I saw a little bit of surprise that Leonardo Bernal, voted as the sixth best prospect in the system, wasn’t voted in the top 5. I am not surprised. Doing this for three years, catchers usually end up lower than I expect, not higher. Bernal was ranked 8th last season and that definitely surprised me (I had him 5th). I can’t think of an instance where a catcher outkicked their coverage in the way that, say, Victor Scott did when he was voted 2nd. It just doesn’t happen. Catchers are not trusted by this voting bloc. And yes, I know Rainiel Rodriguez was voted 3rd, however I’m talking relative to expectations and 3rd in the system is pretty much in line with what national publications think. And I think a good many of us don’t think he will actually be a catcher. That leaves the current list at:
- JJ Wetherholt
- Liam Doyle
- Rainiel Rodriguez
- Quinn Mathews
- Joshua Baez
- Leonardo Bernal
Comparable Player Corner
Once again, here is a very immediately relevant comparable player poll. I won’t say that the winner will be on the next vote, but that whomever wins will determine who gets added next. That’s because one of these players has already been in this feature a couple times. Once the voting has established what you, the readers, think of a player, I can learn more information about the complete unknown player I am comparing him to.
Yhoiker Fajardo is the complete unknown. I didn’t really know when to add him and I’d like a little more information first. Acquired from the Boston Red Sox in the package for Willson Contreras, Fajardo will be 19 heading into the 2026 season. He pitched part of the season in the complex league and part of the season in Low A and he did well at both, striking out over 27% of hitters, walking 9% and getting groundballs over 50% of the time at both levels. Presumably he will be in High A.
Tanner Franklin was last year’s 72nd overall pick out of Tennessee. On a stacked Tennessee team, he was relegated to the bullpen, striking out 32% of hitters and walking just 5.5%. With an MLB ready fastball, the Cardinals will attempt to transition him to starting. He pitched at both Low A and High A last season, although only 6 innings in 3 appearances. He will be 22 next season and I’m guessing also at High A.
This will be the last time Franklin is in this section. I just really liked this comparison. Both should be at the same level and probably for just about the entire season, due to Fajardo’s age and Franklin needing to establish a starter’s workload. Franklin has better stuff and a better floor, but threw 30 less innings than Fajardo and is three years older. They are similar in terms of future value, but represent different types of prospects philosophically.
New Add
I thought it was about time to add Yairo Padilla, the teenage prospect who got very overshadowed by Rainiel Rodriguez. Who could have known Rodriguez would explode in his stateside debut? Anyway, last year Yairo Padilla finished 15th, which is both why I’m adding him now and also why he’s being added this late.
This might be a good time to ask about a few players I have no intention of ever adding to the vote who did make last year’s top 20 since Padilla is one of the last players. Last year’s #13 player, Sem Robberse, got DFA’d and is going to miss most of the 2026 season. Last year’s #14 player, Matt Koperniak, is now 28, got DFA’d and is coming off a poor season. #17 prospect Zack Showalter did not build off his 2024, suffered a few more injury problems, and could not throw strikes when he did pitch. #20 (or #21, the voting results have been lost) prospect Max Rajcic was bad in AAA and barely made the list.
Those seem straightforward. I also kind of think #16 prospect Darlin Saladin doesn’t need to go in the voting either. He’s more borderline than the above, but I feel like he was only on the top 20 because his stats made it impossible to not include him, and then he pitched worse at a level it seemed like he already conquered. The scouting on his pitches was never that great, so I’m not sure what the hook would be to get him on a top 20 now. Let me know if I’m right about these players. I’m asking so that I don’t have to include them on this section either for the record.
Jesus Baez, IF – 21
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+
Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding
I think Baez is bound to get overlooked in this ranking, because it does not seem like recent trade acquisitions do not do particularly well in the voting – fans haven’t had a chance to attach themselves to them yet. On top of that, Baez did not play particularly well as a Cardinal, although he did finish strong. But Baez can’t legally drink for a few more weeks, had a fairly successful season at High A and if he doesn’t start the year in AA, he’ll be there soon. The scouting doesn’t love his approach, although it’s not really seen in his stats yet, but the Cardinals’ success with Alec Burleson does give me some hope with Baez.
Brandon Clarke, 23 – LHP
Stats (Low A): 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 47.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 68.8 GB%, .125 BABIP, 0.93 ERA/0.98 FIP/1.32 xFIP/3.66 DRA
High A: 11 GS, 28.1 IP, 31.2 K%, 18.1 BB%, 62.5 GB%, .254 BABIP, 5.08 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.74 xFIP/4.75 DRA
Scouting: 60/60 Fastball, 70/80 Slider, 40/50 Change, 30/40 Command
I could say the same thing for Clarke. The Cardinals just got Clarke, so fans do not yet have an attachment to him. One could argue that leads to a more objective view of a player, but one could also argue their attachment to other prospects causes them to overrate them and thus put them above the “objective” prospect. In either case, Clarke had sort of a Tink Hence season, where he didn’t remotely convince you he’s more likely to avoid his downside, but he still pitched good enough to believe in the possibility of his upside. That’s a hard player to rank honestly.
