Jordan Walker’s first month has contained some of the highest highs any player is ever going to reach, and some familiar lows. How do we rationalize what we’ve seen so far?
We’re about one month into the baseball season for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals. In the grand sweep of the season, this is but the opening line. It’s too early to draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen thus far. But, if you’re like me and watching essentially every inning, it feels like a lot of baseball has been played. Which brings me to a thought I’ve been wrestling with for the last few games. What’s the rational way to react to Jordan Walker’s start?
Let’s go to caveat land first. He should play the whole season no matter what – this is the year to learn what he’s really got in the tank. It’s still early. We’ve seen two versions of Walker and that will likely normalize as the year goes on. He’s the same age as JJ Wetherholt and has had an odd career track up to this point. (Now, hold these residents of caveat land in your head all the way through – please and thank you!)
Through roughly 30 games, we’ve seen two versions of Jordan Walker. Let’s start with the Thanos version of him first. (Yes, I’m using Thanos positively here as a kind of destroyer-of-worlds-template in favor of the Cardinals.) From the hallowed stretch of April 4th through April 16th, Jordan Walker turned the difficulty level down to Rookie and treated the league like MLB the Show. Let’s just laugh together at some highlights: .370/.408/.848, a .478 ISO, a 246 wRC+, and 7 homers. Try to export those numbers to another country and Walker would be charged with war crimes.
He ran career lows in groundball rates, sprayed the ball all over the field, and ran a miniscule 6.5% weak contact rate. The eye test confirmed this. Every ball off his bat was a scud missile buried somewhere in the side of the wall or doing architectural damage to the stadium beyond the fence. Every single problem we wanted him to solve was solved to a Sherlock Holmes degree in this microdose of games.
It went beyond the numbers, though. Walker seemed in control at the plate. He was jumping on hittable pitches early and was patient on balls out of the zone. He didn’t seem to be lunging like Richard Simmons at every slider low and away. The defense was quite improved (still is!) and he was even stealing bases like Victor Scott II. (Or, not like Victor Scott II – yikes.) In a nutshell, it was everything that everyone who roots for the Cardinals had ever wanted for Jordan Walker. He was a national topic – Eno Sarris was buying in!
Ok, now take a deep breath. Remember, there have been two Jordan Walkers so far. From April 17th through this writing (April 29th), Jordan Walker has looked like Old Jordan Walker. As Ecclesiastes says, there is a time for dancing and a time for mourning. Let us mourn together: .216/.333/.243 (the OBP isn’t bad there!), an .027 ISO, a 78 wRC+, and one extra base hit.
It’s worse than that (do you still have you citizens from caveat land on board?), he struck out 37.8% of the time and doubled his groundball rate from his thermonuclear streak. He’s been lunging at low and away sliders like I lunge at toasted ravioli (just trust me!), and working seemingly every single count to 0-2 immediately. It’s been ugly the last couple of weeks – and it’s been ugly in a recognizable way.
So, let’s step back. What do we make of this first month? It seems to be a matter of perspective. If you told Cardinal fans at the beginning of the year that Walker would have a 151 wRC+ after the first month, they’d probably ask you how someone got ahold of Yadier Molina’s blood for ritual purposes. That’s an unqualified success – no doubt.
However, it’s more complicated than that because of the nature of his performance. He went from Aaron Judge lookalike to Old Jordan Walker all in the same month. This is where opinions are going to vary. If it scares you to see the old habits rear their heads, then you’ve got all the ammunition you need to worry. If you’re thrilled that we’ve seen Peak Jordan Walker, then you’re probably feeling good that we’ve seen what’s possible from a 23 year old.
In short, Jordan Walker is a walking Rorschach test. His ink blot can be read in either direction you’d like to read it. Obviously, as he plays more this season, that ink blot will begin to take a more definite shape that we can use to adjust our expectations.
I can’t and won’t tell you how to fan, but I will share my perspective. I’m worried. We have an enormous amount of data that tells us that Jordan Walker may never figure it out. He turned into an MVP for roughly two weeks and then reverted back. I’m not rooting against him. I’m just concerned that his body of work shows that he’s back to the approach and habits that landed him in an early career tailspin in the first place. I’d like nothing more than for Jordan Walker to develop into the cleanup hitter of the future for the Cardinals. I’m not ruling it out by any stretch. His underlying physical gifts are such that he could flip the switch at any second by refining his approach again. That’s what I want. I just don’t know if the Cardinals inkblot is going to deliver.
Let me know how you’re feeling in the comments. And, as always, thanks for reading!
