Well, it’s been a few weeks since games have ended and I think it’s time to be done debating about whether or not, or how, the Cardinal 2026 was, or was not, a success. Each will have their own point of view and each has had their say. Many various takes, for sure. One of the things I find myself most hopeful about is the apparent strength of the minor league pipeline. It made me curious about … when did it really start getting better? So, I went back to the 2023 trade deadline to see how recent transactions ended up impacting the longer-term view.
To walk back a little bit in time, here was Baseball America’s top 15 prospects for the Cardinals coming into 2023:
- Jordan Walker
- TinkHence
- Masyn Winn
- Mathewe Liberatore
- Cooper Hjerpe
- Alec Burleson
- Ivan Herrera
- Michael McGreevy
- Jonaten Mejia
- Zach Thompson
- Leo Baez
- Brycen Mautz
- Pete Hansen
Interesting. Not a bad group. By and large, they were right on with 11 of them. Not so much Mejia, Thompson or Hansen. Hence and Thompson are injury related and Hansen really is the start of the rest of the list of guys that haven’t (and mostly won’t) make it. Fangraphs had the overall system ranking middling at #15. I can’t find BA’s rank that year or I’d use it.
The 2023 Trades
2023, if you haven’t blocked that nightmare out, was a shocking reversal of fortunes for the Cardinals. They went from pretty good in 2022 to awful in 2023. Many things went wrong. Little went right. That year’s trade deadline was the first capitulation we’d seen from long-term GM/POBO John Mozeliak. Mo’s stated goal was to bolster the farm system. Let’s look at how that turned out.
- Jordan Hicks was traded for Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein.
- Paul DeJong was traded for Matt Svanson.
- Genesis Cabrera was traded for Sammy Hernandez.
- Jack Flaherty was traded for Cesar Prieto, Drew Rom, Zack Showalter.
- Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton for Thomas Saggese, Tekoah Roby and John King.
Rather than pick apart any one player, let’s see how that played out organization wide. First, FA’s post-deadline update reduced the Cardinal’s farm system rank from 15 to 17. Part of this is the result of Walker, Burleson and Liberatore graduating the list, but the net-net is the trades weren’t viewed as bolstering the system as much just partially offsetting losses, but otherwise continuing a pattern of slow decline.
Now, three (plus) years later, only one of those acquired players remains a Cardinal prospect – TK Roby. Saggese and Prieto have graduated from the prospect list but not found footing in MLB. King was a useful low leverage lefty before being moved on. Rom, Kloffenstein, Thompson and Robberse all fell under the sorcerer’s spell and succumbed to injury. Svanson had a remarkably good year in 2025 and a remarkably bad year in 2026, so appears to be a fungible reliever, until proven otherwise. What is Hernandez?
The 2024 Trades
Unlike 2023, the 2024 trade deadline offered the Cardinals the siren song of a potential wild card birth and so they moved pieces off and on the major league roster for a final run for a team that ultimately finished with 83 wins. They really did nothing to improve their longer-term organizational outlook. Actually it did. It made the outlook worse.
- In a three-team trade, the Cardinals sent away Tommy Edman and prospect Oliver Gonzalez (who, still at 19 years old, carries a 20 grade for command and a 70 grade for FB), receiving back Tommy Pham and Erik Fedde. Other players were involved from the White Sox and Dodgers side, but no impact to the Cardinals (other than facilitating a trade that did not work out well at all).
- In a more traditional deal, Dylan Carlson was dealt to Tampa for Shawn Armstrong.
Fangraphs took a dim view of this and re-ranked the overall Cardinal system down from 17th to 21st in MLB. The pattern of slow decline accelerated as they moved toward the bottom. The Cardinals didn’t have a ton of promotions from AAA that year, so I take from this re-rank that FG had a very dim view of the 2024 Cardinal draft, as well. This isn’t a draft recap, but in retrospect, it appears that only one player from that draft may be impactful (a guy named Wetherholt). Reminder that they did not have a second-round draft pick due to a free agent signing.
The 2025 trades
In looking at this, what I realize is that the first meaningful moves toward rebuilding the prospect pipeline began to happen in July, 2025. Along with the 2025 draft (too soon to evaluate):
- Ryan Helseley was traded for Jesus Baez, Nate Dohn and Frank Ellisalt.
- Steven Matz was traded to Boston for Blaze Jordan.
- Phil Maton was traded to Texas for Mason Molina.
In some combination of draft, IFA and trade acquisitions, the 2025 changes resulted in Fangraphs re-ranking the Cardinal MiLB pipeline from 21st the year prior to 2nd in late 2025. Quite a jump. Then we had the 2025-2026 off-season which saw:
- Sonny Gray traded to Boston for Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts.
- Willson Contreras was traded to Boston for Hunter Dobbins, Blake Aita, Yoiker Fajardo
- Nolan Arenado was traded to Arizona for Jack Martinez.
- In a 3-way trade, Brendan Donovan was sent to Seattle and the Cardinals received Jurrangelo Cijntje, Tai Peete, Colton Ledbetter and a Comp-B pick in the 2026 draft (which became Andrew Williamson).
The 2026 trades
2026 ended up being a fairly quiet year for in-season trades, but was a return to the 2023 priority of enhancing the prospect base.
- Dustin May and JoJo Romero were dealt to Milwaukee for Josiah Ragsdale and Alexander Frias.
- Lars Nootbaar was dealt to Arizona for Daniel Eagen, Sandro Santana and ultimately (PTBNL) Brian Curley.
The net of these last transactions and graduations (of which there were many) has moved the Cardinals from #2 to #4 on the Fangraphs system rankings, which isn’t concerning given that JJ Wetherholt was among the players falling off the prospect list. What this tells me is that even though a player like Wetherholt fell off, the Cardinals were able to acquire enough new talent via trades and draft to maintain a place among the elite systems, even with Wetherholt graduating.
What can we take from all this?
What can we learn from this series of deals? Well, I suppose one could conclude that Boston and Arizona liked the Cardinals MLB roster better than StL did, and StL liked the Red Sox and Dbacks farm systems better than Boston and Arizona did.
We can observe that the vast majority of talent acquired was of the pitching variety. The later trades (particular this trade deadline) we start to see a shift towards acquiring position players such as Arias and Ragsdale. We can also observe that most of acquired players do not require 40-man protection yet. These are not random outcomes. It was planned this way.
For the most part, I take this whole sequence of trades as confirmation that the talent portion of the rebuild didn’t really begin until the middle of 2025 and gained steam with the POBO transition that occurred later that year. Certainly, the rebuild of the front office, particularly the player develop org began a year or so earlier. But not the talent. My own personal assessment is that the Cardinals have really only accomplished rebuilding the pitching side of the roster and have yet to fully address the position player side. They aren’t without talent or prospects, but I’m not sure they have enough.
Hence, all the questions around Catcher, Thirdbase, Centerfield, etc. I think it possible that they believe the young group of position players they already have, plus the few that are coming might be enough, but I tend to doubt it. Along with teams can’t have enough pitching, they also can’t have enough position players who can hit and they don’t yet have that abundance like they appear to possess on the pitching side. The current situation leaves them too vulnerable to one or two key position prospects flaming out and ruining the whole transition. I believe they will want more and suspect they will have to deal off the MLB roster to get there, as they did on the pitching side.
When this might happen is another question.
