One of the enduring lessons of the Randy Arozarena trade was the recognition of how frustrating and demoralizing it could be to trade away a prospect before they really got a chance to succeed. Another former Cardinal serves as instruction for the opposite end of the spectrum. Jamie Moyer didn’t emerge as an effective pitcher until age 33 but would go on to win 269 games. He got runway with the Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals and Orioles before emerging with the Mariners. I doubt any of the early teams he played for felt like they didn’t give him a chance, but 269 wins later, there is the suggestion that each missed on this player.
Between these two bookends lies the question – how long should a player get to establish themselves? When does a team know it is ready to move on and how do they come to that conclusion? Given the time-honored warning that all prospect development is non-linear, performance alone doesn’t necessarily drive this determination. I got to listen in on a fair number of conversations this spring with Oli Marmol and other Cardinal staffers. Because of the Cardinals current state of the roster, most of those conversations seemed to inevitably return to this very question. So I got quite an education on many of the factors they consider.
What are some of the factors?
- Success – while performance outcomes are not the sole determinant, they do factor. If you are succeeding, opportunities will tend to continue to come your way. I think a good example here is Gordon Graceffo. While some of his underlying metrics aren’t top-notch (his FIP 4.45 and xFIP of 5.05 and xERA of 5.10 tell us this), his nice 3.04 ERA tells us he is getting outs better than most of his fellow relievers, mostly by avoiding the HR bug and getting soft contact. So, he gets more runway.
- Underlying metrics – particularly with non-veterans, the team really looks at underlying metrics in the absence of large sample sizes of data. If they project good outcomes, a player will continue to get opportunities, although they may be a bit more scripted (as in platoon advantage for hitters, low leverage situtations for pitchers, etc.). Jimmy Crooks is a good example. That 65 wRC+ isn’t a model of performance success, particularly since it seems to be a repeat of late last year. But that .234 BABIP and average exit velo (92.0), hard hit % (48.5) and launch angle/sweet spot % (41.2) are all solidly top 20th percentile (albeit in small sample size) and are suggestive of better days ahead. On the defensive side, he is the worst blocker but the best framer on the team and the best arm at catcher. He gets more runway.
- Making of adjustments – Some of the players’ adjustments pretty much have to be made at the MLB level. Think of Jordan Walker. He wasn’t going to learn to lay off the sweepers and sliders low and out of the zone at AAA (he wasn’t going to see enough good ones). Although this is still a work in progress (as it is with almost all young hitters), he has made enough adjustments to significantly improve his outcomes. The team saw the adjustments before we saw the outcomes. So, he got more runway. Good thing, too.
- Progress – Along the lines of development being non-linear, the team looks for signs of progress. The silver lining if you will. One of Michael McGreevy’s challenges coming into 2026 was to develop effective ways to combat LH hitters. Still a work in progress, his OPS and FIP versus LHH is down considerably from last year (a sign of progress). I bet they’d like to see him improve upon that 14% k-rate against LHH, but this season has been a step in the right direction. So, he gets more runway.
- Defense – For position players, the ability to defend can contribute to the amount of runway received. Think Nathan Church. He went through a pretty tough stretch, something along the lines of o for 27. When we were getting to the later end of the streak, I wondered if someone was thinking “this can’t go on”. But it did, and the hex was broken. One of the reasons he continued to receive ample playing time? His defense is quite good, and quite a bit better than anyone else available to play CF. So, he gets runway, too.
- Opportunity – Has this player had a true opportunity? Age and sample size both matter. Consider Blaze Jordan. He is but 23 years old, young for his level. Too far away from peak performance age to write off. He has 147 PAs under his belt. Too small of a sample to draw firm conclusions. Additionally, those PAs have come sporadically as opening up development time conflicts with wanting to win. Many of his Statcast attributes (except maybe that chase and walk rate) would lean quite positive if the sample size was larger. Early results on the defensive side have been more positive than expected, and he carries a positive run value. He will get more chances.
