The Cardinals are in the midst of a fascinating rebuild. Unlike most rebuilds, this one does not involve tanking. Quite the opposite, the 2026 Cardinals find themselves in the #1 wild card slot at the time of writing. Some of you might rightfully argue that the rebuild really began at the trading deadline late in the 2023 season, had a brief lull when they tried to compete on the “pitching, pitching, pitching” premise of 2024 and then restarted the rebuild in 2025 when it had become painfully obvious that the now dismantled 2022 offensive juggernaut was no more.
So here we are in mid-2026 and one of the most vexing challenges in major league baseball continues to … vex. When is the right time and what is the right approach to incorporate a young prospect onto the major league roster?
First, I want to discriminate between a “prospect” and a depth (or role) player. The depth player promotion decisions, while also not easy, involves some attributes not found in the prospect player promotion decision.
- Depth/role players often don’t come with service time calculation concerns. They are often a bit on the older side (see: Velazquez, Torres) and many have a non-zero clock already. For prospects, whom teams can see the possibility of significant future value, when to start their service clock in a not uncommon consideration. I’m not suggesting the Cardinal’s practice service time manipulation (they do not appear to, ever), but they are not blind to such situations like waiting until Aug 15 to promote Baez would preserve the potential of a PPI pick in future years if he emerges as hoped for. I think of this similarly to how they handled Masyn Winn’s original promotion in late 2023.
- While all players need a 40-man spot to get promoted, teams can be more sensitive about pushing aside talent to add a depth/role player. On the flip side, when ready, prospects pretty easily push aside someone at the tail end of the 40-man.
- Depth/role players who get promoted are just that … role players. They will fit in certain role and with that will not come a team commitment to a minimum amount of playing time. Prospects, on the other hand, often don’t get promoted until the team is certain (and willing) they can allocate a significant amount of playing to said prospect. Generally, teams view it as preferable that a “prospect” play every day at AAA and not sit on the bench in MLB, unlike the role players such as Fermin, Saggese, Velazques, Torres.
- While everyone goes through an adjustment period when promoted, depth/role players don’t get a lot of luxury in this regard. There won’t be a lot of tolerance for the ups-and-downs that come with adjusting to MLB competition. If you are a RH hitter, you will be expected to hit the lefties and the opportunities may not come in bunches, so take advantage of them when you get them. If you are prospect, the team will be prepared to adopt a “develop at the MLB level” approach and will live with the ups-and-downs, ala. Walker, Gorman. To a point.
- Exposure is a key issue. Every player has strengths and flaws and how they will get exposed and leveraged at the MLB level is somewhat projectable, but this is not an exact science and sometimes teams just have to jump in the pool and hope it’s not too cold. Depth/role players have an advantage here, because their exposure will be tuned to leverage their strengths and avoid their weaknesses. Prospects are anticipated to emerge as everyday contributors, so they will not get such protection. Are they ready to handle this and the struggles that may come with it?
This is not an exhaustive list, but I felt the need to draw the distinctions. I will address Joshua Baez’s case as a prospect, and I won’t be comparing him to a Nelson Velazquez or Bryan Torres who are role players. Baez, when brought up, will not be brought up to replace their role. He may displace one of them on the 26-man roster, but he will also displace at least one other player who gets significantly more playing time now than they will when Baez arrives.
This is crucial to embrace, because it is easy for fans to look at a player like Velazquez and wonder why they don’t bring up Baez. Baez is probably already the superior player, both offensively and defensively, so why not bring him up? Why? Because of the considerations listed above. Baez vs. Velazques is a red herring, or perhaps more appropriately, an apples-to-oranges discussion that misses the key considerations management thinks about and tries to balance as they seek to introduce a prospect into the major leagues.
The Cardinals want Baez to succeed. He brings a mix of talents that begin to approach the coveted 5-tool player label. 4-tool players aint bad, either. The potential and value are obvious to all. But the success is not guaranteed and so the risk is equally obvious. For every supporter that sees a future star, there is a detracter that sees a future less than Joey Gallo. Will he hit? What about the K-rate and BB-rate? How do they translate?
