I wonder if the Cardinals will pick one of these guys
The long awaited MLB Draft is coming later this week. Well, that description probably only applies to a few of you. Baseball isn’t necessarily one of those sports where the draft is hotly anticipated simply because it’s not going to immediately impact your team. Probably. And when I say immediate, I don’t even mean this season. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are picking 5th overall and that does create more excitement than normal. But we’ve already covered any possible player the Cardinals will draft 5th overall. And if you haven’t checked those out yet, I’ll make it easy.
I was trying to think of a way to cover more of the MLB Draft without simply going over the next 15 or so players on the draft board. Because honestly, the Cardinals 2nd pick is quite a bit lower than their 1st overall pick and most of the names I would cover won’t even be available. I did get an idea when some of the scouting reports seemed similar though. Let’s bunch players together based on the type of prospect they are. The idea is that if the Cardinals do draft one of the players I cover, you can come back here or on Thursday’s post and you get a really quick idea of what the prospect is.
Honeyman Stings
These position players are either working through an injury, had a concerning injury, or their injury seemingly affected their play.
Cam Cannarella, OF – Clemson (Highest Ranking, Keith Law: 22)
Cannerella had shoulder surgery following his sophomore season, but his numbers have been down across the board this season, possibly due to not being fully recovered from the injury.
Law: “As a sophomore, he looked like he could be a high-average centerfielder with plus defense, fringy power, and solid on-base skills. Maybe that guy is still in there if you get him fully healthy, which would make him an interesting buy-low opportunity at the end of the first round.”
Ethan Conrad, OF – Wake Forest (Highest Ranking, BP and BA: 22)
He was raking at Wake Forest, but his season ended after just 97 PAs this past college season, when he injured himself diving for a ball. He had season-ending shoulder surgery to repair it.
BP – “The exit velos are well-above-average, but Conrad has only flashed his true power output thus far. A substantially low amount of his hard contact is pulled, and some launch distribution tweaks could result in more damage on his higher-end EVs. A large chunk of his aerial contact is hit hard, and there is serious power potential in his profile at the next level.”
Max Belyeu, OF – Texas (Highest Ranking, BA: 32)
Belyeu missed about seven weeks when he injured his thumb diving for a ball. When he returned, he went 6 for 37 with 15 strikeouts.
Law: “When healthy, he has power and excellent bat speed, with quick hands and a swing he repeats easily. He does expand the zone too often, chasing pitches well out of the zone 19 percent of the time prior to the injury”
Don’t Kross Him
These players are prospects because they can hit. We’ll worry about where they’ll play later.
Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B – Tennessee (Highest Ranking, BP: 15)
Fischer is a left-handed bat who scouts hope can play 3B, but who played mostly 1B this past season. He’s what you might call a launch angle guy as his exit velocities aren’t impressive, but he pulled 15% of his batted balls in the air.
BP: “He will swing hard in all counts, meaning his EV90 is more impressive than the very top end of the exit velos. Overall, Fischer has an offensive profile built for unlocking game power.”
Ethan Petry, 1B – South Carolina (Highest Ranked, BA: 33)
Multiple sites called Petry a “power over hit” guy. The good news is that he has a lot of power, and according to BP, posted an xwOBA in the 95th percentile all three seasons of college.
Pipeline: “The caveat is that he chases pitches excessively, swinging and missing inside and outside of the zone, though he will take walks when opponents pitch around him. He struggled with pitches at the top of and above the strike zone last spring but made adjustments and hammered them with wood bats on the Cape.”
Devin Taylor, OF – Indiana (Highest Ranking, Pipeline: 30)
His bat in college didn’t have many weaknesses. He hit the ball very hard and all the time (59%), didn’t chase or whiff too much. He did play in what is considered a weaker conference for pitchers and his glove won’t provide any value.
Pipeline: “A left-handed hitter with plenty of bat speed and strength, he hits the ball extremely hard and generates power to all fields. He likes to swing the bat but has cut down on his chases this spring, makes consistent contact and has no problems handling breaking pitches.”
Henry Ford, 1B/OF – Virginia (Highest Ranking, Law: 43)
Ford is a young for his class pick. He doesn’t turn 21 until after the draft. There is some hope he can play corner outfield, but he has below average speed and a fringy arm.
Law: “His approach is just OK, as he doesn’t miss much in the zone but chases way too many pitches, even well out of the zone, including fastballs anywhere above the midpoint of the zone and breaking stuff down and away.”
Jack Gurevitch, 1B – San Diego (Highest Ranking, BA: 87)
Despite profiling at 1B, Gurevitch is on the smaller side at a listed height of 6’0. He makes loud contact and is perhaps a bit overaggresive, but there also may be power hidden.
