Also a chance to vote for the #12 prospect
I have a feeling some people do not vote for the person who they actually want at that spot because they know they aren’t going to win this specific vote. It is, hypothetically, a wasted vote. I think that has ended. I think it truly feels like anyone can win the vote, so there is no such thing as a wasted vote. In Monday’s game, seven players got at least 30 votes. The winner of the vote had what is surely the lowest percentage of total votes that any winner has gotten this year and maybe even throughout the entire time I’ve been doing this. Closeness or not, a winner must be crowned and a winner was crowned.
And it was CLOSE. Could not be closer in fact. I don’t usually close the votes – they have a predetermined ending, but it’s well after I reveal the results. But in this case, I had to close the votes. Because by the time you see this, someone else could have been leading. I closed the votes at 10:00 pm yesterday so I could write this article! Chen Wei-Lin ended up pulling ahead at the very end.
Here’s the list:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
Comparable Player Corner
We’re going to go backwards a bit here. One of the strengths of the system is the catching from MLB to down to the rookie leagues. You will not see a deeper system in the majors. I don’t see how. Two catchers are in the top 10, and one is in the voting. A fourth catcher may be added. This vote is about that fourth catcher. I expect the vote to be predictable, but my two primary sources for which players to pay attention to – Baseball Prospectus and The Cardinal Nation – do not have these players ranked in the same order. So at least in theory, it’s not a sure thing who that fourth catcher should be. Which is where you come.
Ryan Campos, drafted in the 4th round of the 2024 draft, managed a 133 wRC+ in 26 games in Low A following the draft. His main appeal is his 90% in-zone contact rate in Low A, which led to a 1:1 K/BB ratio. He’s a little smaller and power is a concern. He’ll be 22, and in High A.
Sammy Hernandez, acquired in the Genesis Cabrera trade, managed to hit for a 118 wRC+ in Low A, and perform well in the 8 games he played at High A. He’ll be 21 and playing most of next season at High A.
New addition
Back when I ran a comparable player poll of Gordon Graceffo, Max Rajcic, and Ian Bedell, a surprising thing happened. Graceffo dominated the votes and Racjic and Bedell were almost dead even. Rajcic narrowly got more votes. It kind of muddied up my plans, because it meant I needed to add Rajcic and Bedell at about the same time. Except that’s not what I’m doing. Technically speaking, Graceffo did not win this vote, so I feel safe in excluding Bedell for another week. Although I actually was not going to add Bedell this week even if Graceffo won (because Rajcic looks nowhere close to winning yet).
And the reason I had to change the plan that was already changed was because several people in the comments want Yairo Padilla. Now, I explained my reasoning in the past. I ran Raniel Rodriguez against Yairo Padilla head to head. Rodriguez won pretty easily. Thus, my logic was if Rodriguez isn’t getting votes, Padilla won’t either. Rodriguez still hasn’t really gotten votes. I’m adding Padilla anyway. 60% of people preferred Rodriguez, but there’s a chance the 40% of the votes Padilla got are greater believers in Padilla (and DSL prospects in general) than the Rodriguez voters. I guess we’ll see.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
I’ll change tacks in my profile. What do you expect from Cho this season? Do you expect 2024 to essentially be like a lost year, as he has a 2025 that we expected from him last year? Do you expect his struggles to continue? Or do you think he’ll make up for lost ground and explode out of the gate? Probably not the latter if you guys aren’t voting for him now, to be honest.
Gordon Graceffo, RHP – 25
LYR: #6
Stats (AAA): 27 G, 130 IP, 18.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 40.2 GB%, .328 BABIP, 4.85 ERA/5.17 FIP/5.17 xFIP
BP: “He averaged 92.8 in Triple-A and 93.5 in a brief spell in the majors this season, and at that velocity his fastball shape really isn’t enough to miss bats and his changeup doesn’t play as well as a swing-and-miss pitch.”
