Let’s see. What to write about? Jordan Walker and the HR Derby? JJ Wetherholt and his extension or MVP run or ROY run or all three? How about noting that the Cardinals as a team are exactly where they were this time in both 2024 and 2025 (although they got here a different way)? What about that 2026 Amateur Draft? So many topics. But they’ve all been pretty well covered, so as usual, we will zig as everyone zags.
This is an article I’ve been contemplating for a few weeks now but am putting the finishing touches on it as the Cardinals drag into the All Star Break. The end of the Cubs series and the beginning of the Brewers’ series dropped like a thud, with the pitching (particularly the bullpen) badly exposed. Instead of mourning an outcome we could all see coming, I choose to shift my gaze away from the present to a longer view. This is a rebuild year, after all, no?
As usual, the premise of my article is based on following a line of curiosity I have and then putting that into words. Last week, I looked at the Cardinals overall MiLB system. Today, I have narrowed down and parsed through the various starters the Cardinals have throughout their minor league system and taken a look from an organizational depth perspective. Why? I have a few of questions I’m curious about.
- Assuming the Cardinals sell (at least a little bit), what kind of pitching prospect might they be looking at to add to their system?
- Where might they fit such an acquisition in?
- How do they handle all the starters already in the pipeline?
- Where and when is “reliever risk” realized? Can it be anticipated, or does it just happen organically?
Who is in the pipeline?
The first thing I did was create a table of all the starting pitchers, organization-wide. Without it, it is hard to keep all the pitching prospects in my head at the same time. This is a good thing since it means there are lots of interesting pitchers at all the levels. Since I created a table, you get to read a table.
| Level | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | injured List |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | May | McGreevy | Pallante | Leahy | Liberatore | ||
| AAA | Dobbins | Mathews | Mautz | Molina | Hansen | Rincon | Fitts, Roby |
| AA | Doyle | Cijntje | Lin | Hjerpe | Thompson | Davis | |
| A+ | Franklin | Fajardo | Aita | Van Dyke | Odle | Sequera | Clarke |
| A- | Crossland | Martinez | Graham | Holiday | rehab guy | Young |
I laid it out by level-by-level (MLB, AAA, etc.) first, and then placed each pitcher in a column (1 through 6) based my perceived sense of each pitcher’s rank within their respective rotation. Nothing scientific, just based on usage patterns. I should note that this is where the rosters stand on July 6. Things will change a bit between now and when the article publishes. I will do my best to keep this current.
Authors note: True to form, even as I’m drafting this article Cardinals are re-shuffling it with Zimm to MLB (and then to limbo), Aita to AA, Cijntje to AAA. I’m leaving the table unchanged, because I’m not sure how these movements map out. Who drops out of the AAA rotation? Who steps into High-A rotation? All this presages some additional moves TBD.
A couple of notes:
- I didn’t try to engineer the ordinal ranks too much, especially in the 4-6 positions of the rotations. You might disagree with my placement a bit and you might be right, but I don’t see it as crucial to this mental stroll I will euphemistically call analysis.
- The top ranked (1-2) guys at each level is a mix of my perception of them as a prospect (in terms of FV) and my sense of who would be next to be promoted if a need/opportunity arose.
- The #6 guys are not regular starters in all cases, but more guys that get pushed into starter roles as weather or promotions complicate things. I think High-A is really the only team on a true 6-man rotation and even that is inconsistent.
- I don’t know who Palm Beach has as their #5 starter. There have been so many rehab guys run through PB (currently Robberse) that I just put a placeholder there. Don’t be shocked if Clarke is the next name you see here after Robberse and Ixan Henderson after that.
- In general, pitchers would be expected to snake up the development chart. Today’s #1 starter at Low-A could move up and would become tomorrow’s #5 starter at High-A, and so on. In real life, it doesn’t happen in quite this linear fashion (and some people fall away instead of moving up), but I imagine it that way just to have some structure as I look at potential movement in the system. However, one can never tell when an Odle or a Molina will leapfrog the line, until it happens.
