I had been thinking of this idea prior to his article, but when ORSTLcardsfan looked at the hole in the development pipeline this past weekend, I realized I approach pitchers in the farm system differently than position players. With pitchers, it’s a famous saying, but that doesn’t make it not true: you can never have enough pitchers. Injuries, underperformance, moving to the bullpen, sudden drop in velocity – it’s so unpredictable. I don’t think the Cardinals have solved pitcher injuries unfortunately and there will be some years where they’ll need 12 starters in a season. And I don’t mean like 12 guys make a start and 4 of them because of a doubleheader or you want an extra day of rest – no like you’re down to the 12th man on the depth chart.
Position players tend to be more predictable. They’ll still get injured, they’ll still have down years, but it’s not the same. You don’t really need to be that deep. The ideal situation is you have a legitimate starting caliber player at each position and a legitimate prospect ready to step in if someone gets injured, but that’s not feasible at every position. And actually, the next best thing is pretty damn close to what the Cardinals have: a few utility guys willing to play everywhere. Thomas Saggese has struggled, but Bryan Torres and Jose Fermin are great backup options when the starters can’t play.
So when I look at position players when it comes to the farm system, I tend to look more at what will be needed than the strength of the system itself. The holes or the impending free agents the Cardinals do have – does the farm system have someone ready to replace them? For example, if the Cardinals had a hole at catcher – and you know it’s theoretical when that’s my go-to-position – they had an outfielder headed for free agency, and a 2B a year behind that outfielder – the farm system should have close-to-MLB ready prospects at catcher, outfielder, and 2B. If that is literally all the farm system has, I don’t care – the farm system is perfect for what is needed.
That’s kind of what I want to do with this article. Look at the strength positionally of the Cardinals system. I will do this by assigning each player based upon their future with this club: Now and the Future, He’ll Do Just Fine, Stopgap, and Replace ASAP. I’m going to break the true meaning of Stopgap. The basic idea is this player is here until we find a better option. Or in some cases, because this player is about to hit free agency. Basically, it means “This position should replaced, but it’s not first priority.” Or this player has to be resigned soon. Now and the Future and Replace ASAP are what they sound like. He’ll Do Just Fine is “this player isn’t a problem or the problem and we’re not going to worry about replacing them, but if a situation arises to improve upon that player, we’ll take it.”
Catcher
Now and the Future
Ivan Herrera, Jimmy Crooks, Leo Bernal, Rainiel Rodriguez
I did not know if I should put Herrera in this section. He is a catcher and he is probably a part of the Cardinals’ future so I couldn’t not put him here, but also he still hasn’t thrown a runner out this season and look at what’s behind him. Positionally, I consider it tenuous, but the player himself is not if that makes sense. The other three, even though Crooks is up right now, are more speculative, but right now the outlook is future starter. Someone will have to be traded eventually, but there’s no reason for urgency.
He’ll Do Just Fine
Pedro Pages
Hot take maybe. In a different organization, I think Pages would be a fan favorite. I don’t think anyone would enjoy his hitting, to be fair, but Tony Cruz managed to not be hated backing up Yadier Molina and he was a way worse player than Pages. Pages has actually been worth 0.6 fWAR this season. That’s better than last season’s pace despite a worse hitting line. He just happens to be in an organization with higher potential catchers knocking at his door.
Stopgap
Ryan Campos, Josh Kross, Sammy Hernandez
It’s not hard to see these guys making the major leagues one day, it is however very hard for me to imagine them being the kind of player you want starting. At 5’8, it doesn’t seem like Campos has any power potential, which would limit his ceiling. Kross doesn’t have the defensive chops to stick. Hernandez is off to a very good start in Peoria, but he has similar size/power concerns to Campos.
Replace ASAP
Yohel Pozo
He’s certainly a fun player, but he’s never actually been a good hitter despite his ability to make contact
Conclusion
Doesn’t really matter how this ends up shaking out, the Cardinals don’t need to worry about catcher. The difficult task ahead: maximize this group for the best of the team. Figure out who to trade, and who to hold onto, and if the Cardinals really nail that, the Cardinals will be a playoff caliber team for years.
A+
First Base
Now and the Future
Nobody
He’ll Do Just Fine
Alec Burleson
He’s a super borderline Now and the Future guy, so I don’t object if you have him there. For me, it comes down to: if Ivan Herrera needs to move to 1B, they’re trading Burleson not Herrera. That’s my personal opinion. Herrera has more more year of control, is younger, and is the better projected hitter. I don’t have any real concerns about him there defensively, despite what Moneyball says, moving from catcher to 1B is not that hard.
