Well when all was said and done, the Cardinals had the perfect falling star team to surpass in September, the NY Mets. But unfortunately another red team, the Reds, stumbled into the playoffs backward. The two teams were fairly evenly matched, but the Cardinals won the season series 7-6 vs Cincinnati. However, the Reds finished 4 games above .500 while St Louis finished 6 games under, partially thanks to a Cubs drubbing in Chicago, where the Cardinals could have been .500 but were swept under the carpet where better draft picks lie.
What went right? What went right actually didn’t really go right. Masyn Winn was the Cardinals best player, but he was an elite defense first shortstop who was actually a below average hitter in his sophomore campaign. If position players only have two dimensions, Winn was one of many one dimensional players on the 2025 Cardinals roster. Not to mention, the Cardinals best player missed significant playing time to injury. So I’m not even sure if anything went right with the 2025 team.
Brendan Donovan though, that was a feel good story, right? Well it was for a while, but it was in the end a tale of two halves: during the first half of the season Donovan hit at 125 wRC+ with an OPS just under .800. In the second half, we was a league average hitter with an on-base % of .310. But perhaps the most striking feature of Brendan Donovan’s 2025 and maybe the most limiting were his splits. 75 wRC+ vs lefties. 140 wRC+ vs righties.
Which leads me to the good parts of the Cardinals offense, Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera. Of these players, Contreras is the most well rounded, playing superb defense at first base while hitting at the same clip as Burleson, who cannot field worth a damn. Herrera was the true star hitter of the 3, posting a 137 wRC+ on the season. What level of hitter does this make Ivan? Better than Devers, in the same league as MLB stars Matt Olson, Kyle Tucker, Byron Buxton, Cory Seager, Geraldo Perdomo, and on par with Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Max Muncy. So if you were looking for a feelgood story for 2025 it’s Ivan Herrera! Except with one caveat: he was only healthy enough to play in 107 games. So his main limitation was health, and having to occupy the DH spot for 89 games, where his wRC+ diminished from 242 as catcher to 127 as DH. Granted he only saw 14 games as catcher, but damn. Maybe there’s something to that.
Willson Contreras is maybe an even more shining example of a Cardinal player in 2025: exceled at new position, overcame a horrible start and time lost due to injury, and (almost) finished a second half of 138 wRC+. Without that flailing start to the season, we probably would have seen much more than a 124 wRC+ at the end of the season. He of course missed the very end of the season, but he still lead the team with 20 home runs. Even with some flaws to his season because of its beginning and various injuries, he still had the best overall season for a position player, when looking at the complete ballgame. His defense, hitting, and baserunning plus veteran presence and competitive nature made his a core player. But tragically they did not make the playoffs.
Alec Burleson would be a better player if he just played in the DH non-position. Because his defense is a liability. That said the Burly-man blossomed into a true MLB level hitter in 2025. It was by far Alec’s best year at the plate in his short career, but most importantly the gap in his splits of hitting righties vs lefties has shrunk to much more manageable levels. So what does this mean? Burleson really is an every day player. He has toned down his desire to swing at absolutely everything and is making higher quality contact than he used to. Burleson has matured into a good hitter. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging were all at career highs. Another bright spot limited by poor defense. Burly lead the team in home runs along with Contreras and Herrera (20 Contreras, 19 Herrera, 18 Burleson).
Ok so, I thought this post was about what went wrong? Well so far what went right was pretty limited! Even Contreras was held back from having a truly stellar season. Herrera lost too much playing time. Donovan had a much more brilliant first half and struggled vs lefties. Burleson got stuck playing defense too often.
The outfield was a glaring weakness, despite elite defense in center field, and Burly’s hitting. Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker combined for -.5 fWAR. Jordan Walker was -1.3 fWAR in 111 games. One can only draw the conclusion that Jordan Walker is not an MLB level player. At least not anymore. He wasn’t a bad hitter in his first season. Something has gone horribly wrong since then. Whether it’s the league figuring him out, disinterest in improving his plate discipline, or some other distraction is anyone’s guess. But a good team the Cardinals are not with him getting ample playing time in the outfield. Not along with Victor Scott II also not hitting, and Lars Nootbaar appearing to be closer to a league average hitter than we thought.
One possible savior for the Cardinals offense was Nolan Gorman. But in 2025, Gorman is looking like a bench player. His strikeout rate is too high, his offense and defense mediocre at best. Nolan Gorman wasn’t going to save anything and couldn’t even really save his future. He most certainly is on the chopping block of one sort or another. Gorman still has promising power numbers, about the same as Burleson’s this year. But of course, Alec Burleson hits the damn ball a lot more.
Clearing the way could be the key to success. Neither Nolan Gorman nor Nolan Arenado are going to be more impressive than say Thomas Saggese, JJ Wetherholt, or some other unnamed player at third base. Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II do not need to be set in the outfield, nor does Lars Nootbaar. A completely different outfield could be the answer. If you are feeling bad about our outfield though, don’t despair because at least we didn’t have the KC Royals outfield.
But what else what wrong? The starting rotation. Sonny Gray had a good fWAR total but a bad bWAR with an ERA of 4.28. Matthew Liberatore had a serviceable season as preferably what would be a back end of the rotation starter. And then a bunch of guys who had less fWAR than some of the bullpen arms. Miles Mikolas and Andre Pallante were essentially replacement level players. Erick Fedde was DFA’d by 3 teams this year and we pitched him in 20 starts. Michael McGreevy the Hope for the Future was not as good as Matthew Liberatore, so he could be what should be our #5 next year.
You know, that means we need 2 of 3 top of the rotation spots filled. Or 3 of 3 if Sonny Gray accepts a trade away from here. That is some DOOM spellin’ from the scrying glass of 2026’s starting pitching makeup. There has never been much more uncertainty in a starting rotation after this season.
So the starting rotation and outfield went terribly wrong. Sure Kyle Leahy might now be a rotation option, but I wouldn’t count on it. Or maybe we have to. He did after all put up 1.4 fWAR in 88 IP which could potentially make him a #3 or maybe even #2 rotation arm, if he can survive the makeover. He was never much rotation material in the minor leagues. But hopefully, Kyle Leahy can help us in the rotation change.
So a lot went wrong. There were some bright spots. But all in all, this was a wasted opportunity on several levels. The odd season long transition between the Mozeliak era and Bloom era was abnormal to put it lightly. This revealed just how bad the minor league technology and development plus training departments were behind the times. Will the Cardinals organization have failed players like Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker? Are they salvageable or should they just kindly be allowed to move on? I cannot even begin to know the answer to that but it feels safer to allow them to resurrect their careers somewhere else, and move on.
Or maybe they can just stay in AAA all year next year. Why not? I don’t know. But the roster feels like a conundrum. Too many players who are all hitting or all fielding, or just replacement level. Such a roster even with good defense and a good bullpen can only be around .500. Things are not working out.
The Cardinals weren’t that bad this year, the Rockies had the worst rotation, the Cardinals outfield had Victor Scott II’s defense. So not the worst outfield. The bullpen was so good it could withstand losing 3 of its best arms. Without injuries to some of our best hitters, we would have been at least .500. What could have been with less injuries, less adherence to players like Erick Fedde and Jordan Walker, and maybe a little more luck? I think the Reds would be sitting at home resting.
