The age of the Cardinals position player core could be the team’s secret weapon in 2026. While the roster is young, this isn’t a team built around 20- and 21-year-olds that are expected to contribute immediately. The projected starters on the position player side of things are all either in their prime or about to enter it. JJ Wetherholt is the youngest projected starting position player entering his age 23 season. On the other end of the spectrum, Lars Nootbaar, once healthy, will be the grizzled veteran of the bunch at 28 years old. This tight cluster of ages on the position player side prompted me to ask a couple of questions:
1. How much more likely are we to see a career year from one of these players because of where they are on the aging curve?
2. How does the age distribution of the team’s position players compare to rivals in the NL Central?
One of the criticisms of the Cardinals over the last three seasons has been their overreliance on aging veterans and young players not ready to contribute at the big league level, with very few players in their mid-twenties. We are all familiar with the idea that players improve in their early 20s and decline after 30, as a general rule. As you would expect, players are far more likely to put up a career year in their mid-to-late 20s than any other time. I looked at data, courtesy of FanGraphs, from 1900 to 2025 to see at what age players are most likely to put up a career high in WAR.
Data notes: This is limited to players that have at least one season of 2+ WAR. Any season with 300+ plate appearances was included for players that have completed their age 34 season as of 2025.
This chart simply shows in aggregate at which age players have posted their career high in WAR. You can see a fairly normal distribution peaking around age 27. Overall, 81% of career years occur between the ages of 24 and 31.
Another way to slice the data is to see what a player’s chances are in any given season of posting a career year.
Paul Goldschmidt defied the odds and put up an MVP year in his age 34 season in 2022. This is the exception that proves the rule and the next two seasons were a case study on why relying on older players can backfire. Goldschmidt’s decline also coincided with Jordan Walker debuting at 21, leaving the Cardinals relying on players either too early in their careers or too late in them.
How the NL Central Stacks Up
So, how do the Cardinals compare to their Central Division rivals? To estimate this, I looked at the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections for the 2026 season. This projection allocates a full season of plate appearances (6,240 per team) based on current depth charts for each team. Looking at the projected plate appearances and the age of the players, we can get a sense of the general shape of the rosters.
This table outlines the percent of each team’s plate appearances that are expected from each age group. The Cardinals are projected to get 9% of the team plate appearances from 18- to 23-year-olds, all of which belong to JJ Wetherholt. 86% of the team’s plate appearances are projected to be taken by 24 to 31-year-olds led by Masyn Winn (24), Alec Burleson (27), and Ivan Herrera (26). The 5% in the 32+ category all belong to Ramon Urias. The Cardinals leading the division in projected plate appearances from players in their prime provides a glimmer of hope that this roster could produce a few career years.
The 24-31 age bracket is probably the best way to identify players in their prime for the upcoming season, but there is obviously a huge difference between the 24- and 31-year-olds for a team’s long-term prospects. Breaking things down in a bit more granularity paints an even more descriptive picture.
A couple of things that jump out to me when looking at this breakdown:
- The Pirates’ Konnor Griffin is the only player in the division 21 or younger projected to get an at-bat this year. Pittsburgh has a surprisingly old position player group outside of Griffin.
- Milwaukee’s projected 69% of team plate appearances from the 26-29 demographic is tops not only in the division, but also in all of baseball. Small market teams will have to dominate this bracket of players because teams like the Brewers are unlikely to get much production from star free agents that are still producing into their 30s.
- Chicago has a great roster, but they are going to get old fast with Dansby Swanson (32), Alex Bregman (32), Ian Happ (31), Seiya Suzuki (31), and Carson Kelly providing roughly half the team’s plate appearances and projected value. This is certainly not a problem in the short-term as teams like the Dodgers and Phillies have even older rosters, but if they don’t increase their payroll, they may be gliding into a rebuild over the coming seasons.
A roster full of players in their prime doesn’t guarantee success, the players still have to perform, but it does provide some upside that might not be obvious when scanning the roster. The Central Division will remain open for the taking over the next decade unless the Cubs start spending like a top-tier team. The Cardinals may not have the star power of some National League contenders, but their roster construction places them squarely in the part of the aging curve where players are most likely to produce their best seasons. With 86% of their projected plate appearances coming from players between 24 and 31, St. Louis has more hitters in their statistical prime than any other team in the division. If even a couple of those players reach their peak in the same season, the Cardinals’ offense could look much better than many projections currently expect.
