Our first real battle happened in the vote for the #4 prospect, with Quinn Mathews winning by a mere 4%. Last year’s #2 prospect, he had a bit of a down year, or at least a year that didn’t go as well as hoped, but his drop to 4 actually had less to do with that and more to do with another top 10 pick and a huge year from a teenager. I think it’s safe to say even an excellent year and he lands as the #4 prospect, because he just doesn’t really have the upside of the first three guys. This leaves the current top 4 at:
- JJ Wetherholt
- Liam Doyle
- Rainiel Rodriguez
- Quinn Mathews
Comparable Player Corner
Okay, most of the time I run this feature, I am planning way ahead. I usually do not know when I will add the players in this section, I just know I will have a hard decision to make in the future and this vote will help me make that decision. Well, today we have a vote between two players, the winner of which is going into the next vote. Never has a decision more clearly indicated your philosophy towards prospects. And we have the two perfect representatives.
On one corner, we have Tanner Franklin representing the high upside, higher variance prospect. With an elite fastball, he still has to make that transition to starter, and has 6 total innings to his name.
On the other corner, we have Brycen Mautz representing the lower variance, close-to-the majors prospect. In Springfield, he he had a great season, he does also have relief risk because his change is a work-in-progress.
ORSTLcardsfan had a great idea to just say vote here instead of trying to paste the address bar. So click on vote here to vote.
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Last time, I mentioned that I was going to add one player based on his ranking on last year’s list and one player who either wasn’t in the system last year or is in such a wildly different place from last year that the voters haven’t had a chance to express how they feel about that prospect. Basically, one player where previous voting helps me out and one player where I have no clues as to when they might be put on the list.
Last year’s player is Cooper Hjerpe, selected 9th last year. If he was coming off a healthy season, he’d already be in the voting, but I felt it fairly safe to wait until now because of the Tommy John. And the player where I really don’t know where he’ll place is Ixan Henderson. He was in the system last year, but he was an 8th rounder with a good debut season in Low A and six starts in High A where he didn’t really strike people out. And then the Cardinals decided he only needed six starts in High A, and he had the kind of season in AA to land you on a top 20.
Joshua Baez, OF – 23
Stats (High A): 168 PAs, .317/.404/.483, 10.7 BB%, 21.4 K%, .166 ISO, .400 BABIP, 152 wRC+, 108 DRC+
AA: 331 PAs, .271/.374/.509, 12.4 BB%, 20.2 K%, .238 ISO, .294 BABIP, 141 wRC+, 125 DRC+
Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 45/60 Game Power, 60/70 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 40/50 Fielding
I know people say that Baez’s change has been more like a year and half than a year, but I kind of object to that, because the main reason people are suddenly giving him attention is the strikeouts, or the sudden drop in them. While he destroyed Low A, he had an improved strikeout rate, but not that out of line with expectations given he was sent down to a level he had already played. A 27.9 K% rate does not get my attention in that context.
His 21% and then 20% K rates last season, however, very much do. Imagine if Nolan Gorman suddenly strike out 20% of the time? It won’t happen. So I will be absolutely fascinated to know what Baez’s strikeout rate looks like next season. He may very well strike out a lot at the MLB level. But he’s at least starting from a lower place; a 35% K rate might be over 40% in the majors. I think that might be off the table, especially if his K rate remains reasonable.
Leonardo Bernal, C – 22
Stats (AA): 107 G, 455 PAs, .247/.332/.394, 10.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, .146 ISO, .274 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 113 DRC+
Scouting (FG): 35/50 Hit, 35/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 40/30 Speed, 40/55 Fielding
Two things I wonder: will Bernal start in Springfield if Crooks is sent to Memphis? And would Bernal start in Springfield if there wasn’t another strong catching prospect in front of him? We will get an answer to that first question and we may get an answer to the latter. If he’s sent to Memphis anyway, well obviously he would. And if Crooks makes the MLB team, we will also get an answer. But if Crooks is sent to Memphis and Bernal to Springfield, that part will remain unknown.
It does seem like he’s ready for the next step, but I can see an argument to repeating AA given his slow finish to last season. It’s an easier argument to make if Crooks is in Memphis too. And while he would get a lot of playing time in Memphis, things are just easier if Crooks is at one level and Bernal at another with regards to playing time.
