C’mon, it was Father’s Day recently, humor me! Max Rajcic has done an admirable job coming out of the Cardinals’ bullpen in the exact role I spoke about earlier this year. I think it’s time the Cardinals elevate another young arm that’s “changing” things up on AAA hitters this year. Sorry, I seem to be in a very pun-oriented mood today.
Luis Gastelum has been awesome over the last month plus! Since May 17th, Gastelum has pitched to a 0.45 ERA and a 1.41 FIP over 20 IP in that span, with a K/BB% of 34.8%. Opponents are batting .121 against, and he’s striking out batters at a 37.7% pace in that time as well. So, whats giving him all this success?
Remember that changeup I alluded to earlier? It’s a true plus-plus offering. He uses it almost 39% of the time and generates a staggering 45.2 Whiff% on the pitch. Opponents have an xBA of .129 and an xSLG of .145! But that’s not all!
Gasetlum also features a 4SFB, Slider, and Sinker that rate out as 100 or better according to stuff+ models.
I think Gastelum could have a profile similar to long-time reliever Tommy Kahnle. Remember in the playoffs when he threw like 45 straight changeups, and nobody could hit it? That’s a similar impact type reliever capable of pitching in high leverage situations, posting a 90.9 LOB% in his last 20 IP, for example.
The one unanswered question seems to be how he would find himself in the big leagues. First, they would have to clear a 40-man spot for his contract to be selected. Then you start to ask, whose spot would he take? Gordon Graceffo has done a solid job this season, and while the underlying data is scary, the surface-level performance is what matters in the here and now, so he probably wouldnt be a candidate without a few consecutive blow-ups. Matt Svanson could be another option. While he has been better as of late, he still hasn’t been the same guy he was a year ago, and that 9th inning against the Diamondbacks was yet another reminder that pitchers who regularly don’t miss bats are subject to weird, fluky snowball innings.
The other might be Max Rajcic himself. His spot in the bullpen, specifically, not his performance, dictates that a demotion is necessary. Rajcic has been solid and a certain upgrade from the Chris Roycroft experience. You can see the bulldog attitude he brings to the mound, and he shows no fear against any batter who steps in the box. His command has been a little shaky at times, but for a young guy trying to establish himself in the big leagues, that’s not all that uncommon. When he’s in sync with his mechanics, the mid-90s fastball plays, and so does the big hammer curveball. There’s certainly still a long runway left with his opportunity to show what he can do.
The most likely outcome, barring injury, would seem to be a trade of a current veteran bullpen arm, and I don’t see that taking place any time soon, for someone like Ryne Stanek, for example. It can still happen at any time, but we just spoke with Chaim Bloom a couple of days ago, and the way he described the industry and its focus is on the amateur draft side of things in the immediate future, and once that and the All-Star break conclude then we should start to hear chatter on such topics start to pick up before the inevitable deals begin to trickle in up to the August 3rd deadline.
We may have to wait a little while longer to see Gastelum, with a lack of immediate openings or opportunities, but make no mistake about it, he’s proven he’s ready for the next level, and it’s just a matter of opportunity opening up for him to seize it, and Cardinals fans will enjoy it when that time comes.
-Thanks for reading