A Cardinal executive recently described Baez’ promotion as inevitable and after that, time will tell on the strikeouts and the walks and the power output he will bring. I do think there are a couple of key questions to answer before the “inevitable” promotion occurs, though.
Where would he play?
Some will say let him play all 3 outfield positions rotationally, and DH some. Mathematically, it is possible to envision such a rotation providing enough PAs to allow him to adjust, grow, develop. Practically, the burdens of adjusting defensively to three positions simultaneously is not a strategy conducive to facilitating his success. Throw in the DH penalty and the adjustments of that role, and they’d be essentially putting challenges in his way on top of the one main one he will encounter – can he hit MLB pitching like his does MiLB pitching? Why put obstacles out in front of him? Won’t he have enough?
So, where? Some will say LF, displacing Nootbaar, who is nearing the end of his time in the Lou anyways, with his own service time and contract status. Fair point. Quite possible that is the decision that getsmade, either that the trade deadline or the off-season. But take a look at Baez’ story and see how many times he has played LF. Not many. While he is unlikely to struggle the way Jordan Walker struggled with the third-to-outfield position change, there would still be a new hurdle to cross for him. Are you ready to introduce that into a pennant race?
Well, then how about CF? He has played there a lot recently but does not have a long history there. Defensively, it is a position where instincts, reads, routes and jumps are crucial. Is he ready for that? His offensive profile could be fascinating in that position and tolerance for ups-and-downs would be higher, since that position hasn’t really been a fountain of offensive production since …. Bader? Offensively, the bar is lower, ostensibly facilitating an easier pathway to success. But can he it handle defensively? I have no clue. My experience is that the defensive features players bring to MLB are often significantly different than what is described in scouting reports. Bader himself was such an example – a guy with question marks about his D turned out to be Gold Glove caliber (or near it, anyway). We are also watching Blaze Jordan make plays at third base that seem to surprise everyone. So who knows until we see it? But are they willing to commit Baez to CF? This would push Church to a 4th OF role, which may be best suited for him (or may not).
How about RF? Oh, there is another guy there. Someone named Jordan Walker.
Another key question…
How will his profile influence the overall line-up construction?
To-date, the strength of the Cardinals has been their somewhat tenacious offense. It is not a juggernaut, but strong enough that they are top ten in MLB in several key categories (not power) and that is without Nootbaar for much of the season. Strong enough to overcome some poor pitching. Key attributes of that offense are low K-rate and pretty good OBP. So, they get on base, and they have more productive at bats than most other teams. They have good hitters but could use some more HR pop.
But where does he hit? To start with, if he displaces either Church or Nootbaar he will upset the L-R-L algorithm and make this a more right leaning line-up. Seems likely he would get the 6th spot behind Nootbaar. We know from his history that he tends to K a lot as he adjusts to a new level, so expect that to continue into MLB. He isn’t terribly selective, running O-swing % in the same neighborhood as Alec Burleson but without the plate coverage Burly gets, running an O-contacts% about half of Burleson. He doesn’t walk a ton, but he doesn’t refuse the walk with a BB% of ~8%. His likely contribution to the line-up will be to increase the K-rate of the line-up, lower the OBP but raise the S part of OPS. The HR park factor for Busch III for RH hitters could bite him, as it runs a 78 (100 is average). In other words Busch suppresses RH power by 22%. That is a stiff premium. How does that affect the recipe as a whole? Will this offense remain tenacious and benefit from extra pop, or will there now be too many guys that strike out with runners in scoring position?
Introducing a new hitter to the everyday line-up changes the nature of said line-up. I am curious the impact Baez will have on the overall output of the group. If I had to guess, this is a mystery enough that they’d prefer to see the answer come later in the season when the playoff position is more clear.
