure there were plenty of heroin overdoses in Austin TX in the 1990s, and 1994 was the year Cobain died too, so maybe that’s how they came up with their album title? Anyways, top tier noise rock masterpiece herein!
- Gang Starr – ‘Hard To Earn’ Guru and DJ Premier, hiphop elites, need I say more?
- Drive Like Jehu – ‘Yank Crime’ highly energetic, explosively creative punk rock! I hadn’t heard this one before, but it might be my favorite Drive Like Jehu album I’ve heard.
- Stone Temple Pilots – ‘Purple’ this, along with Jawbox, reminds me of driving around in the summer of 1994. Purple would be a good soundtrack for that summer, if I had to pick just one. It kind of blew up because of The Crow soundtrack, too. Still holds up to this day as an all-time rock’n‘roll classic!
- Killing Joke – ‘Pandemonium’ at this point Killing Joke were moving more towards industrial metal but still retaining their 80s songwriting chops. It’s the first KJ album I ever bought and I still love it, although I listened to it the most that year it came out. The super catchy opening track seals the deal right away.
- Organized Konfusion – ‘The Extinction Agenda’ hidden gem hiphop! Very highly recommended!
- Dog Faced Hermans – ‘Those Deep Buds’ alt punk/art rock at its best with Dog Faced Hermans!
- Beastie Boys – ‘Ill Communication’ this album was everywhere in 1994! and it’s a good one.
- Tom Petty – ‘Wildflowers’ and this album has been everywhere since it came out! a rare occasion where I think an album of this stature pretty much deserves it! Absolutely stacked.
And that’s enough 1994 music to keep anyone occupied for a while! Sure you may know a bunch of it, but there’s plenty of obscurities too. Or maybe it’ll all be familiar to you. Except Deep Turtle. I don’t believe you that you know that one.
Back to baseball! I have one more graphic from baseball savant/statcast for you. It shows how our defense has been performing this season using Outs Above Average (OAA).
The Cardinals play the Yankees at Yankee Stadium at the same time the third day in a row tonight at 6:05. Then they move on to the Rockies. Andre Pallante vs Will Warren, looks like. Pallante has been the better pitcher in this matchup, but ESPN is picking the Yankees to win. Let’s make ESPN look dumb, please.
