With the Cardinals moving on from a pair of veterans and sitting 6.5 games back from a playoff spot, it’s time for them to turn to youth.
As J.P. discussed yesterday, The St. Louis Cardinals moving on from Tommy Pham (and Shawn Armstrong) wasn’t something they had to do but it was the right move. The Cardinals did right by those guys and let them latch on with teams either in the playoffs in the case of Pham, or still chasing a wild card spot in the case of Armstrong.
But it’s those moves that signal an admission of defeat. The Cardinals aren’t going to the playoffs and they know it. I mean, technically it’s still possible. They are 6.5 games back from the final wild card with 26 games to play. They would also need to move ahead of 4 teams in the standings.
So, again, it’s still possible so it’s not particularly likely that the Cardinals will make the playoffs which brings us to our topic today.
How can the Cardinals best use the remaining 26 games in the month of September. My answer is simple. Don’t keep doing the same thing. There’s no point to that.
Instead, I want to see the Cardinals fully embrace the youth movement for the final month and give regular chances to young players who might be able to help the team next year.
This is complex, of course, with the relatively new rule allowing for the expansion of the roster to 28 players instead of 40, but it’s still possible for the Cardinals to give some legitimate playing time to prospects in September.
The Outfield
I want to start with the outfield picture because the Cardinals already addressed what they needed to here. Jordan Walker is back in the major leagues and will be playing every day according to Oli Marmol. The same should be true of Victor Scott and the same should be true of Lars Nootbaar since still has 3 years of arbitration ahead of him, he should also continue to play.
There’s the 3 starting spots.
You might notice that Alec Burleson wasn’t mentioned. That was on purpose. Alec Burleson isn’t an outfielder. He might play the outfield but he’s not an outfielder. His -6 DRS and -9 OAA in just 526 innings tell us that.
He can still be in the lineup but the Cardinals shouldn’t be trying to fit him into a position that he doesn’t play well and will likely never play well. If he was faster then maybe it would be a different story but Burleson’s 12th percentile spring speed doesn’t offer much promise for improvement.
So the fourth outfield spot can and will likely go to Michael Siani who I expect to be player who takes one of the two expanded roster spots as his rehab in the minors seems to be completed.
The Infield
This is where I want to talk about Alec Burleson. I want to see Burleson get some time at first base to close out the year because that’s the most natural place he can help the team in the future.
Even with a 115 wRC+ this year Burleson has only had a 1.2 fWAR season because of the negative effects of his poor defense in the outfield. If he could be an average defender at any position it would be a huge boost to his profile and to the team’s defense.
That position might just be first base.
There’s two pieces of evidence for this. The first is the numbers. In a tiny sample size of 94 innings this year, Burleson has actually been positive in both the OAA (1) and the DRS (1) column. That hasn’t been true over the course of his career as he has put up 1 DRS and -3 OAA in 227 innings over the past 3 major league seasons but that’s still more promising than Burleson’s performance in the outfield.
The second piece of evidence is straight from the mouth of Burleson. He came onto the VEB podcast after the 2022 season and mentioned that the position he feels most comfortable at is first base.
Can he play the position effectively? That’s what I want to find out this month.
Are the Cardinals going to bench Paul Goldschmidt? Probably not. But can they give him a string of games as the DH to open the position for Burleson? Absolutely.
Goldschmidt’s contract expires at the end of the season and, based on the way he has played this year, the Cardinals have no reason to bring him back next year unless it’s on incredibly team friendly terms.
That means Burleson should get an audition for the starting first base job. If he can handle the position effectively, he would offer an improvement on Goldschmidt’s production (at least based on this year’s numbers) at a fraction of the cost. And instead of putting Goldschmidt’s money back into Goldschmidt this offseason, the Cardinals could put it elsewhere to improve the roster.
So Burleson should get a real chance to play first base this month and show that he can be the starter at that position moving forward.
The rest of the infield picture is easy to see. Brendan Donovan will continue to cover second base with Masyn Winn playing shortstop and Nolan Arenado playing the hot corner. At catcher, Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera can continue to compete for the backup catcher job next season, with Herrera in particular needing to win it if he’s going to stay in the organization as he’s out of option years next year.
The Pitching Staff
I already mentioned that Michael Siani is the likely recipient of the first additional roster spot and it seems like Steven Matz will be the recipient of the second one. It’s a little disappointing that both of those roster spots won’t be going to prospects but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals can’t still give some minor league starters some exposure to major league hitters.
If the team wanted to waive the white flag and let Armstrong and Pham join new teams, I would have actually considered adding two additional names to the list of players on waivers – Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.
There’s not guarantee another team would pick up either of those guys but two things are clear. The Cardinals aren’t making a playoff push and neither pitcher should have their team option picked up for next year.
So what’s the point of having them on the roster and keeping them in the rotation? If the Cardinals have waived the white flag this year and neither Gibson nor Lynn will be on the team next year then they should be taking starts from players who could conceivably take a back-end rotation spot in 2025.
But that doesn’t matter now. Gibson and Lynn are on the team. But that doesn’t mean the Cardinals need to keep giving them starts. Either or both of those player could (and should) move to the bullpen to make space for younger options.
Michael McGreevy should get a run in the majors and perhaps one of the other minor league starters on the 40-man roster, either Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, or Zack Thompson. Sem Robberse is also a part of this group but he is just getting back on the mound an injury.
Some people would probably love to see Quinn Mathews get a chance to start but I’m not there yet. It’s not worth adding him to the 40-man roster yet and while he has moved quickly through the minor leagues, putting him in the majors after just 1 Triple-A start would be rushing him a bit too much.
But McGreevy has already debuted and made a good start in his first major league outing and while Graceffo has struggled a bit in Triple-A this year, he too has debuted and has been a pretty highly rated prospect in the system for a few years.
The question isn’t how to get McGreevy and Graceffo or someone else into the rotation, it’s how to get them onto an already full roster.
The good news is that there is at least one and potentially two easy roster casualties. I’m thinking Kyle Leahy and Riley O’Brien here.
Would it be helpful to see both of them get innings this month as the Cardinals try to prepare their pitching staff for next year? Sure. But the rotation is more important than the bullpen and if McGreevy can pitch his way into the #5 spot, he would allow the Cardinals to re-direct a large sum of money to another spot on the roster.
I would prefer to see Riley O’Brien get some run at the major league level in September than Kyle Leahy so I also wouldn’t mind seeing only McGreevy come to the majors and replace one of the incumbent back end starters while Riley O’Brien gets to show whether or not he can handle a full time spot in the bullpen.
Final Thoughts
If the Cardinals are cutting bait with their veterans as an admission that they aren’t making a playoff push then the Cardinals shouldn’t just do the same thing in September that they have been doing all season.
Now is the time to get young players into games and call up prospects to see if they can help next year’s team That means Alec Burleson should get a run at first base, Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera should compete with each other, and Michael McGreevy, if not Gordon Graceffo too, should get a chance to make more starts at the major league level.
And why stop there? If the Cardinals decide that Thomas Saggese should get a chance to strut his stuff in the majors then I won’t be complaining. If they want to call up other prospects and commit to playing them then more power to them. That’s exactly what teams outside the playoffs should be doing in September.
The Cardinals have the ability to do all of these things in an effort to set themselves up for the future and I’m hoping that September brings something of a youth movement to St. Louis.
Thanks for reading.
