The St. Louis Cardinals have passed every test thrown their way so far and are in the midst of another as they take on the NL Central in all but one series over the next two-plus weeks. How the rest of May ends up could tell us whether our expectations have shifted for what was supposed to be a rebuild year as the Cardinals could realistically be in first or last in the division by the first weekend of June. By that time, we will be more than 1/3 of the way through the season and I believe we can officially shift away from the overused small sample size arguments, if you have not already.
As we gain clarity on our true expectations for this season, I do not believe we are yet in the middle of the next great Cardinals team, although there are likely pieces here that will be involved with that next iteration of greatness. While we can figure JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, and possibly Ivan Herrera and Masyn Winn will be key cogs for that era, Alec Burleson may just miss the cut simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Despite being one of the most consistent and dependable hitters on the roster, Burly’s age and position could have him out of St. Louis before he is able to see the fruits of his labor ripen up.
I originally had this article asking if Burleson is still underrated, but decided to make the change to under appreciated because of the things he does that the rest of the league may not understand by simply reading the stats. Burleson was a second round pick in the 2020 draft (a draft that only the Cardinals can be proud of), and made his major league debut just two years later. That is already impressive for a guy that maxed out as the Cardinals’ 10th-best prospect by MLB Pipeline, but even more so is the fact that he has not played a game in the minors since his first promotion.
Each year, he has taken his offense to the next level, going from a .691 OPS in his first full big league season in 2023 to now sitting at an .827 OPS before the Reds series after coming off a utility Silver Slugger award last year. His numbers improve every year, raising his OPS+, walk rate, and production stats on a per rate basis since he did miss time last year with injury. What has surprisingly gone in the wrong direction, however, is his value as a defender. Since breaking into the league, the lefty slugger has spent time in left field, right field, and first base, with more time at the cold corner last season than his previous three seasons combined. With Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras manning first base during Burly’s tenure, there simply were not enough innings to go around to Burleson until this year.
Alec Burleson’s underrated defense is tanking his overall value in an unfair way
After the still heartbreaking (to me) trade of Contreras, Burly has unofficially retired his outfield glove for the big pancake glove at first and, to the eye test, has been a solid contributor with the leather. When the eye test meets analytical measures, however, Burleson has technically been one of the worst defenders at first in all of baseball. Over the past two seasons, Burleson has spent 89 games at first base and according to FanGraphs, that minimal time there has totaled a -7 defensive value. This year, among the 19 first basemen who have taken at least 150 plate appearances while playing the position, Burleson is ranked 16th in defense, checking in with a -4 defensive value, as well as a -1 Outs Above Average and 1 Defensive Run Saved. Having watched the vast majority of the Cardinals’ 49 games this year, I came to the conclusion that there is simply no advanced metric that can fully grasp defensive value at first base.
When taking in Burleson’s offense and defense, FanGraphs pegged the slugger as a 1.2 fWAR player which ranks him as 9th-best in the league among primary first baseman. Looking further, though, Burly ranks 25th by measure of defensive value, falling below 30-grade fielder Munetaka Murakami, utility man Spencer Steer, and the rumbling Jake Burger. The other outlets are also down on Burleson’s glove with Baseball Savant giving him a 0 in Fielding Run Value (44th percentile) and -1 Outs Above Average (27th percentile), which again tells me that my eyes are either really messed up or the more likely fact that first base defense is tough to value.
Taking the metrics out of it, Burly has been asked to be the consistent piece of a Cardinals organization that has been going through a rollercoaster stretch for the entirety of his big league career. To his credit, he has taken every challenge in stride and challenging himself to become a more complete baseball player. On a team without any veteran leadership, Burleson has been a voice and example for the youngsters, while also being a solid foundation for Marmol to rally his team around. The issue, though, is that as the only veteran (until Nootbaar comes back), Burleson might miss the timeline for the Cardinals return to relevance if this year goes south.
Because of his early rise to the major leagues, Burleson will approach four years of service time and will be arbitration eligible for this offseason. This will put him as a free agent following the 2028 campaign, putting him firmly in the conversation of extension or trade piece in the next couple of years. Currently, the first base depth is thin behind Burleson, but that is typically a position that can be acquired relatively easily through trade or with cash. If Bloom feels that Burly will still be hitting at his current level or better in his age-30 and later seasons, an extension should be on the table despite his struggles against lefties. With Burly continuing to show his ability to adapt and improve, putting a ceiling on his potential might be premature.
Behind Burleson is Blaze Jordan, who I personally love as a prospect but wonder what the Cardinals feel about his future. Jordan has also played more third base this year so most of the first base starts have gone to 30-year-old Bligh Madris. Among prospects, Leonardo Bernal has played first this year while splitting time behind the plate with Jimmy Crooks and that could be a way to get the switch-hitter promoted quicker as the catching situation continues to be cloudy. Outside of those options, Ivan Herrera has been a common talking point from fans who say he should just simply move to first base, a position he has spent a grand total of eight games while playing in the Caribbean Series winter league in 2023 and I would rather not have a player learn a new position during the season.
Alec Burleson is an established major league hitter who continues to get better every season. He is still just 27-years-old but has been around the big leagues so long that it feels like he is even older. That could also just be because of the beard. Because of the extremely young team surrounding him and an unclear timeline in the organization’s expected return to relevance, Burly could find himself in an awkward in-between phase like teammate Lars Nootbaar may be in when he returns from the injured list in the next couple of weeks.
