I thought I had a good idea for a post. And in truth, it is a good idea. I was going to look at the Cardinals roster at the moment and see how much money was committed beyond this year. Primarily by trying to estimate the arbitration prices. There was one small problem. Well two really, trying to estimate arbitration salaries even a year ahead of time is extremely difficult. But I was willing to try. The real problem is, between the guaranteed contracts and the players under arb over the next few seasons, that player might not be here.
I was looking at the players who would make more than league minimum, specifically in 2027 and 2028, and there are so few players on the roster who will make any money who are good bets to still be here. The list is basically Masyn Winn and maybe Ivan Herrera, but so long as his defensive home is uncertain, I don’t really think he’s a sure thing either.
Here’s who is under arbitration right now: JoJo Romero will be a free agent after 2026 even if he’s not traded, Jorge Alcala probably doesn’t make it to 2026, and John King might not make it to 2026 either. Lars Nootbaar might get traded at the next deadline, if not this offseason. Brendan Donovan seems likely to get traded at this point. Andre Pallante is supposed to make $3.4 million next year and might price himself into getting nontendered with another bad season. It feels like 2026 is Nolan Gorman’s chance, again if he’s not traded before that. Both Alec Burleson and Matthew Liberatore are okay bets, but Burly’s one-dimensional nature leaves him open to both trades and collapsing and Liberatore’s 2nd half was just alarming enough that I can’t really pencil him as a sure thing.
Six players enter arbitration in 2027, well maybe. Two relievers, Kyle Leahy and Riley O’Brien, may qualify for Super Two, they’re right on the fringe, I would in fact say O’Brien is pretty likely to not qualify (1.129 days). Either way, both are relievers, who both don’t get paid a ton anyway, and you can’t count on them. I’ve already mentioned Herrera and Winn. Pedro Pages will qualify for Super Two, but given how many catchers are competing with Pages over the next few years, you can’t on him being here. Jordan Walker also enters arbitration… maybe. Probably. He has to be in the majors at least half a season I think. Then you have Victor Scott enter arbitration in 2028. And that’s literally the list.
What is the point of making a future payroll guess when I’m looking at this? Sometimes the future payrolls can be a little misleading because arbitration prices can add up and sometimes the stars make some pretty good money. Pete Alonso, in his last year of arbitration, made $20 million. Masyn Winn might get there… in 2029. Whenever the Cardinals want to spend free agency money, they should have a ton of money to spend.
I honestly can’t remember a time when the Cardinals future roster looked so uncertain. The obvious answer is 2007, but 2007 had Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Molina and Wainwright weren’t Molina and Wainwright yet, but I don’t think anybody thought they would be traded anytime soon, so I was pretty sure they were going to be on the roster for a while. Chris Carpenter was also in year one of a five-year contract, so he wasn’t going anywhere either. Both Wainwright and Molina signed extensions starting in 2008 and Pujols was already signed through 2011.
So this is a bit unprecedented for me. By the way this is not me complaining about the future. This is not a reflection of the future outlook of this club. I’ll use Fangraphs, because it’s easy, but they have the #1 farm according to them, two top 20 prospects (Liam Doyle and JJ Wetherholt), three catching prospects in the top 100, and another two starting pitchers in the top 100. No, this is me commenting on the payroll uncertainty as in who can we depend on getting paid with the next three years. All the prospects I’ve mentioned? They ain’t making any money until 2029, and that’s only if they spend most of 2026 in the majors. Granted, rules could change in the next CBA, I don’t think they’ll change that drastically though.
I just can’t remember a payroll situation comparable personally. It was just a weird sensation when I set out to write that post and realized I couldn’t write that post.
Best Movie of each year… that I’ve seen
Okay, when I wrote the best movie in each year the Cardinals were in the World Series, I was not expecting people to stay so on target. I legit thought it would mostly be a comment section completely ignoring my post with a few exceptions and I was pleasantly surprised most of the comments got in on the fun.
Another thing that happened: I was slightly disappointed that some of the years the Cardinals made the World Series, I wasn’t that enthusiastic about my pick. Best case scenario is that I find a movie that is easily one of my all-time favorites, that I think is one of the all-time best movies, and I am super excited to share that. And any year that didn’t happen, it was sort of like “well I’m committed to this premise, but I don’t have an actual answer so I guess it’s this movie.” Which was every single 2000s answer, 1931, and kind of 1964.
