Intro
Yet another west coast swing. I love ‘em. I will be there.
The 72-72 Cardinals make the long trek to Seattle to play in spacious T-Mobile Park. They remain at the edge of the abyss where elimination beckons but hope resists. 4.5 games out of a wild-card birth with 3 teams .5 games ahead of them. I predict nothing but note that stranger things have happened. The 75-68 Mariners are looking to right the ship and make the playoffs. They currently hold the third and final WC spot, a bit tenuously perhaps. Pythagoras is not their friend, not that he loves the Cardinals chances, though.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Monday – Mikolas vs Bryan Woo @ 8:40p (all times Central)
Tuesday – Liberatore vs George Kirby @ 8:40p
Wednesday – McGreevy vs Logan Gilbert @ 8:40p
Quick peek at the pitching/run prevention
Seattle by reputation has a strong pitching rotation – Castillo, Gilbert, Woo, Kirby and Bryce Miller. Yet their runs allowed is just a bit better than the Cardinals (635 to 662), so the facts belie the reputation a bit. Especially considering how favorable their home park is to pitchers.
On Friday, Bryan Woo takes the mound. A 25-years-old righthander, he carries a 3.02 ERA and 3.66 FIP. K-rate of 25.2%, with a 5.1 walk-rate that puts his K-BB rate north of 20%. With Gilbert around, it would be hard to say Woo is their best pitcher, but I’d rather have Woo, given a choice.
On Saturday, 27-year-old right-hander George Kirby is on the bump. 4.47 ERA is not so shiny (although inflated by a blow up start last time out in Tampa), supported by a more normal looking 3.56 FIP, and a matching 3.54 xFIP. Luck and defense must not be his friend. He runs a 23.6% K-rate and a 5.9% walk rate. Not bad.
On Sunday, 28-year-old Logan Gilbert toes the rubber. 3.78 ERA/3.24. He sports an outstanding 34.2% K-rate and decent 6.2% walk rate. He is a handful. The HR bug has gotten him a bit. His xFIP is 2.64. This a great pitcher having an OK year.
Seattle’s bullpen is bottom ten. They have a couple of big guns with K-rates > 30% in Munoz and Speier. Beyond that, pretty much replacement level pitchers.
So, when I do the research on team stats and such, I find myself wondering things like who is the worst at such-and-such. So far, I haven’t seen too many bests or worsts for my write-ups. Today, we come close. Seattle is 29th in defense at -25 OAA, even worse than the Giants. Seattle appears to have forgotten the importance of defense in a big, pitcher friendly park. Oddly, I view Seattle as similarly run to the Cardinals, who seem to have forgotten the same lesson. Go figure.
A peek at the offense
Cal Raleigh. ‘Nuf said there.
They have five good to great hitters. Raleigh and JRod are household names. Polanco is having a resurgent year. JP Crawford is better than average. And then there is the craw in the throat of Cardinal fans, Randy Arozarena and his 124 wRC+.
Pretty much everyone else is below average to replacement level.
Overall
T-Mobile Park suppresses offense quite a bit more than any other park in baseball at 91 (100 is average). Not many triples or HRs hit in this park. Of course, the Cardinals don’t hit many of those anywhere, so not much impact expected, especially with their top 4 hitters out.
Contreras should be back Tuesday.
Seattle really doesn’t appear to have a deep enough line-up or good enough defense to really leverage their strengths. I suspect they will limp into the playoffs.
A name to note for later. Luis Castillo. He has two years and $43m left on his contract, with a third-year vesting option. His days in Seattle are numbered. They will be looking to get out from under that contract. Remember those terms. They will be needing a third baseman next year, and an improved defense.
The private plane is down for annual maintenance, and they are waiting on a back-ordered part, so we are driving instead of flying to this series. No different than driving from St. Louis to Chicago, maybe a bit quicker.