Jimmy Crooks, C – 24
Stats (AAA): 98 G, 430 PAs, .274/.337/.441, 8.4 BB%, 26.5 K%, .167 ISO, .352 BABIP, 105 wRC+, 106 DRC+
MLB: 15 G, 46 PAs, .133/.152/.244, 0 BB%, 37 K%, .111 ISO, .185 BABIP, 5 wRC+, 67 DRC+
Scouting: 35/40 Hit, 40/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 20/20 Speed, 60/70 Fielding
I don’t know where I stand on Crooks. I reflexively defend players who seem to drop when I’m not really sure why. Or I don’t like the reasons. Interestingly, I think I disagree with the scouting on Crooks by Fangraphs, although it might lead to the same place. I am a little skeptical of their defensive scouting, but at the same time, they might be lower on his offense than I’d predict too. I wouldn’t be surprised if he could manage a 90 wRC+ or so, and I think a 40 hit tool with below average power describes a worse hitter than that.
Tink Hence, 23 – RHP
Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.18 xFIP, 4.56 DRA
Scouting: 45/45 Fast, 50/55 Slider, 60/70 Change, 45/55 Command
One thing about Hence that might not quite come across if you just look at last season is that I think he’s absolutely ready for AAA. If you look at his 2024 season, I don’t see how you wouldn’t come to that conclusion. He didn’t pitch in AAA last year for health reasons and that’s it. He never quite got past the rehab status. He spent most of his season working his way up to AA, struck out 8 to 1 BB in 4.1 IP where he didn’t allow a hit. He then got rocked in his next start and made just one more start after that where he was removed after just 11 batters. I imagine they wanted him to throw 5 innings before they promoted him and it never happened. Of course, Hence isn’t on the list yet because of health, so that isn’t exactly comforting.
Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA
Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command
As more of a stat follower than someone who scouts players or even looks at scouting reports of players, I am rather surprised how Fangraphs rates his pitches. If forced to guess, I would have predicted his secondaries were good, but his fastball was below average. It’s almost the opposite. I don’t know if this is accurate of course. But he’s a fastball/slider pitcher who needs a third pitch – according to this person’s opinion of course. Certainly, these scouting numbers for his pitches suggest an easy transition to the bullpen at the least.
Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP
Didn’t pitch
Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command
It is easy enough to see why Hjerpe is still making top 20 lists despite having the durability of Mark Prior. And this is only kind of a joke – the mechanics of a Carter Capps. He has the stuff to start. Look at that scouting. Two above average pitches, including a strong putaway pitch, and two other average pitches (or we hope in the case of the cutter). That’ll play. We just need Cooper Hjerpe to actually play.
Brycen Mautz, 24 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP/4.54 DRA
Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 40/45 Curve, 35/40 Change, 45/55 Command
2026 will prove to be an important year for Mautz. I feel like we’ve seen a few of the underwhelming scouting starters who nonetheless manage to pitch well reach AAA and just hit a roadblock. I will say that usually that type of pitcher doesn’t strike out 28.6% of batters in AA however. That gives me more hope that he either has better stuff than what the scouting says or that he’s better at utilizing and knowing his stuff than pitchers in the past. Either way, it’s hard to argue with his results.
Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+
High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+
Speaking of players with underwhelming scouting whose stats force you to pay attention to them, welcome to the poster child. I don’t actually have scouting on Ortiz, that’s how under the radar he was last year. He was a 16th round pick back in 2024, so it’s hard to blame the scouts. The Cardinals would have drafted him higher if they knew this 2025 was in him. They probably saw something in him that other teams didn’t certainly, but it’d be wild to wait 16 rounds – which is well past the point where you expect anything from your draft picks – and you just gambled correctly that nobody would pick him.
Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS
Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+
I honestly did not know how long I could or should wait to put Padilla into the voting. The main reason was that I didn’t know how much success at a rookie league improved a player’s stock in these type of rankings. And that goes for me and where I’ll rank him personally. Padilla was not in my top 20 because I don’t trust the DSL. He will be in my top 20 this year. Where, I have no idea at the moment. Because he certainly took a big step in showing he could succeed in the states – Jonathan Mejia very much failed this test for example. I will be curious if the Cardinals put him in Low A to begin the 2026 season. It will tell us a lot.
Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP
Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA
AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA
Roby had Tommy John surgery in July of 2025, so his ability to pitch next year is a little more in question than Hjerpe. But he pitched well last year, re-establishing himself as a prospect. Without the injury, I wonder how high he would be selected. I also feel that Roby was an example of a prospect that didn’t get as much love because he was a deadline acquisition so there was less attachment. However, fans have gotten familiar with him for now two and half seasons, so he’s probably not harmed by this effect anymore.
