Take two!
If you randomly stumbled onto this post without following the first five votes, first off hello. Second, I screwed up the sixth vote on Monday. I completely omitted Chase Davis, who out of the 9 people on the ballot, was one of the few serious contenders to become the #6 prospect. In fact, there were three serious candidates, which is why we’re here today.
I realized I made the mistake too late in the day. I did run a poll on what I should do next and 386 people responded. And the options were to just re-run the poll with the same names (but Chase Davis included), to have a head to head option of what were the two presumptive favorites, or to have the three clear favorites in a poll to become the #6 prospect. The latter one won, which is why today’s vote for the #6 prospect only includes three names. I’m just going to copy and paste my profile’s from Monday’s post, which of course included a blurb about Davis, but somehow he didn’t end up on the poll. They are in alphabetical order.
Chase Davis, OF – 23
LYR: #8
Stats (Low A): 34 G, 131 PAs, .232/.337/.401, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, .169 ISO, .293 BABIP, 111 wRC+, 114 DRC+
High A: 74 G, 315 PAs, .301/.388/.451, 10.1 BB%, 25.1 K%, .150 ISO, .383 BABIP, 144 wRC+, 103 DRC+
AA: 8 G, 31 PAs, .250/.323/.429, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, .179 ISO, .273 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 99 DRC+
BP: “Davis has, at individual times over the last two years, flashed every tool and skill needed for a star outcome. He just hasn’t shown them consistently as a pro.”
Your faith in Davis probably depends on two things: your faith in his narrative and your faith in his defense. He’s a different kind of prospect if he can play CF even passably. And his narrative is that he figured out how to hit in pro ball some point repeating Low A, and now he can take off like the 1st round talent that he is. If you doubt either of those things, you probably aren’t as high on him as a prospect.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 24
LYR: #7
Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA
AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA
BP: “That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached…. He does not yet possess anything close to Sale’s ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty.”
This might be the make or break season for Hjerpe to stay healthy for longer than 20 starts. His career professional high so far is just 15 starts, which he did reach last season, although he only managed 11 more innings last season than when he appeared in 10 games in 2023. I feel like they are going to give him the Ryan Helsley treatment if he has another injury-filled year and honestly it’d be hard to blame them if he has three straight years of making less than 20 starts.
Michael McGreevy, RHP – 24
LYR: #9
Stats (AAA): 27 GS, 150 IP, 21.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 49 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/3.86 FIP/4.17 xFIP/4.66 DRA
BP: “He throws basically every offspeed imaginable—something in the gyro slider/cutter range, sweeping slider, change, overhand curve, he’s got them all—and the sweeping slider is the best now, but we’re not talking an obvious plus offering, either.”
McGreevy comes with a couple questions, namely “How much do you trust his AAA stats to translate to the MLB?” and “How much do you care about ceiling?” However you think about him as a prospect hinges on your answers to those two questions.
Comparable Player Corner
Hey while you’re here, I might as well keep this feature running. I still have more than a few comparable player polls in mind, and the earlier I know this information, the better. So why not take advantage of an unfortunate mistake and be better informed for when I add players.
Today is quite simple and it’s something of a difficult vote I’ll admit. The reason it’s difficult is because we have zero, and I mean zero, professional stats on any of these guys. That’s right. Today we’re looking at 2024 draft picks, specifically pitchers. The Cardinals have had a habit of shutting down pitchers they select in the draft, and they didn’t actually have a choice with two of them. Here are your options.
Andrew Dutkanych IV, a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher out of Vanderbilt. He is almost all potential. He was a top 50 prospect coming out of high school, but chose to go to Vandy. He threw 17 total innings at Vandy. He missed most of 2023 to a hamstring injury, and underwent TJ at an unspecified date, but they announced he needed it at the end of March last year.
Blake Newberry’s report: His fastball sits 94 and was reportedly up to 97 as a high schooler and it comes with over 19 inches of riding life on average. The go-to secondary is an 85 mph two-placed slider with good depth and around 5 inches of glove side break on average. That’s already a solid enough two-pitch mix but Dutkanych has shown a potentially lethal curveball with just under -20 inches of induced vertical break at 80 mph.
Jack Findlay, a left-handed 22-year-old out of Notre Dame. He was selected in the 8th round, but like Dutkanych, he would have been selected higher if it weren’t for the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery last April. In both cases, an April surgery seems like it could be mean they will be back in the 2nd half or just miss the whole year again.
Blake’s report: His fastball has a unique shape and got 92nd percentile whiffs in college, but it’s just 89 mph. His slider averaged 11 inches of break, but got middling whiff rates. His curve has an impressive sweeping profile, but wasn’t used much. The highlight of Findlay’s stuff is his ability to get glove side break on all of his pitches. And I mean all of his pitches.
Brian Holiday, a right-handed 22-year-old out of Oklahoma State. He was selected in the 3rd round and as far as I know, is fully healthy. You’ll get Blake’s report, but the way he describes him, he’s Michael McGreevy part two. The 3rd round version of him anyway.
Blake’s report: Brian Holiday is a polished, undersized, pitchability righty who doesn’t have loud stuff but put up great numbers in college and on the Cape while throwing a ton of strikes. The fastball and the slider look like solid pitches, but the curveball and the changeup lag a bit behind, and the stuff overall isn’t too loud. The real plus is Holiday’s above average command which enabled him to walk just 4.2% of the batters he faced in 2024.
This actually weirdly worked out for me. The 2024 draft guys required more information and thus a lot more words than I’d typically want to write in a normal vote. So in a word-light post for the regular poll, good opportunity to expand more on these guys’ profiles. And before you complain, no these 2024 draft picks are not getting added soon. The top vote getter will get added at some point, but if you’re worried that a pitchability starter or an injured guy are going to clog up votes, I have players in mind ahead of them.