- Alternatives – For everyone, rookie or veteran (except those on long-term, high dollar contracts), runway ends when the team thinks they have a capable replacement. Until that day, there is opportunity and seemingly endless runway. Nathan Church’s continually worsening O-swing % represents adjustment in the wrong direction and his runway could abruptly end if they decide a Baez or a Ragsdale or a Peete is ready to roll out in CF in StL as an alternative.
In general, if you look at a player and wonder why they are still getting chances, you will find your answer is the combination of the factors above.
But what happens when it seems thinks aren’t working out? Not enough performance. Underlying metrics aren’t great. Other players are emerging. The defense isn’t playable, etc. The team doesn’t want to make decisions on a player too soon (and suffer the Arozarena effect), but at what point does the assessment of these factors lead to a “it is time to move on” decision. Interesting question. Let’s consider some of the many “runway” players on the Cardinal roster right now. We are coming up on a time when the team will have to make some determinations in order to formulate their off-season strategy and continueto remold the roster toward being competitive. How might these go?
- Nolan Gorman – a player who was demoted to Memphis earlier this year, seemingly having lost his power just as Samson did when his hair got cut off. I see his power has returned recently. Does he get more runway? I’d bet yes. Opportunity knocks, in that no one else has seized the opening his absence created at third base and the general absence of power in the MLB line-up beckons. Jake Wood got into this is more detail here. The recent power surge suggests improvement have been made. He is arguably the best defensive third baseman on the roster. The factors begin to swing back his way. Should we expect to see him back soon?
- Victor Scott – another player demoted to Memphis earlier. The hit tool is his major obstacle, and improvement really hasn’t materialized in Memphis. While his defensive is sublime, the Cardinals already have a player who is close to that level and not as challenged offensively. I suspect he will have to show more offensively before he gets another run. Given the emergence of other outfielders, it seems fair to wonder IF he gets another run.
- Mathew Liberatore – late 2024 and first half of 2025 seemed to signal the emergence of a really good pitcher. Late 2025 was less sanguine, although not awful. Is it fair to suggest 2026 has been closer to disaster than anything? Libby has been either really good or really bad, and a lot more of the latter. Performance isn’t there, at least not consistently enough. Sample sizes are growing fairly large as the opportunities have been plentiful and regular. Although it is clear in pitch mix and shape that adjustments are being attempted, progress seems more fleeting and difficult to discern. There is a whole stable of young pitchers getting close to seeking runway clearance. Now that Mathews is on the 40-man roster, my sense is that the sand in Liberatore’s hourglass has been almost expended. Service time and age will conspire against him.
- Jimmy Crooks – an interesting case discussed above. Because of the looming shadows of Leo Bernal and Rainel Rodriguez, one might think that Jimmy’s window to translate underlying metrics into actual performance is narrowing.
- Ivan Herrera (as a catcher) – As a hitter, this player has established himself as a major leaguer. We saw that as much as he struggled offensively in July, he continued to play. This is because who he is as a hitter is established. No runway needed. As a catcher? Defensively, he is a cut below Crooks and Pages, in framing, blocking and throwing. Have the Cardinals seen enough to conclude he is what he is, and enough to determine if that workable behind the dish?
- Blaze Jordan – This is a player who is definitely still in the small sample size, too small to draw too many definitive conclusions. While concerning, 100-ish PAs against RHP do not demonstrate a platoon disadvantage. I am curious if he gets considerably more regular playing time as the season winds down. If not, I will be curious about why not.
- Cesar Prieto – Similar to Nathan Church, he is experiencing an arduous offensive drought. 26 PAs this year with nothing to show for it. 0 for 26 is pretty rough. Few major leaguers have started this way and go on to success. More bothersome to me is the zero walks. 0-26 is too soon to cut bait though, right?
One of the variables in prospect runways (opportunity) is the other players on the roster. There is only so much playing time to allocate. Soon, Joshua Baez, Quinn Mathews, Leo Bernal and Brycen Mautz will be deemed ready to proceed to the runway and they will get their clearance. Each is on the 40-man roster, which means sooner rather than later. While many folks look at the end of the bench guys to be cleared to make room on the MLB roster, that only creates the roster spot. In order to give these new guys a run, someone else’s runway must end and that someone is playing a lot right now. Who?