Some observations about the depth
In ways, this list appears to have 20-25 guys who could legitimately be viewed as prospects. Meaning that on their current trajectory, MLB is a realistic outcome for most of them. Injuries and performance will undoubtedly complicate this picture, but as of right now, this group might be as deep as back in 2012-2013.
Without quibbling over any one pitcher (is Thompson a legit prospect?), think about it as a group. The Cardinals have excellent depth. As you look at the chart, you realize they don’t really have any gaping holes. In fact, as some of the injured pitchers roll back into action, they are going to displace someone with real talent on this list. Displace doesn’t necessarily mean off the roster, but it will steer some guys to reliever roles (or into trades that re-balance the system).
If they were to sell off Stanek or Nootbaar or May, and seek a pitcher in return, what would they be looking for? Fundamentally, the ask would have to be a pitcher that is better than what is on this list. That is the floor. And it appears that floor has been raised, perhaps quite a bit.
Another depth observation … this list doesn’t even include a few guys that I suspect they’d like to get into starter roles like Dutkanych IV and Findlay. Sometimes, there is just no room at the inn.
Strategically, they really aren’t in rebuild mode anymore. Now it is more about improving on what they have incrementally. It is easier to do this when you have holes in the system where a true prospect represents a significant upgrade. Now, not so easy. For example, if a team offered a High-A or AA pitcher as part of a package for May, who would you willingly displace out of the Springfield or Peoria rotation? Start thinking that through and it might make for some more interesting trades than a straight “sell”.
Let’s talk “reliever opportunity”
You probably notice I didn’t list or rank any MiLB relievers. In my view, there are very few relievers in the system that project to stand on an MLB mound. Gastelum for sure. Hence probably, although his star dims. Maybe Mason Burns before he was injured. That is pretty much it.
It is noticeable the vast gulf of talent (or performance) there is between the starters and the relievers up and down the system. It is enough that it can be tempting to just ignore the relievers. This probably explains why in many circles, people prefer the term “reliever risk” or “failed starter”. In the Cardinals’ case, the abundance of starters is likely to seed their pool of relievers, more from a numbers standpoint that a failure to launch. For some, relief may be a faster path to MLB, which could be good for both player and organization. Given how few MLB rotation spots there are, the bullpen might be their only path to MLB, at least in the Cardinals’ organization. Since these guys are bound to the organization for years, the needs of the MLB staff are important. I’d bet if asked, most of these guys would rather be a reliever on the MLB team than a starter in the minors. Just a guess…
In the modern game, relievers are most valuable if they have lots of whiff in their repertoire, but they do not need a deep pitch mix like a starter does and teams don’t sweat higher walk rates with this style of reliever. Spin is still useful, but no one worries about third time through the order kind of stuff with relievers. A lot are one inning and done, but there is a rising group of MIRP that are basically once through the line-up. 2+ innings (hopefully, a full 3 IP).
Strategically, the Cardinals are probably looking to further the transition from pitch-to-contact (P2C) to spin-and-whiff (SnW) oriented pitchers that are more well suited for these high leverage reliever roles. I don’t think this means abandoning pitch-to-contact, but P2C is more starter oriented and perhaps bulk or MIRP types than high leverage. So, the way I see it…if you are going to get your high leverage relievers out of the starter pool, you need more SnW types in the starter pool. My guess is, we may see this aspect of organizational improvement play out more in the draft than the trade deadline.
With the 2026 draft in the books, we see that the Cardinals indeed focused on guys who might project to high-leverage relievers, looking for live fastballs, spin-and-whiff and not demeriting fringy command. While they seemed to more focus on hitters early, one can wonder where pitchers like Kuhns, Montesa, Randall fit. For fun, study these guys and try and picture inserting them in the table above.
From a deadline and off-season standpoint, it seems possible that other organizations lacking depth in their pipeline might come to view one or more of the Cardinals “reliever risk” guys as potentially having more value to them (as a starter) than they will with the Cardinals (as a reliever). Someone like a Brycen Mautz, who is about to get passed up by 3-4 guys from AA. This may present the Cardinals with opportunities to consolidate or churn in ways they really haven’t had in some time.
