After committing to the rebuild that was staring them in the face for a few seasons, the St. Louis Cardinals kicked off the transition with a solid 2026 campaign. By most accounts, the Cardinals outperformed preseason expectations, but many fans still believe that a successful season ends with at least one game in October.
That is a tough line to walk as a fan and a writer about the team. I want the Cardinals to go 162-0 and win the World Series every year, but in down stretches, I also understand the need for selling off veteran assets for young prospects. However, I am anti-tanking in pretty much every scenario, especially in baseball where the best draft picks are hopefully debuting within 2 seasons of being selected. Even in a rebuild, a front office should be able to put up a .500 team that allows for interesting conversations as the season progresses.
The Cardinals had a .500 or better team for much of the season, even if it was due to a combination of factors that had the team playing at an unsustainable rate. Expected stats aside, it was reality when the Cardinals were nine games over .500 multiple times and looked to be putting together a postseason contender with a roster of mixed experienced players all in their 20s. While I never expected the Cardinals to buy aggressively at the deadline, there was an opportunity to improve serious areas of concern that would in no way, shape, or form change whatever timeline Chaim Bloom decides to set.
Cardinals’ overperformance in 2026 may set unrealistic expectations for 2027 season
By the end of the year, it was obvious the Cardinals would not have what it takes for an extended playoff run if they made it to October, but neither did the Cubs who were supposed to be title contenders. The White Sox came off of three straight 100 loss seasons to win a mediocre division and did so with a team not too dissimilar from the Cardinals. The Southsiders showed what I hoped Bloom would realize, and that is the fact that even small upgrades can pay big dividends without being the “shortcuts” he keeps referencing.
The last line may be unfair to Bloom, but he has mentioned his unwillingness to “take shortcuts” from their long-term plan which hopefully will end in a 12th World Series title. Cutting corners in this scenario would probably mean spending hundreds of millions in free agency for veterans in their primes at positions the Cardinals already have young talent. After a 2026 season of runways at third base, center field, and the bullpen, Bloom can easily afford to commit resources to those spots without taxing the future.
Thomas Saggese and Blaze Jordan seem to be players with solid MLB futures, but neither profile as the 30-homer third baseman who plays solid defense the Cardinals need. Jesus Baez has been outstanding and is at least a year away, so that clearly looks like a hole at third base without a close answer. To me, Saggese could become the 2027 version of Jose Fermin and still see plenty of playing time while Blaze could have an early role at third, first, or DH.
If the Cardinals opted to invest in a one-year veteran stopgap in 2027 to hold the fort down for Baez, what is Chaim Bloom really risking? Bloom has kind of said that the team is not going to be playoff-ready next year, but why not? With two-thirds of the lineup locked in, spending money on a couple spots instead of a handful should be much easier and, honestly, expected for me. On any team with clear needs, an offseason goal should be to satisfy those needs as effectively as possible. The Cardinals have taken the cost-effective way rather than use a performance-based strategy, and that makes little sense to me.
The same can be said for center field, where Nathan Church is surely fine there but the Cardinals could find an upgrade at a reasonable cost. In the bullpen, Bloom (I hate to say this) took the lazy way out and continued to give Oliver Marmol the same few guys to work with while the rest of the bullpen was overworked. In any other team truly looking to compete, so many guys would have been out of the job and maybe would not even be able to sign on elsewhere. Despite that, we got to see multiple relievers stay on the 40-man roster for no other reason than cost savings.
The Cardinals spent plenty of the season five games or more over .500 and sitting in an exciting spot during the 2026 season. They outperformed expectations but despite the clear faults in the roster, Bloom was comfortable speaking of how the future was more important than supplementing the career seasons he was seeing put in front of him at Busch. Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker were the best run producers in the league while JJ Wetherholt and Masyn Winn put up historic numbers up the middle. Even with that happening, Fermin, Ramon Urias, and Pedro Pages were getting regular at-bats with the bullpen featuring just a couple supplements from outside the organization.
The reasoning was always the same, the Cardinals needed to figure out what they already had on the roster. While that argument was acceptable for me for third and center, the bullpen is a spot that is going to differ every season no matter the contention window. Replacing someone like Chris Roycroft with Ryan Fernandez and Matt Pushard is an unserious move for the postseason at a spot on the roster that has the least impact on a club long-term.
Why were we too quick to accept the fact that Bloom can make no wrong and his strategy is the best way? I know much of this article has sounded negative, but I am 100% behind Bloom and still understand most of the long-term vision. Where I do not know if I will ever see eye-to-eye is why there was a refusal to cash in on Burly and Walker while supplementing Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy in the rotation with one-year rentals. The Dustin May move was a match made in heaven and the success of that move makes me more upset that type of investment could not have been made among two or three more bullpen arms.
Bloom paid May a total of $10 million for half of a season of work and netted a fantastic return by all accounts. If Bloom had decided to also throw $10-15 million into the bullpen, he could have found some decent talent with no risk. Worst case, you cut ties with a few million dollars on a team that did not have real postseason aspirations. Middle case, you get a solid half season run and flip the reliever for more prospects or cost-controlled players. Best case, these arms cut away a dozen of the 38 blown saves from the Cardinals bullpen and Busch Stadium is packing the place instead of offering free tickets in hopes people show up.
Even with all of those disappointing shortcomings for me, the Cardinals appear to have a core that won 77 games this past season. Bloom is truthfully a fan of the team and wants to see success, but now I want that 77 win total to be his new baseline for success. Of course, wins do not tell the entire story of a season, but with a 162-game sample size, the record more often than not matches the performance.
I am going into the 2027 season expecting a run at .500. Is that exciting? No, but it shows a push in the right direction. The Cardinals could have easily clinched a winning record with just a tiny bit more effort towards clear roster needs, but the supposed shortcuts would have been so detrimental to the future that St. Louis would never see another championship.
To wrap this up, I am not upset with the way the 2026 season went. I never expected this team to win less than 70 games, but there was definitely some meat left on the 77-win bone. We will never know if an additional $30 million would have made a difference for the Cardinals 2026 season, but with all the talks of payroll buying championships, it seems that spending more money would increase the chances at postseason success.
— This probably seemed much more negative or accusatory than was meant to be, but I do think I am in the right to feel frustrated at some of the non-activity by the front office. I am not saying I wanted to ship away Liam Doyle and Rainiel Rodriguez for a win-now move at the deadline, but saying goodbye to some Double-A depth for major league talent is a defendable move in nearly all circumstances —
Thanks as always!
