Veteran VEB contributor Solanus dives deep into player-level Win Probability Added, revealing the quirks, clutch moments, and lineup alchemy driving St. Louis’s 2025 campaign—warts, wonders, and all.
Editor’s Note: Hi everyone — just popping in to thank longtime VEB denizen Solanus for putting together this deep dive! With Fanposts currently on pause (there’s a plan in motion — details soon!), we teamed up for a little Fanpost Friday. Yes, it’s Saturday. No, that’s not important.
What is important is the treasure trove of Win Probability Added insight waiting below. So settle in and enjoy this meticulous look at the quirks and clutch genes of your 2025 Cardinals offense.
Good morning
Quick introduction if you’re not familiar with me: My name is Chris Tremblay. I’ve been a regular on VEB for almost two decades, having found the site in April of 2006. I loved the discussions about stats & baseball & all the various nonsense that resided in the comments section. I was in awe of the prodigious output from the original editor, lboros – Larry Borowsky. I soon discovered Fangraphs and my statistical drug of choice, Win Probability Added. I’ve been obsessing over that particular metric ever since then and it is a huge focus of the data collection that I’m presenting today. Personally, I am on the wrong side of 50, and I have a twin brother – you might know him on here as Rejuvenile (named after a concept of adults embracing their childhoods again). My moniker was half of a D&D character name from grade school; that the name Solanus is associated with two people hoping to be canonized is pure coincidence.
I’m going to be talking about the offense today, both from a player perspective and that of the various lineup positions. There are two huge caveats to keep in mind. One, I do this whole thing manually, so it takes a lot of time to get everything up to date in terms of season totals; to limit the workload ahead of publishing this article, I decided to cut off data collection a week before the All-Star Break. Two, Baseball-Reference will occasionally update their WPA tables during the season; this is useful & relatively easy when pulling data off their site, but a PITA when I’m typing everything into a bloated spreadsheet as we go through the year, so the WPA values will be off from current (but probably within 2-3% of actual). I also track the games by position using the first spot they enter the game, so Burly playing rightfield, first base, & pitcher in a single contest goes under RF, and so forth. Accepting those limitations, here is what I see.
From the players’ perspective:
- Lars Nootbaar (-.436 bWPA) has the biggest gap of all the players between how he does in wins (+1.703) and losses (-2.139). When he excels (bWPA +.060 or better), St. Louis is 16-3, the best win% on the team (10+ starts). Of his 83 games played, 66 were in the leadoff spot (-.864), 17 were elsewhere in the lineup (+.428); the Cardinals have also fared much better in those other games (10-4 in his starts with three reserve appearances). SSS: in ten games in RF, he posted a -.284.
- Willson Contreras (+.616 bWPA) has nearly a .500 record in games played at 43-42. To no one’s surprise, he’s been much better against LH pitching (+.785) and has started versus every lefty we’ve faced. Given his opening batting slump, his numbers hitting 2nd (-.810) vs further down (+1.426) comes as no surprise. SSS: a -.347 in twelve games at DH, a position he hasn’t occupied since 5/27 ,thankfully.
- All-Star Brendan Donovan (-.316 bWPA) has surprisingly poor numbers for a high AVG/OBP machine, probably due to his .668 OPS in high-leverage situations (thanks to a .190 BABIP). He’s hitting too high in the order against southpaws (-.339 in 29 games) and has a huge split between 2B (+.602) and LF (-.655). SSS: three games hitting 5th, +.392.
- Nolan Arenado (+.559 bWPA) is the opposite of Donovan in that he has a better WPA than his slash stats would warrant. A little shocking that his vs LHP results (-.187) aren’t better, but that helps explain our 14-16 team record against them. When he has a bad game (bWPA -.060 or worse), the team played to an 11-15 record, the best on the team. SSS: hitting 6th (28 games, -.216) is doing him no favors.
- Alec Burleson (+.654 bWPA) has a losing record in games that he has played in, but that is primarily because he is utilized as a pinch-hitter in losses (3-8 as a reserve). With his poor handedness splits (.865 OPS v .578), you’d think that his WPA would track to that, but it doesn’t (+.196 in games started by lefties) because he succeeds once the bullpen enters the game (vs LH starter, his sOPS+ is 98; vs LHP, it’s 67) [NOTE: he has a gap of 106 points in BABIP between RHP & LHP]. He has started at six spots in the batting order (#5, -.204; #7, +.397). SSS: keep him out of LF – six games, -.388.
