4 games against the Brew Crew approach
Intro
The 36-32 Cardinals come off a rare losing home stand where the lost the last 4 to start a seven-game road trip to Milwaukee, then Chicago, with a day off in between series. This set is a 4 games.
The 36-33 Brewers are continuing a homestand that started with hosting the slumping Atlanta Braves, who took 2 of 3 from the Brewers. The Brewers trail the Cardinals in the standings.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Thursday – Gray vs Misiorowski @ 6:40p (all times Central)
Friday – Fedde vs Peralta @ 7:10p
Saturday – Pallante vs Quintana @ 3:10p
Sunday – Mikolas vs Priester @ 1:10p
Quick peek at the pitching/run prevention
On Thursday, the Brewers will feature 23-year-old, hard throwing RHP Jacob Misiorowski making his season, and MLB, debut. He is a high-octane, high K-rate pitcher. Common with most young pitchers of this ilk, his command can be flighty at times, but he keeps a decent K-BB ratio. Should be an interesting match-up with a good fastball hitting team.
On Friday, 29-year-old right hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound. He is their best pitcher. 2.92 ERA/3.96 FIP. A 25% K rate. A .262 BABIP. This Brewer team features a good defense that suppresses BABIP all around.
On Saturday, ageless Jose Quintana faces the Cards. He is a left-hander, so will be a tough match for this RH deficient team.
On Sunday, the Brewers list as TBD. TBD is the most common probable starter listed these days. I figure it to be Jacob Priester. He is a 24 y/o RHP. He appears to be a low_K, heavy sinker guy. With parts of 3 seasons data, he shows around 90th percentile in GB rate. He features a 15% K rate and an 11% walk rate in his MLB action this year. His ERA is a decent 3.88, but an FIP 4.58 and a BABIP of .247 suggest some measure of luck plus that good defense that bolsters a young pitcher’s results.
The Brewer’s defense is on-par with the Cardinals, ranked 4th (right behind St. Louis) in team DEF. Overall, the Brewers pitching is average by ERA, just a tad worse by FIP and the gap can be explained by stellar defensive play.
A peak at the offense
Milwaukee’s offense is ranked 25th in the league by wRC+. This is not a great hitting team. Hoskins, Frelich and Yelich are their best hitters. Yelich has 13 HR. They are a VERY good baserunning team, leading the league in BsR. Expect them to run a lot this series.
About the venue
American Family Field plays a little more pitcher friendly, suppressing offense 4% from average. It does goose HR’s a bit (+ 7% over average). With the roof open, that goose climbs to +15% over average on the HR, so something to keep an eye on pre-game.
These teams are tied (both near the bottom) in HR/power metrics.
Overall
Defense and speed are this team’s hallmarks, with enough pitching to get by.
Not much separates these teams, who are 1⁄2 game apart in the standings. Similar profiles. Cromulent, but not dominant pitching. Good defense, low power offense with an edge to St. Louis. Team record and pythag are spot on. The Cardinals seem to play better against good teams, the Brewers do better beating up the bad ones. Speed might be the biggest differentiator.
Cardinal updates
Looking for Walker go out on a rehab assignment as his series starts. I’m not sure that assignment will be long.
When I originally sized this series up, I expected McGreevy would continue in a six-man rotation and get one of these starts. But when they optioned him after last Sunday’s start, they aced themselves out of that for 15 days. I’m sure they view needing an extra arm in the bullpen as the higher priority. Baseball has a way of making teams pay for decisions like this.