BA: “Gurevitch is one of the better pure hitters on the West Coast. A 6-foot, 215-pound first baseman and lefthanded hitter, he doesn’t have the typical power or size for the position, but can spray the ball on a line all over the field.”
Good Baez Baseball
These players will potentially have trouble making contact, but it’s so easy to dream on their power.
Luke Stevenson, C – UNC (Highest Ranking, BA: 24)
Most everything about Stevenson is good. He had a hard hit rate of 57%, hit 18 homers, can take a walk and should be good enough defensively to stick at catcher. But he struck out a lot.
Law: “His main issue is that he has no two-strike approach at all; if anything, he has an anti-approach, as he swings 32 percent of the time before he gets to two strikes and 49 percent in any two-strike count. He chases more and he whiffs more in zone in those counts, so it’s easy to see how he can be a high-strikeout guy with everything else he does well.”
Mason Neville, OF – Oregon (Highest Ranking, Law: 26)
Neville isn’t only an outfield prospect, but a centerfield prospect, with Law optimistic he could be an above average defender there.
BP – “The top-end EVs were better than ever last season, capping out at 114 mph and averaging just south of 100 mph on aerial contact. Neville has fantastic barrel accuracy and feel for his swing path. The majority of his hard contact comes to his pull-side, and his batted balls often land within the optimal launch-angle range for his monster exit velocities, resulting in a .720 SLG last season.”
Korbyn Dickerson, OF – Indiana (Highest Ranking, BP: 37)
Extremely appropriate player for this category, Dickerson absolutely destroys the ball whenever he makes contact. He struggles though in two-strike situations and against higher quality breaking balls.
BP: “Dickerson still does tons of damage when he connects, frequently taking outer-half breaking balls the opposite way for extra bases, but he does swing over many of those offerings when behind in the count. It feels like Dickerson’s weaknesses could be exploited pretty easily, but a refined breaking ball approach will really serve him well in his next steps.”
Nolan Schubart, OF – OK State (Highest Ranking, BA: 63)
Again, same profile. Hits the ball extremely hard when he makes contact. But he whiffed a third of the time he faced fastballs 94 mph or faster and 40% of the time on all sliders.
BA: “His saving grace offensively is a savvy eye that prevents him from expanding the zone and has led to plenty of walks. Schubart played for USA Baseball’s college national team during the 2024 summer and was one of the best hitters on the team after going 6-for-14 (.429) with two home runs, 13 walks and three strikeouts in six games. He’s a slower runner who will be limited to a corner and might fit best at first base.”
You Do Noot Need to Swing
There are two ways to not strike out. To always swing and never swing. These players don’t swing very often.
Caden Bodine, C – Coastal Carolina (Highest ranking: 17)
Bodine doesn’t swing often, swinging less than 40% of the time. He also doesn’t whiff when he does decide to swing. But he is considered a hit over power bat. And he’s 5’10, so likely not much power coming.
BP: “However, the hit tool is real, making contact with 95% of pitches in-zone and 89% overall, which even given context is plus-plus bat-to-ball ability. While the plate skills are legit from both sides of the plate, he’s shown better contact and feel to lift as a lefty, a product of a much cleaner overall bat path from the left side. Defensively, he’s one of the best framers in the class and should have no issues sticking at catcher.”
Dean Curley, SS/3B – Tennessee (Highest Ranking, Law/BP: 34)
Another player who swings very little, Curley makes contact against all pitch types. There is theoretically power in the tank as he’s 6’3 and posts high exit velocities, but he hits too many balls on the ground.
Law: “He can get to good velocity, but he’ll have to work on pitch recognition at some point in the high minors, maybe in Double A where he’ll see better secondaries on a consistent basis. He’s not a shortstop and probably has his best shot to stay on the dirt at third base.”
Charles Davalan, OF – Arkansas (Highest Ranking, Law: 25)
Davalan is originally from Montreal and is very selective about when to swing. His swing has some loft, so there may be more power than you’d expect from 5’9 outfielder. He’s probably an above average left fielder who may be able to play CF.
BP – “There’s not-insignificant power when he gets into his “A” swing earlier in counts, although he’s extremely picky about when he will swing. Even though it might be a tick below average, the amount of loft in the swing could lead to some pop. With two strikes he shortens up and finishes with a one-handed follow through, and the contact quality plummets, both in terms of exit velocities and how many ground balls he hits.”
Daniel Dickinson, 2B – LSU (Highest Ranking, BA: 57)
Dickinson’s main drawback is a concern about how much power he’ll have. He struggled in the Cape Cod league and it’s not clear he’ll have power with wood bats.
