HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY to those in your lives!
By almost all accounts, the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals have surpassed expectations so far this year and are well on pace to blow past preseason win projections, which has made my wallet happy. It has been a full team effort so far, with the lineup coming with plenty of surprises and great performances, and the pitching staff chipping in with solid games here and there, although less consistent than we would like to see. Regardless of those frustrations, the Cardinals are still above .500 and in playoff contention as we approach the 1/4 mark of the season. If the offense slumps, though, is there anyone in the organization that can jolt the lineup back into what we have come to expect from an electric top of the lineup?
To answer that question, though, that means someone is going to have to be removed from the overachieving lineup, an offense that currently measures as 4% above league-average and top-10 in the league in power stats. As with every team’s lineup, there are holes in the Cardinals’ normal alignment. Outside of the top half of the order, the bottom 4-5 players have had runs of good, followed by longer, more painful runs of bad. By measure of wRC+, spots 1-3 in the order all fall in the top 10 of baseball, while only the seven-spot in the lineup ranks among those top teams. In the other five lineup spots, none are greater than 14th-best in baseball.
Who will be the first Cardinals player to lose their regular playing time?
The starting lineup is a point of conversation literally every game, with fans wondering how Oli Marmol could bat someone in a certain spot or why another player is getting an off day despite “getting paid millions to play a game for three hours a day”. I do my best to stay out of those unintelligent conversations, having been in a clubhouse and see the day to day for how a baseball team works, of course nowhere near the level these guys grind everyday. And yes, it is a grind. Okay, stepping off the soapbox and moving along.
To avoid talking more about the spots in the order, let me shift to talking about the actual players and their production at the plate. I think we are all in agreement that JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn are written in pen, barring injury, of getting the starter at bats for the entire season and beyond as they look to cement themselves as the core of the next great Cardinals team. That makes sense as each of those five players has rated as above-average offensive contributors and could be fixtures in figuring out what the next step is in this rebuild.
Of the remaining four spots, the players with the most at-bats so far this year are catcher Pedro Pages, center fielder Victor Scott II, outfielder Nathan Church, and third baseman Nolan Gorman. Now, as I figure out which of these players will be the first to lose out on their playing time, I will try to keep my personal emotions and expectations for them aside and attempt to be realistic in who is out first. In my preseason expectations, I had Victor Scott II nowhere near the starting lineup for this season or beyond, but the word around the organization was that he had changed his swing and the staff was excited for what he was going to bring this year. Nathan Church was truly just an afterthought for me, a placeholder until the next bus from Memphis came up or Lars Nootbaar became healthy. There was never a doubt that Pages was going to remain the starting catcher, even as they kept Yohel Pozo on the roster and had Herrera working his way back behind the plate. And Nolan Gorman, the one I was highest on coming into the year, was supposed to finally get his runway (no his 1500 PAs coming into the year was not enough, in my opinion) and get his at-bats against righties and lefties while slotting in the middle of the order.
So, where are we now?
Victor Scott II has turned it on the last couple of weeks, finally tallying his first barrel of the year with his first homer, but his current “hot streak” still has him hitting below .200 with an OPS that starts with a four. The whole idea was that VSII was going to find ways on base, with a punch and Judy single, bunt, or a walk, but he is currently reaching base just 25% of the time, severely limiting his premier speed tool. Because of his inconsistent on-base skills, Scott has six stolen bases (off pace from his preseason goal of 70) but caught thrice after being thrown out just four times in 38 attempts last year. His defense has also fallen below his normal Gold Glove levels, settling in as simply above-average, but there are plenty of solid defensive center fielders who can provide more at the dish. Because of this, he is my first man out in terms of the lineup. The issue with this whole exercise, though, is that there has to be someone ready to take that spot. For me, that moves Nathan Church over to center, leaving left field open for the next man up.
The fun answer would be that Joshua Baez gets his shot to play left field in the bigs, at least until Lars Nootbaar is healthy and ready to return. That would give Baez a low-risk opportunity, albeit with a timeline, assuming that Noot returns at the end of May as has been reported. It would also give him consistent at-bats, which is the biggest reason I am against top prospect promotions unless there is an everyday spot open. Baez was off to a slow start with Memphis, but has found another level in recent weeks, raising his overall season line to .250/.336/.500 with seven homers and six stolen bases, but has seen his strikeout rate back at pre-2025 levels. For me, I am saying lets wait on a Baez promotion for another couple of weeks.
With Chaim Bloom stating at the beginning of the year that he wants to keep guys around without having to jump through the 40-man hoops, that means it would likely be Jose Fermin as the next man up for the daily left field reps. It is not attractive, fun, or really even exciting, but he is already on the roster and has performed better than VSII in his limited opportunities. The team obviously is high on Fermin, keeping him around rather than Thomas Saggese (before calling Saggese back up) as Fermin is out of options and done well so far. Whether they are worried about another team claiming him, or they truly think he’s a viable major league player remains to be seen, but for now, he is the next man up in the outfield for the Cardinals. I was hoping Saggese could flash something with the bat like he did as a Texas League MVP, but that has not come to pass just yet.
Nolan Gorman has unfortunately been much of the same with the bat so far this year despite the lower strikeout rate. That improved discipline has not resulted in more power, as his OPS is in line with his past three seasons. What has been impressive, though, is his above-average defense at third, which I expected after bouncing between third, second, and the bench with irregularity while Nolan Arenado was in town. I have constantly called him a “more athletic Kyle Schwarber”, hoping that he could hit 30+ homers while actually contributing on the defensive end, but I may be willing to admit those hopes were too high, even though Gorman is still just 25-years-old. I am not ready to pull the plug on him since he still has the chance to do some damage with the bat and has at least shown some improvements in his approach. There is also the fact that nobody is ready to take over for him at third just yet.
My preseason pick to click was Blaze Jordan and I am still feeling good about that with his scorching start to the Triple-A season after ending last year with a whimper. Currently, Blaze is hitting .322 with a 148 wRC+ with eight homers and stellar strikeout rate. His has spent more time at third base then first so far and has yet to make an error at the hot corner, so he could be getting closer to that major league debut. Like I just mentioned, if Blaze were to be called up, I want it to be for everyday opportunity, otherwise I could see his career going the same way as Luken Baker. A Gorman injury or complete incompetence would open up that shot, but beyond that, we may have to continue waiting on the Jordan promotion to St. Louis.
Onto Pages. The Ivan Herrera move back to catcher has been as expected, solid receiver with an inability to throw runners out but a spectacular knowledge of the strike zone and ABS challenges. Because of Herrera’s arm, the organization’s infatuation with Pages’ game calling, and Pages’ knack for the random clutch hit, the split behind the plate should be expected to continue, even with Jimmy Crooks playing well in Memphis. Despite the mid-.600s OPS for the entirety of his career, Pages continues to see time as the starting catcher, a role best suited for any of the other top catching prospects in the organization, but Pages profiles as a just fine backup catcher on a contending team. As a placeholder while Herrera hopes his arm bounces back and the next level of catchers approach the bigs, Pages is doing his job with the Cardinals.
The whole idea of the 2026 season was for the Cardinals to get answers on the vast majority of their roster. As we approach the quarter mark of the year, it looks like they are on their way of doing just that. However, even if the team continues to outperform those preseason expectations, we should not expect major turnover with the big league roster as the fact-finding mission continues. A worst-case scenario for Chaim Bloom would be if he were to give up on one of these youngsters too early and Cardinal Nation would get unfair flashbacks of Randy Arozarena. The next man up will likely have to continue waiting for their next opportunity.
