On Tuesday, January 6th, the St. Louis Cardinals acquired left-handed relief pitcher Justin Bruihl from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for cash considerations. After making stops in Los Angeles and Toronto last season (pictured), the Cleveland Guardians traded for the lefty reliever from Toronto after they designated him for assignment after signing submarine reliever Tyler Rogers.
The counting stats aren’t impressive; let’s not beat around the bush on that fact. Also, it was a small sample size, and I see some interesting traits that I think could foreshadow some additional performance.
In 15 appearances last season, Bruihl posted a 5.27 ERA, and while that number is unimpressive, when you look a little further under the hood, you see that his xERA was only 3.66, his FIP was 4.16, and his xFIP was 3.39. Those are a lot more respectable, and knowing that relievers are prone to volatility and one bad appearance can really alter the perception of said relievers. The small sample size can explain away the 5.27 ERA of it all. The 18 K’s in 13.2 IP is certainly more interesting in my opinion.
When we take a peak at Bruihl’s savant page the first things that stand out to you is that his fastball velo is low at 90.2 MPH but we know that velocity doesnt always equal results and when you look at his ability to generate almost 7 ft of extension it makes the perceived velocity play up so his 90-91 really looks 92-93 to hitters. The new Cardinals lefty can also limit hard contact and tends to generate at on of ground balls thanks to his arsenal.
Bruihl features a 3 pitch mix, and the movement profile stands out! A bigger tail and drop on the sinker will lead to missing barrels and balls on the ground to infielders more often than not. When you look at Bruihl’s Sweeper, the bigger break gives him a weapon that can help generate swing and miss, and more swing and miss potential in his profile. Finally, the Cutter is what we call a “bridge” pitch that can help his two better offerings work off each other. If the Cardinals can improve the shape of this bridge pitch theres optimism that Bruihl could actually be a quality reliever who you would feel comfortable in medium leverage situations.
The spin traits were one other aspect I wanted to highlight. While Bruihl isn’t exactly a “spin demon,” those numbers are still usable, and the average LA on his sinker being -4 is a really healthy number if you’re hunting for groundballs for you above average infield defense to gobble up.
I also wanted to highlight an adjustment Bruihl made last season that could explain why his stuff has taken another step forward. He dropped his arm slot by almost 10 degrees last season, which can generate tougher angles for hitters, and when you click on certain pitches on his Savant page, you can see the deception and the break, and they’re both very pleasing to the eye.
The last two points I will highlight for Bruihl: one, his stuff+ all three pitches graded out as above average offerings, and that should be one area for optimism. Two, Bruihl had a .459 BABIP, yes, typically ground ball, pitch to contact, pitchers tend to have a higher BABIP, but that number is unsustainably high. Yes, I’m saying he was the recipient of bad luck. Along with his sweeper, which can generate swing and miss, over a full season, that number should normalize with real opportunities.
When we look at Justin Bruihl, there are some parallels to John King, and I do see some of those similarities. I also see a better breaking pitch than King ever displayed, which gives me more optimism that Bruihl could be better than King. For the MLB minimum and 2 years remaining before arbitration, this is a low risk – mid reward propositon. Bruihl could pitch in medium leverage situations that could be valuable in 2026 for no cost. These are the type of marginal moves Bloom has been adamant that the Cardinals want to hit on to increase their ability to be competetive and I’m in favor of giving Bruihl the chance to see if he can get MLB traction.
(images pulled from MLB.com Baseball Savant and information graphs pulled from Fangraphs.com)
-Thanks for reading