- Ivan Herrera (+2.356 bWPA) has the best overall WPA numbers and is the only one with a positive value in team losses (+.203). He destroys lefthanded pitching (+1.445) with both his 3-HR game (+.345) and his go-ahead HR against the Royals (+.766) on the ledger. Odd that he combines a +1.702 bWPA & a 6-9 mark hitting 5th. SSS: thirteen games at catcher, +1.082, 6-7 team record.
- Jordan Walker (-.723 bWPA) is the opposite of Burleson, with a 32-23 mark in games played, buoyed by a 6-1 record in contests he entered late. The Cardinals are 6-2 in games when he hits well (+1.456), with one of those losses coming in the 13-inning game that he extended with a PH single in the 12th. SSS: hitting 7th or 8th, +.013, 23-9 team mark; hitting 6th, -.751, 5-12.
- Victor Scott II (-.164 bWPA) has a team record of 46-33 in games he started, the best out of all the position players. It’s pretty clear he shouldn’t start often vs LHSP (-.244), but out of the 30 games the Cardinals have faced southpaws, he has a 12-9 mark as a starter, his stand-ins are at 2-7 (damn, we need a legitimate RHH CF-capable outfielder). I’ve heard complaints about his hitting overall, but he’s getting the job done compared to other 9th-place hitters (+.122). SSS: two games playing LF w/Siani in center, +.118.
- Michael Siani (-.015 bWPA) has a whopping five starts (1-4 mark, -.150) out of 19 appearances. SSS: seven games entering as a PH or PR, +.135.
- Pedro Pages (-1.086 bWPA) has the same record as Scott against LHSP (12-9 when starting), which means that Herrera & Pozo, two guys that demolish LHP, have a 2-7 mark when beginning the game at catcher versus lefties. When I claimed Noot had the best team success when posting +.060 or better, I limited it to ten or more starts; Pages was a perfect 9-0 in those situations, with his lone loss coming when Ivan got hurt the first time and Pedro nearly won us the game (+.359). SSS: 18 games hitting 7th, 12-5 record, -.088.
- Nolan Gorman (-.133 bWPA) had an even 31-31 team record with the smallest gap in WPA performance (+.378 in W, -.511 in L). Fairly even distribution by handedness (vLHSP – nine starts, -.008; vRHSP – 42 starts, -.125). Has hit in every spot in the order except leadoff, starts at 3rd through 8th (most at #7 with 26 assignments). SSS: his best WPA comes when he DH’s (+.200).
- Luken Baker (-.281 bWPA) struggled as a starter (2-6 mark, -.446). SSS: because he started every time there was a lefty, all of his reserve play came in games started by righties, giving him a split of -.446 vLHSP, +.173 vRHSP despite a sOPS+ of 149 vs LHP and zero hits in seven AB’s with the platoon disadvantage.
- Thomas Saggese (+.023 bWPA) has the worst record of any Cardinal with at least ten starts (7-13, .086), with an 8-16 mark overall. He seems miscast as an option against lefthanded pitching (2-9 starting record, -.304). SSS: six games at shortstop, 1-4 mark starting, but a +.415 WPA.
- Yohel Pozo (+.826 bWPA) has been a godsend as a reserve player, putting up a WPA of +1.051 when coming in late, by far the best on the team. He has eight games where he put up a +.060 or better (+1.552 total), five of them coming off the bench. SSS: best pinch-hitter, +.534 in nine games.
- Jose Barrero (-.349 bWPA) has a strong 15-7 team record, but eleven of those wins came as a reserve (4-4 mark, -.265 when starting). SSS: he had one memorable offensive performance, 5/5, +.193, where he had half of his four hits this year and all three of his RBI.
- Ryan Vilade (-.188 bWPA) managed a 2-1 mark despite no hits in his three starts (-.120). SSS: we didn’t win a single game he entered late (0-4, -.068).
- Garrett Hampson (-.111 bWPA) is yet another RHH reserve that can’t seem to be involved in wins (1-3 mark, -.125 in starts). SSS: maybe the key is to have him play RF & hit 8th – 1-0 record, -.035.
- Jose Fermin (+.165 bWPA) had little opportunity to accrue WPA, racking up +.008 in reserve appearances despite four hits in five AB’s. SSS: his starting results were the opposite, 2 for 7 with a walk, +.157.
