If they can just avoid their bullpen, this is a pretty winnable series…. if they can avoid the bullpen.
I would hope it’s accurate to say that I am writing the first official series preview where the Cardinals are out of the race. Or at least, the first series preview where the front office will assume the Cardinals are out of it. Oh sure, you could make the argument that the preview for the Rockies could have applied. But they could have always swept the Rockies. I think, if anything is going to kick you out of a race, it’s going to be losing a series to the Rockies.
As such, the stakes feel lower even though this is in theory an important series. The Cardinals have four games against a direct competitor, a team they could surpass at the end of the series. It’d need to be a clean sweep, but they could hypothetically pass the Padres in the standings. They’d still need favorable results from the Reds and Giants to be the 3rd wild card, but they’d probably make up ground and they’re only 2 games back of the Giants, who reside as the next man standing in the wild card race. At the very least, anything less than winning this series 3 games to 1 will not move the needle.
The Padres offense is pretty much the definition of stars and scrubs. Offensively, they are led by someone I want to call the ageless wonder, except Manny Machado is somehow still just 32-years-old. He has a 132 wRC+, which would be his best mark since 2022. Fernando Tatis Jr. is slightly underperforming, but that means a 127 wRC+. Jake Cronenworth has seen an offensive resurgence, with a 118 wRC+, his best mark since 2021.
The Padres have turned Gavin Sheets into an above average hitter, something that makes the White Sox look incompetent, though his defense still makes him a below average player. Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill all have slightly above average hitting lines.
And then, well they skip right past below average into truly bad hitters. Their catching duo can’t hit no matter which player plays. Martin Maldanado has a 54 wRC+ and Elias Diaz has a 67 wRC+. If the defensive numbers are to believed, they are not making up for it with their defense as both are below replacement. Jose Iglesias starts some games too and he has a 67 wRC+. Tyler Wade, ocassionally plays, and he’s not much better with a 72 wRC+. They truly have no bench to speak of.
Early trade deadline speculation: boy do the Padres fit as a trade partner. They badly need a second baseman and they badly need a catcher. What do you know, the two things the Cardinals have plenty of. No idea how good their farm system is though. Quick glance tells me they have only two prospects in Fangraphs top 100, and both are teenagers, and one of them is a catcher. Not really ideal. But they need what we got.
They are a below average defensive team. Bogaerts and Tatis lead the team defensively, as they have at least posted elite defensive numbers this season. For Tatis, it’s because he’s elite. Bogaerts, though given his past few seasons, that one seems fluky. The numbers are dragged down by Arraez, Sheets, and interestingly, Maldadano, who has been awful in every way.
Okay, so overall the offense hasn’t been impressive (98 wRC+ this season, 19th in baseball), and the defense hasn’t been impressive. You can probably guess that the pitching is good though. They have an elite bullpen, probably one of the easier bullpens to manage honestly.
Robert Suarez has 29 saves to 3 blown saves, and he something of a weird line because he’s been very lucky on homers, which is why he has 1.8 fWAR, but his ERA reflects his xFIP (3.46). He has an absolutely horrendous 63.6 LOB%. Get on base, you might score. Good luck getting on base.
Adrian Morejon and Jason Adam, along with Suarez, all made the All-Star team. Morejon deserved it with a 1.79 ERA and 1.7 fWAR. Adam less so. He has a great ERA at 2.01, but pretty mediocre underlying stats. Couldn’t give his spot to Maton or something? Three relievers in the All-Star game is absurd. Honestly, Jeremiah Estrada had a better case. That’s four really good relievers. The only real weak relievers are Kyle Hart, a lefty who was just called up from AAA, and Yuki Matsui, a lefty who has not lived up to his 5-year contract from the NPB. Both are of course lefties, which means the Cardinals are going to have trouble scoring against anyone they use.
Thursday – 6:45 PM
Yu Darvish (6.08 ERA/3.92 FIP/5.14 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (4.04 ERA/2.88 FIP/2.89 xFIP)
Darvish’s numbers look bad, but it’s only three starts. He has not looked particularly good in any of his three starts. It is worth pointing out that he is 38-years-old and still has three more years left on his $108 million contract. He was decent last year, so I’m not going to pretend there’s no chance he won’t have a good start tonight.
Gray is doing the same thing he did last year, and it’s just kind of weird. I don’t know why his advanced stats are so much better than his ERA, but it’s really annoying. Especially since his career stats suggest this is not the type of pitcher he is. His career ERA, FIP, and xFIP are very similar for his career, making this even more confusing.
Friday – 6:15 PM
Nick Pivetta (2.81 ERA/3.16 FIP/3.50 xFIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (5.20 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.65 xFIP)
What we have here is a bonafide mismatch. Pivetta has been quite good this year, in the first year of his four-year deal. Mikolas has been lucky that Erick Fedde has taken the heat off him and well, he’s certainly going to have to pitch better than he has or the heat will shift to him.
Saturday – 6:15 PM
Randy Vazquez (3.73 ERA/5.39 FIP/5.94 xFIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore (4.13 ERA/3.51 FIP/4.01 xFIP)
Holy cow guys, it’s Erick Fedde! You know before his profile completely collapsed. Vazquez has somehow made 20 starts, has an 11.6 K% and a 10.9 BB%. He doesn’t get groundballs either. He has an unbelievable 81.4 strand rate, when a pitcher with stats like his should be closer to 70%. Just as a matter of principle, I hope we destroy this guy.
Liberatore will be extremely well-rested and hopefully that shows up in his performance. I know they want him to finish out the year, because that’s the way he can be better prepared next year, so I hope he has a good start. I don’t necessarily care about the results of this series, but this is a game I really want to win.
Sunday – 1:15 PM
Stephen Kolek (4.28 ERA/4.08 FIP/4.20 xFIP) vs. Michael McGreevy (3.49 ERA/3.23 FIP/4.05 xFIP)
You know for as good as the pitching for the Padres is, I’m not really sure where this idea that they can sell Dylan Cease and still go for a playoff spot comes from. Their starters are not especially strong. They have a really, really good bullpen, but it’s Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta and then… hittable guys. Kolek has a below average strikeout rate and relies on groundballs.
Which makes this a pretty perfect matchup because he’s facing McGreevy. Although McGreevy hasn’t really gotten groundballs this season, his career rate is still 48% due to last year. McGreevy’s success is almost entirely tied to him not walking hitters, something I expect to continue.
All in all, clearly a series where the Cardinals can’t let the Padres get to their bullpen with a lead. They need to hit the starting pitchers. Weirdly, I come away from this preview thinking this is way more winnable than I had assumed, because their success is pretty tied to having a lead going into the 6th and 7th innings… and we aren’t facing Cease.