So because my idea for today turned out to not be a very long post, I’ll give you movies I am actually excited to share are my best movies of that particular year… that I’ve seen. One from each decade of movies:
1925: Battleship Potemkin
1925 is not lacking in choices: The Big Parade, The Gold Rush, The Phantom of the Opera, the original Ben-Hur, but the best of them all is this Russian propaganda film. This will always hold a special place in my heart, because it was the first silent film I’ve watched where I was blown away. Where I realized a silent film can be as good as a sound film. I think I spent half this movie saying “wait you could film like this in 1925?”
1932: Trouble in Paradise
I do also love Freaks, but I think this is a gut instinct thing where Trouble in Paradise will hold up more on repeat viewings than Freaks. With Freaks, I was lucky enough to watch this with almost negative expectations, I don’t even remember the circumstances that caused me to watch it, but it wasn’t “oh I think this movie will be good.” Trouble in Paradise is maybe the first screwball comedy – first one I’ve seen. Screwball comedies are so hard to do well – there’s a reason they don’t really seem to exist anymore – and this movie makes it look so easy.
Since the Cardinals made the World Series four times in the 40s and because all four times I had movies I was excited to share, I’ll skip the 40s.
1951: Ace in the Hole
My other 50s picks are kind of obvious so why not do an underseen classic? The best way I can describe Ace in the Hole is that it’s basically Network before Network. They aren’t the same movie, they don’t take the same approach, but they have the same essentially message. As far as I can tell this one is mostly forgotten, Network still gets some play today. Ace in the Hole is a Billy Wilder movie, stars Kirk Douglas in really the only performance he’s given that I’ve actually enjoyed (I don’t think his acting style has aged all that well for the most part), and is on Pluto TV, a free service that you can watch right now. If I can get one of you guys to watch this movie, I’ll be a happy camper.
1969: A Boy Named Charlie Brown
Here’s a twist: I did not watch this as a kid. I mean I may have. I don’t remember watching it though. I watched it four years ago. And I was pretty shocked how much I loved this movie. Yeah if you only watched this as a kid and loved it, but haven’t revisited it, yeah it totally holds up.
1976: Harlan County USA
I watched this one earlier this year and this documentary rules. Barbara Kopple initially was just there to film a group’s attempt to change union leadership in a coal miner’s union. And then a 13-month long strike happened. So that became the focus of the documentary. And there’s a point in the movie where she is legit in danger, but keeps filming. This is honestly a must-watch.
1988: My Neighbor Totoro
Yes Die Hard came out in 1988 and yes I probably love it as much as you. This was a very difficult decision and I actually picked this year to force myself to choose. 1988 also features Grave of the Fireflies, which is much depressing to pick as my favorite movie. Fun fact: I watched that one right before a New Years Eve party. Not my best decision. There’s really no other way to describe this movie than adorable honestly. You may have no soul if you are not won over by this movie’s charms.
1996: Fargo
Yeah I’m going easy mode on this one. I love far too many movies in 1994 to pick one (Pulp Fiction, Hoop Dreams, Shawshank, and honestly I’d feel pretty comfortable with Get Shorty, Heavenly Creatures, and Speed being the best movie if they were made in a different year too). And I’m not suggesting 1996 doesn’t have other great movies, this just happens to be the lone movie this year that I am comfortable saying would rank very highly on my list, whereas other potential options might get lost in the cracks. 90s is up there for movies: I have hard choices in a good way in ‘95, ‘97, ‘98, ‘99 and of course 1994 too.
2001: Yu Tu Mama Tambien
So I made this great movies list, but I only started it five years ago, so most of the 2000s movies were watched well before I had this conception of how I wanted to feel after a great movie. Which is my way of explaining why this was the first 2000s movie that gave me that absolute certainty I want when making that list that so few movies give me. There’s some magical thing that seems to happen, and it doesn’t matter how great the movie is supposed to be, it doesn’t normally happen in my experience. I’ve watched plenty of great movies that do not give me that feeling, like sometimes I have to talk myself into it being great or it sits with me.
2015: Spotlight
This is a top 5 theater experience for me. I was in London, visiting my sister with my mom when my sister was studying abroad for a semester. My sister had class and for some reason, we decided to see a movie and somehow we landed on Spotlight. There were not that many people in the theater – over 10, but less than 20. And when the screen flashed all the cities where priests had abused kids at the end, the silence in that theater is something I will never forget. I just remember not being able to move. And it felt like collectively, we all had that experience because I do not remember hearing a word for at least a minute and it felt like five minutes. The credits started and still nobody moved quite yet.
2020: Palm Springs
I thought about picking something more recent, but I haven’t actually seen that many 2025 films yet. You’d kind of think this would be talked about more after Cristin Milioti got a lot of (well-deserved) attention for The Penguin. Like hey by the way, she was also great in this movie that seems to have already fallen under the radar.