Let’s look at timelines
One can never really tell how long it will take an individual pitcher to develop enough to begin a sojourn down MLB lane. One artificial constraint that guides, though, is their spot (or lack thereof) on the 40-man roster, which must be done within 4 years (generally). Do the Cardinals ever pick high school pitchers? They get five years, no?
Mathews and Lin will need to be protected on the 40-man roster this fall, so that effectively starts their clock. Being on the 40-man, either or both could find their way into the 2027 Cardinal bullpen if their command doesn’t improve enough to advance in front of the starters already ahead of them. This outcome would not hurt my feelings a bit.
At AAA, Hansen and Rincon are both Rule V eligible and look the most displaceable. Not necessarily from a talent standpoint (ok, maybe a little), but both require protection to guarantee their spot in the organization. If they aren’t protected, it is arguable that the Cardinals might want to look at acquiring a prospect that does not require 40-man protection and can fit at a lower level, which then would open up 2 slots in the AAA rotation either later this year or next season. Those spots might better be used on guys like Doyle or Lin (or Roby or Fitts or Hjerpe).
So, from a timeline standpoint, those four guys (Mathews, Lin, Rincon, Hansen) will have some transaction in their near future. The rest are either on the 40-man or do not need protection until after the 2027 season, earliest.
Another timeline-oriented decision could be in store for Hjerpe. He counts in the SnW profile. If the Cardinals wish to continue his development as a starter, they will have to burn one of two remaining options next year to do so. Or they could imagine a role for him on the left-side of the bullpen, which will be vacated by Romero and Bruihl this off-season (if not sooner). Decisions. Decisions. Funny how a ticking clock can push a decision towards “reliever opportunity”.
Let’s talk pathways
A couple of years ago, there was frustration among Cardinal fans because established veterans were “blocking” promising young players. Arenado played, while Gorman yo-yo’ed around. Contreras moved to first while Burleson continued to roam the outfield. Fedde started while McGreevy toiled in the Land of Blue Suede Shoes. Etc.
We may see another, similar phenomenon develop with the pitching. Ostensibly, the Cardinals will come to 2027 spring camp with Leahy, Liberatore, Pallante and McGreevy as established starters under contract control. That leaves one spot in the MLB rotation. Behind them will lurk Dobbins, Fitts, Mathews, Mautz and potentially Roby. Depth is good, but if health is good, too, there really won’t be room to move but one of Lin, Doyle and Hjerpe into the AAA rotation, effectively stalling their development. Assuredly, health will equalize some of this, but unlikely enough to eliminate the logjam. Outcomes? Some of these guys may become relievers and some of these guys may get packaged to fill MLB team needs (third base, anyone?) or acquire younger prospects.
Closing
Ok, this is a future look so I’m not closing, I’m just stopping for now. This discussion will recur, particularly as we get a little distance away from the draft.
The need to move players up in a timely fashion, roster rules and the depth in the system may well conspire to make for some interesting deadline and off-season trades. Likely not the traditional rebuild/sell-off model where expiring contracts are dumped for wild card prospects. I am anticipating more strategic trades in the next round. We’ll know more about what that might look like after the draft.
Above I noted how few MiLB relievers have MLB profiles. I believe the MiLB starter pool is really the entirety of the coming MLB pitching pool. In this viewpoint, the depth looks a bit thinner. From this, I begin to suspect the next step in the development of the pitching pipeline is to bring more high-end starters in to push more of the MLB prospects into the reliever pool. Ie. more competition. The floor has been raised, now it is time to raise the ceiling.
In the end, it appears that the Cardinals potentially have a surplus in the pitching area in addition to catching, although it begs the question of can a team really have a surplus of pitching? It is less clear if the surplus starters profile into strong reliever candidates. Can that “surplus” be consolidated into a higher-end starter? or higher-end bullpen help? As other teams lacking depth (but having MLB talent) take stock of their future and recognize their backslide, such as the Astros (Brown), Padres (King), Angels (Soriano, Detmers), Giants (Webb), it seems like some possibilities could materialize somewhere. And the Cardinals just might have the depth these organizations need to improve.