By month:
- March/April (-2.028 team total) – Arenado +.646, Winn -.547, Donovan -.552, Burleson -.568, Walker -.587
- May (+2.010 team total) – Herrera +.822, Donovan +.729, Burleson +.727, Contreras +.674, Gorman -.509, Pages -.609
- June/July (+.247 team total) – Herrera +1.394, Pozo +1.135, Gorman +.617, Donovan -.493, Burleson -.495, Scott -.810, Winn -1.086
By starting pitcher:
- Gray (+2.430 team total) – Arenado +.685, Donovan +.497, Gorman -.566
- Fedde (-3.546 team total) – Burleson +.432, Nootbaar -.599, Contreras -.616, Winn -.688, Pages -.898
- Pallante (-.189 team total) – Herrera +.714, Contreras +.555, Arenado -.501, Donovan -.635
- Mikolas (-.144 team total) – Herrera +1.045, Winn -.667
- Liberatore (+.322 team total) – Arenado +.821, Winn -.642
- Matz / McGreevy (+1.356 team total) – Nootbaar +.438, Donovan -.280
By position:
- Catcher (+.333 team total) basically came down to Herrera & Pages cancelling each other out (+1.082, -1.086) and Pozo (+.337) delivering the final result.
- First Base (+1.417 team total) gets excellent work from Contreras (+.963) & Burleson (+.454).
- Second base (+.101 team total) has Donovan carrying the load (+.602) and Gorman & Saggese (-.175, -.326) pissing most of it away.
- Third base (+.606 team total) is mostly Arenado (+.559) with acceptable work by the rest.
- Shortstop (-.538 team total) gets bailed out by six games by Saggese (+.415) after Winn’s weak showing (-.940).
- Left Field (-1.324 team total) has been consistently garbage all season (Nootbaar -.400, Donovan -.655 in 17 games, Burleson -.388 in SIX contests).
- Center Field (-.702 team total) primarily is Scott (poor compared to other CF, within expectations for a young player), with the reserves not providing much help (14 starts, -.420 total).
- Right Field (-.516 team total) is surprisingly the best in the outfield, with Burly (+.844 in 27 games) trying to offset the pathetic offerings otherwise (Lars -.284 in 10 games, Walker -.950).
- Designated Hitter (+.449 team total) can pin most of its success on Herrera (+1.433 in 28 games) with Gorman (+.200) the lone player otherwise with two or more starts and a positive WPA.
- Pinch-hitters & -runners (+.403) is a surprising positive (it’s so easy to accumulate negative value) with good marks from Pozo (+.534), Walker, Baker, & Nootbaar.
By lineup position (+.246 team total):
- Leadoff (-1.110 team total) started off well (+.347 in March/April), but has backslid the remainder of the season, regardless of who resides there. It also has the most negative impact in losses (-2.563), yet has the best record in games of +.060 or better (17-2).
- 2nd spot (-.240 team total) recovered from Willson’s slow start (-.432 in March April), although five games in July have not helped (-.394).
- 3rd spot (-.009 team total) is pretty close to a copy of the 2nd spot in terms of timeline (-.641 March April, +.841 May/June, -.209 July).
- Cleanup (+.888 team total) started strong (+.750 March/April) and has been slightly above par since then (+.138).
- 5th spot (+3.698 team total) has done all of the heavy lifting for the lineup, with Herrera (+1.544 in 15 games), Contreras (+.969 in 17 games), Arenado (+.433, seven games), Donovan (+.392, three games), & Nootbaar (+.379, seven games) all contributing significantly. They also had the greatest spread between wins & losses, despite having the best WPA in defeats (-.213). Plus, the spot has gotten better as the season has progressed (+.350 M/A, +1.092 May, +2.256 J/J). Weirdly enough, the Cardinals are 3-17 when this spot fails to produce, worst on the team.
- 6th spot (-1.174 team total) has the worst WPA in the lineup, yet has a sOPS+ of 94 coming into the break. They also have the least impact in terms of team record for both wins (10-7) & losses (12-15), so their lack of production seems to not matter all that much.
- 7th spot (-.032 team total) has followed the same arc as the 5th spot, getting better each month, just starting lower (-.788 M/A, +.171 May, +.585 J/J).
- 8th spot (-1.038 team total) is basically twice as bad in losses (-2.066) as they are good in wins (+1.028). This lineup position & #9 are surprisingly having an impact on team results; in previous years, their lack of production was kind of a nothing-burger.
- 9th spot (-.737 team total) has the fewest +.060 or better and -.060 or worse games combined out of the entire lineup (11-4 & 7-16, respectively).
In summary, we have a dead-average (by WPA) lineup & rotation being pulled above .500 by a solid relief corps. Our burgeoning non-catcher is carrying our hitters with few surprises (Noot, Banjo Dobro, & the Mighty Pozo) otherwise. If we can limit the amount of bonus baseball and continue our success in high-leverage situations, hopefully we can improve our WPA in the second half.
Please let me know what you think, and I will do what I can to explain my methodology in the comments.
