Introduction
This short article finishes my effort to articulate some of the observations I made during my visit to Spring Training, 2026. I saved what I think is the best for last.
Sidebar: Where I work out, one of the guys that runs the place is an avid Cardinal fan. So I have someone to talk ball with each day. He keeps MiLB.tv on one of the screens in the weight room and for whatever reason, they’ve been playing Memphis 2025 games the last few weeks. So, I’ve had opportunity to watch, pitch-by-pitch, last year’s Memphis rotation. Weiss. Taylor. Bedell. Cornwall. Et. al. Oh, my! What a struggle they encountered. This article is written in that context.
Short Topic of the Day
The pitching, particularly of the starting variety.
Each spring, I work to get a look at the key pitchers in the organization as they ply their trade. My first hope is just that they are throwing free and easy. And participating in activities such as PFP. Health is such a key determinant. I don’t worry a lot about command or velocity unless it is way off norms. It’s too early to expect sharpness, and particularly on the MiLB side, pretty much all pitchers struggle with command. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be MiLB. Someone would remove the “i”.
In past years in camp, it could be hard to track down pitchers because it seemed so hit-and-miss without knowing who was going to throw, or where or when. Who I saw was pretty random. Be there all the time and hope was the strategy for getting good coverage. Plus, over the years, the Cardinals have progressively made it more difficult for fans to access and watch the areas pitchers work in. I intend to follow up on why, but I suspect there are multiple reasons behind this. Particularly early in the spring, there aren’t many fans to accommodate, and I did wonder if some of them were scouts for other teams. Why give them a free look?
This year brought some improvement as the press credentials improved my access but also allowed me insight into who, what and where of scheduling, so I could target and time my visits to different camp locations. They run a tight ship, so you could pretty well count on if someone was scheduled to pitch at 12:12p, they were going to pitch right around 12:12p. Much better than random visits and hoping to get a look. Information is key!
For the most part, the news was good in that it was mostly lacking in negative surprises. Pitchers on the recovery trail were as expected. Dobbins appears to be farthest along. Hjerpe and Roby have a way to go, timewise. Hjerpe is throwing. A good sign. I don’t expect Roby to pitch competitively this year. AFL, maybe. Dutkanych IV was a surprise in the rehab group. Henderson showing up with a sore forearm was disappointing. I’ve tended to suspect forearm strains can be pre-cursors to UCL injuries, but we will see. Let’s hope not for his sake. Most everyone else was good to go.
What I really noticed was the overall quality of the pitching organizationally. To me, pitching depth has been a concern as far back as 2020, maybe even longer. Even the playoff seasons of 2021 and 2022 required infusions of pitching at the deadline and my recollection is that need was obvious at the outset of those seasons.
As I watched the games and/or walked through the MLB bullpen area and watched, I could see seven or even more guys who can legitimately compete for a rotation spot at the MLB level right now. Not just “guys” or “arms” to fill a spot but actually guys we as fans would actually like to see throw. May, Liberatore, McGreevy, Pallante, Fitts, Leahy and I will include Dobbins. Although he may not be ready day 1, he is far enough along where you can see the stuff. The knee is his limitation right now, not the arm.
Then as I walk the backfields, I can see a AAA rotation that incorporates last year’s stellar AA rotation plus Mathews, who looked sharper. This should be a vast improvement over last year’s AAA rotation. These are the backstop guys, the depth for the MLB rotation. But with quite a bit more upside than was present in prior years. While none are guaranteed success, it has the feel of a group that will have an answer when the MLB rotation inevitably needs a boost as the season progresses.
Then, that AA rotation? Wow. Just wow! Cinjtje. Lin. Doyle. Likely with Rincon and Saladin filling it out, but there are some other guys that might have something to say about that. There is some serious juice here. I’m not projecting success or failure for any individual pitcher here either, but I don’t think it takes much squinting to see some potential quality.
Down below? Guys like Franklin, Sequera and Fajardo (and some others) begin to reveal just how deep this system is, across all timelines. Side note: Don’t sleep on Sequera. He might be my pick to break-out this year. To say nothing of the rehabbing pitchers that have their own pedigree – Holiday, Graham, Dutkanych IV, Findlay. That is seven guys High-A or below that are worthy prospects, not just organizational filler. There are others, too. I just haven’t seen them yet.
My personal measuring stick of how far this system has come? I watched Tink Hence work off a major league mound in a game (a great thing all by itself) and realized that this kid, with his stuff, is part of a much larger group and no longer “the one” that MUST succeed. I’m a big fan of his, in case you can’t tell. I hope we see him in StL this season.
I got a look at the Spring Breakout Roster. It has 20 prospect pitchers. I could see 16-18 of those guys pitching in the MLB. Some years, I have trouble seeing half that many making it that far. This is a deep group, covering a range of potential upside. Not just a bunch of back-end starters.
Oli asked (rhetorically, it turned out) “What is the strength of this team?”. He answered his own question with “Pitching”. I couldn’t disagree. If you are rebuilding a house, getting a strong foundation seems like a really good place to start. I’m no pitching guru, but I walked away impressed. Seriously. And I’m not easy to impress.
Since someone is bound to ask, I’ll get to the one prospect that gave me some pause. Liam Doyle. I’m still trying to gather my thoughts on this one. It seems apparent that there are some development needs there. I need to see more.
I have trouble separating my own limited observations from what/how I see the Cardinals handling him. To me, their actions say a lot. Eighty some guys in the organization got MLB numbers, he did not. You will notice that of the many pitchers that have gotten on the MLB mound in Spring Training games, he is not one of them. I don’t believe he has had an MLB bullpen, either. None of this screams fast track. All of it seems to reflect decisions made before camp, so it’s not like he showed up out of shape or anything like that. As I look at his peers, that puts him behind a number of them. Enough that him being in the rotation at the start of 2027 (much less being ROY) seems … optimistic. At least until we see more.
Probably the greatest intrigue that remains (at the time of writing this) is whether the Cardinals go with some form of six-man rotation. It’s not clear they’ve decided, but so far I’d say health and Fitts’ performance has begun swinging the decision. The way it maps out, his schedule aligns with split-squad days on the 9th, 14th and 19th (Prospect Day, if they want to have someone pitch on a backfield that day), so they could carry him on the MLB roster right up to the end of camp and get him starts. The big club won’t really need said 6th starter until April 15. As things play out right now (no guarantee), that day would be a May start and that is where they may want to insert a sixth starter (Fitts). My guess is he makes a start on March 19, stays in Jupiter and throws a back-field game around the 25th, then opens for Memphis around March 1, which looks like it would put him on schedule to start April 15, either with StL or Memphis (assuming a 6-man rotation in Memphis). Weather, health and/or performance could all conspire to foil that plan.
It’s hard to discern if they will really go with a full-on six-man rotation. It seems more likely that they roll with a modified six-man rotation, like last year. In this case, it wouldn’t shock me if Fitts joins the rotation, but ultimately Leahy is the guy that rotates back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, both as a way to manage his innings and a belief that he is probably best equipped to do this.
One thing is for certain, we will see. In this area, it is a land of opportunity and should be fun to watch unfold.