BA: “Dickinson has a relaxed setup at the plate with a compact, yet explosive swing and present bat speed. He has an all-fields approach with an advanced feel for the barrel, with strong bat-to-ball skills that drove an 86% contact rate and 92% in-zone contact rate. Dickinson has a legit middle infielder’s body and should stick at second base.”
Kane Kepley, OF – UNC (Highest Ranking, BA: 60)
Kepley could probably be called a glove first prospect despite his placement being among contact hitters, which he also is. But he’s a glove first prospect because he’s a 60 defender and will steal a lot of bases. He’s also listed at 5’8 and Pipeline thinks he has a flat swing, so real concern about having any power.
Law: “He hit three homers all year, getting a lot of extra slugging percentage from his speed on doubles and triples, but he’s probably got closer to 40 power than 30 — his exit velocities are all a little below the D1 median, but not terribly so. He’s probably a fourth outfielder unless he can add strength, and hitting under .300 in his draft year probably doesn’t help his cause.”
Mitch Voit, 2B – Michigan (Highest Ranking, Law: 54)
Honestly, I didn’t have a better placement for him, since nobody mentions how often he wings. But he walked more than he struck out and makes a lot of contact, so he’s at least in the vicinity of belonging. He was a pitcher who got hurt, so he has the arm to play 3B probably.
Pipeline: “Now that he’s a full-time hitter, Voit has significantly improved his approach, making better swing decisions and barreling balls more regularly. His right-handed stroke can get rotational at times and he can get pull-happy, but he also hits the ball hard and has feel for launching balls in the air.”
Pozo No No Look-o
Always swing.
Alex Lodise, SS – Florida State (Highest Ranking, BA: 26)
Lodise slugged .705 in his junior year and managed a .478 BABIP. The only real problem is that he swings way too much. He should be able to play SS, given him some leeway with the bat.
Law: “He swings hard, often, and that’s what produces the big power, but it means his misses can be huge as well, and he doesn’t have the pure ball/strike recognition to keep his OBP up. If someone gets him to tighten up his swing decisions even a little bit, he could become an everyday player.”
Max Williams, OF – Florida State (Highest Ranking, BP: 46)
With a crouched stance, Williams is a very aggressive, pull-happy hitter which led to high exit velocities and middling contact rates. He played CF at FSU, but might not have the speed to stay at CF.
BP: “At the same time, his blend of power and hand-eye coordination, age, and center field experience lead to high top-end outcomes if his aggressive approach doesn’t get exploited too much.”
Tre Phelps, OF – Georgia (Highest Ranking, Law: 73)
Phelps had an outstanding freshman year, but saw his strikeout rate doubling and power decline in his second year. He did not walk much and is a probable corner outfielder.
Law: “It’s power over hit, with a little too much of a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone; his chase rate on the year was 32 percent, and a very high 29 percent on pitches well out of the zone. He’s only walked 30 times total in 398 PA for the Bulldogs over two years, with no evidence of an adjustment to his approach between the two seasons.”
Metal Sometimes Dies
These players improved their draft stock with their play with wood bats. And while it may be less of a thing now, the Cardinals use to love the Cape Cod darlings.
Brandon Compton, OF – Arizona State (Highest Ranking, BP/BA: 42)
Compton could have been placed in the Don’t Kross Him section, but three different profiles made sure to point out how well he played in the Cape Cod. In addition, he registered three batted balls with an exit velocity of 116 mph while using wood bats at a combine.
BP: “Neutering this power some is the fact that he swings late, which leads to a poor connection point that makes it hard to pull the ball or catch up to velocity. He was also susceptible to chasing sliders, although his patience against other pitch types resulted in a better-than-D1-average chase rate. Even with these potential issues, the combine exit velocity readouts and strong performance on the Cape point to an ability to swing wood bats that could translate well to pro ball.”
Nick Dumesnil, OF – California Baptist (Highest Ranking, BA: 52)
Playing at a smaller school, Dumesnil looked like a high-contact hitter with power, but he struck out a lot more in his latest season. Which is especially a concern because of the level of competition. He could stick in CF.
Law: “He’s a solid athlete who’s a 55 runner and could end up sticking in center field, and what might save him in the end is that he was so good on the Cape, hitting .311/.377/.489 in that wood-bat league, chasing too often (41 percent) but also showing some power to all fields.”
As you can see, I didn’t do any high school bats. There’s way too many high school bats to cover. I’ll see if I can figure something out for Thursday, but I’m most likely going to just cover some pitchers.