Brandon Clarke, 23 – LHP
Stats (Low A): 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 47.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 68.8 GB%, .125 BABIP, 0.93 ERA/0.98 FIP/1.32 xFIP/3.66 DRA
High A: 11 GS, 28.1 IP, 31.2 K%, 18.1 BB%, 62.5 GB%, .254 BABIP, 5.08 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.74 xFIP/4.75 DRA
Scouting: 60/60 Fastball, 70/80 Slider, 40/50 Change, 30/40 Command
I will be interested to see where Clarke lands, because there are a few things that make his ranking more of an unknown than normal. Obviously, there’s the fact that it’s the first time he’s been in the voting. He is also very much a fringe top 100 prospect and the Cardinals have a few of those guys. And also, in the past, people have tended to be less connected to recent trade acquisitions than people they’ve followed for a few years. It doesn’t affect everyone, but certainly some players. So his ranking could go just about anywhere.
Jimmy Crooks, C – 24
Stats (AAA): 98 G, 430 PAs, .274/.337/.441, 8.4 BB%, 26.5 K%, .167 ISO, .352 BABIP, 105 wRC+, 106 DRC+
MLB: 15 G, 46 PAs, .133/.152/.244, 0 BB%, 37 K%, .111 ISO, .185 BABIP, 5 wRC+, 67 DRC+
Scouting: 35/40 Hit, 40/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 20/20 Speed, 60/70 Fielding
Crooks may end up ranking similar to last year’s voting, but I feel less love for him than last year for sure and I’m kind of curious if it’s more related to what he did in AAA or the majors. If he had never played in the majors, but hit the exact same in AAA, would there be a bigger push for him? His MLB performance clearly did not help, but was also 46 plate appearances at the end of a long season.
Tink Hence, 23 – RHP
Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.18 xFIP, 4.56 DRA
Scouting: 45/45 Fast, 50/55 Slider, 60/70 Change, 45/55 Command
I just noticed that Fangraphs gives Tink Hence a 45 fastball, which unless my memory has mistaken me, is a new development? I don’t remember his fastball being listed as his weakness essentially. Since he barely pitched last year, I wonder if this is accurate or an overreaction to a small sample of pitches trying to fight through injury. You can still make it work because his secondaries do, it would just be tougher.
Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA
Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command
Henderson’s stat line just kind of reminds me of a classic Cardinals pitcher of the past. The advanced stats end up closer to mediocre, but the ERA ends up in a good place. Sort of looks like a Michael Wacha line of recent years honestly. The question is if it reflects a pitchability that will keep him crafty enough to succeed or was the ERA more fluky?
Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP
Didn’t pitch
Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command
The good news is that Hjerpe should be ready to pitch fairly early in the season since he had his Tommy John surgery pretty early last season. Recovery is 12-16 months, so he seems to be in the window to pitch some innings this year. The bad news is that his career high in innings right now is 52 innings, so it does kind of feel like there’s a real ceiling in how many innings he will actually pitch this upcoming season.
Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+
High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+
Drafted in the 16th round of the 2024 draft, Ortiz did not play the rest of that year. So at this time last year, none of us knew who Ortiz was. There was no reason to pay attention to him. Now there is. Fangraphs does not have a scouting report on Ortiz, so I don’t actually have any scouting information to give you. But really, if he’s voted onto this list, it wouldn’t be for the scouting anyway.
The crazy thing about Ortiz is that he had that season at 20-years-old. It’s unusual for a late rounder to have the kind of season Ortiz had, but when it happens, it tends to be an older prospect, like Matt Carpenter in the 13th round. So the usual downside of hoping it’s not just an old guy beating on guys a few years younger is not present here. Ortiz is the young guy.
Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP
Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA
AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA
Roby had Tommy John surgery in July of 2025, so his ability to pitch next year is a little more question than Hjerpe. But he pitched well last year, re-establishing himself as a prospect. Without the injury, I wonder how high he would be selected. I also feel that Roby was an example of a prospect that didn’t get as much love because he was a deadline acquisition so there was less attachment. However, fans have gotten familiar with him for now two and half seasons, so he’s probably not harmed by this effect anymore.