Similar question, but obviously from a very different place. Do you expect him to spend the majority of 2025 in the MLB? And is that coming in the bullpen or rotation? Do the Cardinals use him as part of the bullpen shuttle. I actually genuinely have no clue what the Cardinals plan for Graceffo is this season. Making the team out of spring training in the rotation is about the only thing that would really surprise me, and that relies on a lot of couple things going wrong more than Graceffo himself.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
The one thing holding back Honeyman is obviously the injuries, but a part of me wonders if a fully healthy Honeyman ends up just jumping through the minors. Like okay, we’ve had two wasted years, let’s just speed-run through this thing to get you where you should be. They did this with Lars Nootbaar, they arguably did it with Matt Koperniak (both influenced by no minor league season in 2020), and they recently did it with Quinn Mathews (more related to him already being 23; well that and his dominance)
Matt Koperniak, OF – 27
LYR: Unranked
Stats (AAA): 513 PAs, .309/.370/.512, 8.4 BB%, 18.7 K%, .203 ISO, .351 BABIP, 128 wRC+, 116 DRC+
BP: I’m going to be real. I don’t think BP has written a single word about him. And I mean ever.
Matt Koperniak would be sitting so, so pretty if he were just right-handed. He would absolutely make the team out of spring training, especially if he showed a proclivity to hitting left-handed hitters (like Luken Baker). Him being left-handed is his greatest road-block. Well, and that he’s 27 already, most successful MLB careers do not start at 27.
Yairo Padilla, SS – 18
LYR: Unranked
Stats (DSL): 162 PAs, .287/.391/.404, 10.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, .118 ISO, .355 BABIP, 121 wRC+
BP: “Padilla is an eye scouting marvel: a tall, skinny, classically projectable 17-year-old who takes a smooth swing from both sides of the plate. If you believe in the old ways of scouting even a little bit, you’re liable to see a future star here.”
The case for Padilla is reflected in the sentence above, in one of two paragraphs they wrote about Padilla. Unfortunately, they wrote a second paragraph and that would be the argument against him. Which is to say: he doesn’t hit the ball hard and his exit velocity numbers are low compared to top DSL players his age.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
Rajcic is still young and hasn’t seen AAA yet, but he does need to be added to the 40 man roster at the end of 2025, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him a little bit this upcoming season. Kind of depends on where the Cardinals are, how he’s doing, if the Cardinals get hit with an injury bug or trade/release current rotation members. But he might make his MLB debut this season.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 23
LYR: #10
Stats (AAA): 16 G (14 GS), 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.61 xFIP/5.25 DRA
BP: Robberse at least has some whiffier offerings in his sweeper and hard changeup—which is only four mph off his fastball—and his cutterish slider has utility too, so of this group he might have the most relief conversion potential.
Robberse has way less of a hurdle to join the MLB club at some point: he’s already on the 40 man and burned his first of three options. The only reason we didn’t see him at the end of last season was because he was hurt. He missed nearly two months beginning in the middle of June, and while he made some appearances late, they functioned more as rehab outings than real starts.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
Whereas I would argue Padilla is something of a scouting pick, Rodriguez is probably more of a “holy shit his stats are good” pick. Also he plays catcher while doing this. Of course, the road to the majors involves checks notes five more minor league levels before he reaches the majors.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
I guess the theme of this vote is me wondering what the Cardinals’ rough outline of a plan is regarding their prospects. Saladin already made 12 starts at High A and they were arguably comparable to his starts in Low A (not from a run prevention standpoint, but K/BB and GBs certainly). So, obviously pending his performance, but how long do they want him in High A?
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
I am curious about what the plan is for Showalter’s innings, because I imagine at some point, he’ll have to take a big leap forward. He’s only at 34 innings right now. Hence actually started at 60 innings with the AFL included, and then jumped to 96. Showalter is at 34 right now. You got to think they want about 70 innings in 2025, assuming they still want him to start, that is?
In honor of dr. howl making a music section of his posts, I feel compelled to bless you guys with this music mashup.
