Also vote on the 2nd best prospect
In a not totally shocking twist, it turns out fans trust position players more than pitchers. There ended up being only three contenders for the first spot and really by the voting, it was really a one-man show. Wetherholt received over half the votes. You guys are certainly in agreement with the national outlets.
At this point, I view adding prospects a bit differently than later on, when the voting will be a little more uncertain. The way I see it, the next six prospects I pick could basically be interchangeable. I say that not because the prospects themselves are interchangeable (although you could make that argument), but because most of us can see who the next two people are going to be. Not the order, but which two players. What this means is that the only real pressure I have is to make sure the “right’ six players are selected by that fourth vote, when seemingly anyone has a shot.
So I might not pick who you want this particular time, but don’t you worry. As long as he’s here by vote #4, that’s all that really matters. So I’m making two additions. The first is Cooper Hjerpe, who this site has tended to love and I see no reason that will change this year. The second is Leonardo Bernal, for really one reason. People may think he’s the better prospect between him and Jimmy Crooks. I’m not saying they will, but pretty much no result will surprise me when it comes to Crooks and Bernal and how close they place to each other.
Leonard Bernal, C – 21
LYR: #13
Stats (High A): 96 G, 382 PAs, .270/.343/.419, 9.7 BB%, 22.8 K%, .150 ISO, .333 BABIP, 120 wRC+, 110 DRC+
AA: 14 G, 55 PAs, .204/.291/.286, 10.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, .082 ISO, .231 BABIP, 68 wRC+, 101 DRC+
AFL: 13 G, 51 PAs, .304/.373/.391, 9.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, .087 ISO, .361 BABIP
BP: A 20-year-old catcher who hits from both sides of the plate and has an assortment of well-rounded useful offensive abilities projects to be a starter more often than not.”
I wish I could share a stat helping to understand the context of the AFL, so you’ll just have to trust me when I say that is actually a below average hitting line. It’s not even really debatable. The average OBP is .373 and the average slugging is .434. If I had to guess a wRC+, I would say a 90 wRC+. I’m not trying to throw cold water on him, it’s just easy to look at that stat line and think “wow he really hit in the AFL” and he really kind of didn’t because offense is just that high.
Jimmy Crooks III, C – 23
LYR: #16
Stats (AA): 90 G, 371 PAs, .321/.410/.498, 11.6 BB%, 21 K%, .178 ISO, .390 BABIP, 156 wRC+, 124 DRC+
BP: “Defensively, Crooks has the traditional markers of catcherdom: a stout, sturdy frame and an above-average arm, which he used to throw out 33% of opposing baserunners. He should be a solid enough framer and overall receiver to stick behind the dish.”
An injury to Crooks is actually why Bernal saw any time in AA. In late August, Crooks went on the injured list, giving playing time for Bernal. By the time Crooks returned, there wasn’t even a week’s worth of games left to play. So I figure the Cardinals didn’t see the point, especially from a player who had to recover from injuries. Feels like he did enough to get promoted to Memphis at some point.
Tink Hence, RHP – 22
LYR: #2
Stats (AA): 20 GS, 79.2 IP, 34.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 41.7 GB%, .302 BABIP, 2.71 ERA/2.51 FIP/2.62 xFIP/3.06 DRA
BP: “He runs astronomical whiff rates including in the zone on his changeup, which has taken clear steps forward to become his primary secondary offering (and perhaps one he should be leaning on more than he currently is). Hence has moved away from his impressively moving but loopy curveball over the course of his pro career, leaning instead on a gyro slider that could play to an out-pitch with further development.”
Hence is a pretty clear prospect at this point. He has one drawback: innings/health. The health is a bit overstated because he hasn’t actually been injured that often, the Cardinals have intentionally and strategically limited his innings. Last year, performance-wise, he actually took a step forward. He had better stats in AA in 2024 than he did at either High A or AA last year, and way better stats in his second attempt in AA. Innings-wise, which has turned into the only real concern with him, was not a promising development. But not necessarily disastrous either, he only made 3 less starts than 2023.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 24
LYR: #7
Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA
AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA
BP: “That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached…. He does not yet possess anything close to Sale’s ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty.”
Kind of a fascinating difference between the advanced stats I have typically used and BP’s in-house stat, DRA. It looks like he was handling AA pretty good, but not if you look at DRA. And to be completely fair, a 4.76 DRA is still close to average in the run environment at Springfield. The big difference is that he got a lot less groundballs in Springfield and none of the flyballs really left the yard. DRA thinks that can’t continue. The difference is probably that easy to explain.
Quinn Mathews, LHP – 24
LYR: N/A
Stats (Low to AA): 22 GS, 126.2 IP, 36.7 K%, 7.1 BB%, .254 BABIP, 2.27 ERA/2.37 FIP/2.97 DRA
AAA: 4 GS, 16.2 IP, 27.8 K%, 17.7 BB%, 45.2 GB%, .405 BABIP, 6.48 ERA/4.23 FIP/4.53 xFIP/4.49 DRA
BP: “What was once a pedestrian fastball is now a strong pitch. Mathews pairs that with a low-80s changeup that tunnels extremely well with his fastball shape and arm action. His mid-80s slider can play as a third out-pitch especially against lefties, although it has some shape inconsistency that he might need to tighten up to get more chase from major-league hitters.”
Mathews advanced so quickly to AAA that he began the year as a very old for his level prospect and ended it as a young for his level prospect. I don’t consider 24 especially young for AAA, but nonetheless he’s still going to be young for his level next year. It will be seen as a massive disappointment if he doesn’t prove himself ready for the majors at some point in this upcoming season.
Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B – 23
LYR: #5
Stats (AAA): 125 G, 528 PAs, .253/.313/.438, 5.9 BB%, 23.1 K%, .186 ISO, .296 BABIP, 93 wRC+, 99 DRC+
AFL: 18 G, 82 PAs, .391/.524/.594, 19.5 BB%, 17.1 K%, .203 ISO, .489 BABIP
BP: “You may remember me from such Cardinals infield success stories as Brendan Donovan and Paul DeJong”
Saggese is the kind of prospect that could be the prospect equivalent of a Rorschach test. You can essentially see whatever you want in how he played. If you are negative on him as a prospect, well to be honest the stats support that. If you are positive on him, you likely saw encouraging defense at the MLB level, and a 22-year-old who held his own in AAA, and absolutely obliterated the AFL. Admittedly, it’s a competitive level he really had no business being in, but at least he treated the league like he had no business being in it.
Also, I won’t get this opportunity very often, but let me know how you feel about skipping the third vote. Assuming the voting goes as expected, this will essentially be a two-horse race, and if that is the case, we can probably assume that the person who doesn’t win today would win the third vote. Can we make that assumption? Just feels like a waste of time when we all know the outcome. Again, if the voting here tells me differently, I will change approaches, but if the first vote (and the comments quite frankly) are indicative of how this vote goes, there is literally no reason to hold a third vote.
I am going to share a second poll, and before you vote on that, I want to stress a couple things. First, pay attention to the wording. You have to agree with every part. You have to think the third vote would be something like a blowout. Also important: your personal #3 may very well be different than how you think the third vote is going to go. Do not vote no automatically because of that. You actually have to believe your guy has a chance. If you “know” he’s not going to win, you probably agree with the following statement
