Do you know what’s really nice about this season and in particular, the position the Cardinals have put themselves in? It’s June 25th and we have over a month until the Cardinals have to make a decision on what to do at the trading deadline. One could argue, and I think I would argue, that the results over the next month and change have no downside. Think about it.
What if the Cardinals suck for the next 30 games? Cool. Selling just got super easy. Everything we assumed would happen this season at the deadline will happen. That’s our downside. That the trade deadline will work exactly as we just assumed it would work at the beginning of the season – and in April too, because I doubt many bought the good start then. Everything is still going according to plan. A lot of the individual performances have gone better than expected and that will probably remain true in a month still.
What if the Cardinals are still in a wild card spot? Cool. Great problem to have. The Cardinals have a tough decision, we as fans do not. The team as currently constructed can still sneak into the wild card if they sell, because it is too easy to make the playoffs nowadays – which is not me saying it is easy to make the playoffs, I’m saying it should be harder. Yes, I am a less playoff teams is the way truther. But if they don’t sell, well they got that far with this current team, there’s no reason they can’t keep it up for another couple months. Maybe they even soft buy for fan engagement reasons. Even better!
And yet, Cardinals fandom at large does not seem to be reacting as if this is the case. Most fans, or more accurately I’m sure the most vocal ones, are treating wins and losses as if this was a team projected for 1st in the NL Central to begin this season. It’s been an interesting development. But yeah I just think we should be treating this like the no lose situation it is, because the worst case scenario… is basically the original plan. You can’t say that very often. That’s the fun of a rebuild season, wins are almost gravy.
I am okay with the idea of both buying and selling at the deadline. Obviously under this scenario, you’re not buying anything impactful, because frankly selling makes no sense if you trade any legitimate pieces to acquire an upgrade. Unless it’s a player for more than just this year. But you can acquire a minor upgrade for an extraneous piece. Think something similar to the Luke Voit for Giovanny Gallegos and Chasen Shreve trade.
The Cardinals have players equivalent or close enough to Voit – at least at the value he had when he was traded – in spades: Bryan Torres is a pretty good parallel honestly, because he has a good projection and strangely, no real route to playing time here. Jose Fermin already waited three years for his shot, and they’re effectively the same player. One happens to be right-handed and has a much easier route to playing time. If not him, you still have Cesar Prieto, maybe somebody believes in Thomas Saggese, who is still just 24-years-old. There’s room for maybe two of these guys, and if you can get a bullpen arm for one of them, that’s a win-win.
One thing I think I can’t quite get behind is trading Lars Nootbaar if you’re trying to have your cake and eat it too. Like obviously, trade Nootbaar if we’re completely selling. Don’t trade Nootbaar if we’re going for a playoff spot. But if we’re doing the soft buy and sell thing….. I don’t think you can trade Nootbaar either. That seems like a true sell move to me. I understand the logic. Joshua Baez will replace Nootbaar.
I think a smart planning team would expect Baez to struggle. Maybe that’s just me personally. That’s not me saying he will automatically struggle. But if I have any intention of making the playoffs, I’m not assuming we see no drop-off from Nootbaar to Baez. I assuming the opposite. I’m assuming we’re getting Masyn Winn in 2023. Well maybe not that bad, but you get the idea. I am assuming that going from Nootbaar to Baez will be a rather huge drop-off for this year specifically.
Part of it is the type of hitter Baez is. He has been improving in the strikeout department and I expect that to continue, but I also think someone who strikes out 30% of the time for two months in AAA is probably going to strike out more than that in their first attempt at the majors. I just think that would be a smart assumption. And maybe he has the power to overcome that, but maybe it looks something like Nolan Gorman. Again, I am speaking purely of 2026, not his future.
I will also say it would be kind of clever of the Cardinals to do that, because I think it would be accepted by the fans. I think fans are truly bought into Baez being good immediately, and even if he’s not, I don’t think Chaim Bloom will get any shade for it. It’s a good sell move without seeming like a sell move. That’s half the battle with selling when in a playoff position. I personally think it would decrease the Cardinals’ playoff chances, but I don’t think most fans would think that way.
This is a much easier argument to make right now, when Nootbaar has a very good hitting line. I think if you assume he’s a career 111 wRC+ hitter, I’d get a lot more pushback on this one. I’ll be honest: I’m very doubtful Baez would be a good hitter this season after looking at the history of 30% K rate guys. It was pretty consistent and yes I know most of them weren’t highly regarded prospects and yes there wasn’t a directly comparable player to Baez, but I think it properly scared me about him this season. Even Joey Gallo wasn’t immediately a good hitter.
Again, to be extremely clear, I am supportive and fine with Baez being in the majors to end this year. Ideally he gets the Masyn Winn treatment, we get 45 days of him, the Cardinals may get a draft pick for him next season. But if I do that, I am not expecting the playoffs. That, to me, is a sign that the Cardinals are sticking to the rebuilding plan. I don’t believe it’s a have your cake and eat it too situation. I really don’t.
Nelson Velazquez
Something I did not expect with the Nelson Velasquez experience is probably the fact that he is completely unplayable in the outfield. Yeah I didn’t think it was going to be this bad. I am honestly a lot more pessimistic about his future role on this team because of his defense. Simply, because most of the time, the Cards can’t really put him at DH. Unless Ivan Herrera starts learning a new position, that DH spot is covered most games.
But he is a truly horrendous fielder. He has been replacement level this season. Think about the fact that he has a 139 wRC+ right now. His defense has been so costly that Fangraphs has him as a replacement player. Now, to be fair, he won’t be this bad defensively over a full season mostly because I don’t think it’s possible, but also he won’t have this good of a hitting line either.
Obviously, the small sample of 224 career innings at LF producing a -5 OAA is beyond unplayable, but that’s also not completely fair. So I will be as fair as possible. He was for some reason put in 225 innings at CF by the Cubs, which was predictably disastrous. He was worth -4 OAA in 225 career innings. He was also worth -1 OAA in RF in 448 career innings. So using some positional adjustment for the CF numbers, his current performance suggests he is a -12 OAA corner outfielder over a full season. That’s Jose Martinez territory.
And frankly, if he’s below average in RF but there’s something about LF specifically that makes him a truly bad fielder, the numbers would be worse than that. And since Jordan Walker isn’t going anywhere, we won’t find out if he’s playable in RF. Something worth chronicling, because it just gives him a very high bar for how good he has to hit. Which granted, is also true of DH, but not quite the same thing. Because you aren’t actually costing your team as a DH if you have an above average bat, you are in the field.