Stopgap
Blaze Jordan, Jack Gurevitch, Deniel Ortiz
If someone is in this category, and they’re a prospect, this is just how I view them. I think the Cardinals would trade Burleson for Herrera to play 1B. They wouldn’t for Blaze Jordan. I firmly believe that. They actually complement each other, so it’s not necessary. But that’s another tough part for Blaze: he’s right-handed. Burleson gets the platoon advantage in roughly 75% of his plate appearances. It’s the opposite for Blaze, which is why non-elite right-handed 1B prospects are tough to bet on.
Replace ASAP
Nobody
Conclusion
First base is in a pretty good spot. They have a solid starter, pretty good hitter there already. They have him under team control for two more seasons after this one. They have two decent prospects behind him, one of which can platoon with him while we figure out if he can be more than that. And if Gurevitch’s power turns out for real, he’ll be ready around the time Burleson will hit free agency. (It’s a B+ because of Herrera and yes I know there are no plans for him to move to 1B)
B+
Second Base
Future and Now
JJ Wetherholt
Forget extension talk. Wetherholt is here for five more seasons no matter what. Whether he’s a lifetime Cardinal or not, Wetherholt is in the plans for as long as it’s smart to map out your future plans. Beyond five years is past that point. You’re just not going to know who your future 2B is in 2034, and you maybe shouldn’t. So much can change.
He’ll Do Just Fine
Jesus Baez
I ranked Baez my 11th ranked prospect for this season and despite the slow start, I’m still in on Baez. His season wRC+ is up to a 90 wRC+ and that’s with a .245 BABIP and yes I know to some extent that’s deserved, but he’s also only 21-years-old in High A. I don’t think he’s a star in the making and I certainly wouldn’t project that, but I do consider him a good enough prospect for this category.
Stopgaps
Thomas Saggese, Jose Fermin, Bryan Torres, Ramon Mendoza, Jonathan Mejia
A good way to think about this particular group is that they might start on a true rebuilding team, but ideally they are very good bench players instead. It does not really feel like they could be a starter for 150 games and come out looking like someone you don’t want to replace. Saggese doesn’t make enough contact and Fermin doesn’t hit the ball hard enough. Mendoza feels very much in this mold to me. Mejia actually has more potential, but because he’s more boom or bust, you go in between.
Replace ASAP
Cesar Prieto
I really just don’t know how he’s hung around on the 40 man roster for this long.
Conclusion
Wetherholt makes 2B depth completely unnecessary, and yet the Cardinals have a good number of “in case of emergency” options that will certainly be respectable. That is literally all this position needs.
A+
Third Base
Now and the Future
Nobody
He’ll Do Just Fine
Jesus Baez
Baez, according to MLB Pipeline, has a 60 grade arm, so he certainly counts as 3B depth if he counts as 2B depth.
Stopgap
Ramon Urias, Jose Fermin, Deniel Ortiz
I don’t know what Deniel Ortiz’s defense is. He’s played more 1B than 3B and that is usually not a very good sign. If he was a definite 3B prospect, he’d be up a level. Put him in this category for 1B as well just because so much more is required of his bat if he has to play 1B. Urias is a stopgap in the most literal definition of the term as it is used in baseball and Fermin is a fine choice for the interim 3B. Also Torres isn’t here because I don’t think he has the arm for 3B unfortunately.
Replace ASAP
Nolan Gorman
Okay, so the category is a bit misleading, because I do think they should keep giving Gorman PAs, because the power potential is so great that he may hit 5 HRs in a week at some point. But it’s just kind of hard to imagine not moving on from Gorman after this season.
Conclusion
Don’t love that between 3B and 2B (and SS), the Cardinals have literally one “He’ll Do Just Fine.” That’s putting a lot of your eggs in a prospect that isn’t especially highly ranked. Bad at the MLB level, not great depth behind him. Wild card is Rainiel Rodriguez, which is all speculation on my part, but there is literally no other position he could move to with his height/speed. I just don’t think he’s tall enough for 1B and he’s too slow for outfield.
D
Shortstop
Now and the future
Masyn Winn
I know there are a lot of people down on Masyn Winn’s bat. I get it. He’s also still just 24-years-old and there’s a long history of defensive-oriented players finding their bat years into their career. Ozzie Smith wasn’t an above average hitter until his 8th season. And Winn doesn’t have as far to go as Smith did. He has also put together 3.5 and 3.6 fWAR seasons at ages 22 and 23. I see no reason to think the Cardinals need to look for a replacement anytime soon.
He’ll Do Just Fine
Nobody
Stopgap
Jeremy Rivas, Yairo Padilla
Okay so this is clearly where the term stopgap is most inadequate. Padilla’s potential is far greater than this, he’s just so far away and not even a sure thing to stick at SS. He hasn’t even played in A ball yet. Rivas is a defense-first, second, third and hope he slaps a single sometimes SS prospect. He has made strides on his power and he’s now in Memphis, but his greatest hope is to become Adam Everett in the modern age.
Replace ASAP
Nobody
Conclusion
The wild card here is that JJ Weterholt can probably slip over to SS if need be. The Cardinals seem incredibly reluctant to do so, but I wonder if that’s just a rookie year thing. The Cardinals unwillingness to put Wetherholt at SS even for a second gives me doubt we can consider him SS depth. Their MLB SS depth is essentially Jedd Gyorko playing SS back in the day, which is to say they have zero. Especially so if Wetherholt isn’t going to be considered.
B
Outfield
Now and the Future
Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez
A bit of an aggressive placement for Baez admittedly. And I think Baez will probably initially struggle when promoted to the big leagues. But I think he’ll figure it out. So long as he keeps his K rate reasonable and his defense comes out positive, I’m pretty optimistic.
He’ll Do Just Fine
Lars Nootbaar, Tai Peete
Nootbaar would be in the above section if he had more years of team control. The fact that everyone thinks he’s getting traded prevents that. Him having one more year of team control after this one prevents him from being a stopgap. If the Cardinals are not selling at the deadline, they’ll keep Nootbaar because there won’t be three better options. And the same applies if they go into next season with Nootbaar still on the team. Peete is almost certainly too boom/bust to be here, but he feels like too good of a prospect for stopgap.
Stopgap
Nathan Church, Victor Scott, Nelson Velazquez, Bryan Torres
There’s a lot of outfielders, so let’s do an MLB version and a minor league version for this category. I’m not comfortable putting Church in the above category, at least not yet, because it’s not really supported by his MLB numbers, his projection or how he was valued as a prospect. Like I can’t make the case except for “just trust me.” As much as Burleson was a borderline Now and Future, Church is a VERY borderline “He’ll Do Just Fine” and Stopgap. I believe Scott underperformed his true defensive capability and that his bat was very slowly rising to what he did last year, but too little, too late and he’s headed for Memphis.
Prospect Stopgap
Colton Ledbetter, Chase Davis, Zach Levenson, Travis Honeyman, Won-Bin Cho, Ryan Mitchell
Mitchell is too far away and way too reluctant to swing to be higher. Honeyman has no power. Davis’ defense at CF is too much of unknown with how unreliable his bat has been thus far. If you could pencil in elite defense, I think I’d put him a level higher. Ledbetter has been terrible in AAA. Levenson has been bad in AA. There are other outfield prospects in this category, but I didn’t want to list them all.
Replace ASAP
Nobody
(I know you want Victor Scott here and they literally did, but he at least has a role as a bench player and I’m not putting bench players here)
Conclusion: There’s just not enough sure things here, especially if Nootbaar gets traded. This would be pretty good depth if the Cardinals had more than just Jordan Walker being a future piece. I know I listed Baez there too, but he might not be good immediately either. And I think outfield is the exception to my rule: you can never have enough outfielders either. It’s the one position that gets hurt at a high enough rate that you want good depth even if things seemed locked in. And things are very far from locked in. They aren’t in the worst spot, but not great either.
C+
Overall
The Cardinals look excellent at catcher and 2B, and I really like their 1B situation as well. A lot of my feeling towards shortstop depends on if the Cardinals are willing to play Wetherholt there ever, because if he’s the backup option to Winn, shortstop is in a great place too. They certainly have enough guys who should be decent at 2B that it would work out pretty well. If Rivas could look like more legitimate depth by the end of the year, that would also be ideal.
Outfield is the most subject to change. It has already changed. Jordan Walker wouldn’t have been Now and Future earlier. Nathan Church could establish himself in CF and Joshua Baez could impress immediately. Then the MLB part of the equation is much better, which is really my main complaint. I don’t hate the depth, just not enough surefire starters. On the prospect side, if Chase Davis sees some time in Memphis and does well enough, and Peete can play well enough to see Springfield, the outfield situation might not even look like a problem by the end of the year.
I can’t say the same thing about third base though, which is clearly the bleakest position. It really doesn’t seem like the Cardinals believe Blaze Jordan is a 3B and I don’t love the playing time assortment that Deniel Ortiz has gotten either. It’s basically “maybe Jose Fermin” and then “maybe Jesus Baez can be the future” which is just..kind of exactly reflective of a rebuilding team. Maybe this doesn’t feel like a rebuilding team, not only for the record, but because 3B is the only position that really reminds me of one.
