The Cardinals are off to a 9-5 start in the month of May, continuing their established early-season surprise. It certainly doesn’t appear as though this team is going to let this season go by without a fight, and they’ve been feeding off of the “Tarps Off” trailblazers of the Stephen F Austin Baseball club, who showed up to Busch Friday night in the most unassuming way possible and left internet sensations and rallying points for an almost equally young St. Louis team, who is the 2nd youngest in baseball at an average age of 26 years old. At an overall record of 27-18, matching last season’s high-water mark of 9 games over .500, the St. Louis lored “devil magic” appears to be alive once more.
The cliche is that the “devil is in the details.” The Cardinals are a strong fundamental team who do things that don’t show up in traditional box scores, that forces stress on the opposition. Taking extra bases, smothering defense, and manufacturing runs with quality outs. The other element of the Cardinals’ game that has given this team staying power is the continuous growth of the starting rotation.
From March 26th through April 14th, the St. Louis starting rotation ranked 25th in ERA at 4.87 and 28th in FIP at 5.01. However, Dusty Blake and the rotation deserve a ton of credit for the work they’ve put in. Since Jackie Robinson Day (April 15th), in 28 games, the Cardinals’ rotation has posted a 3.44 ERA, which is good for the 6th best in baseball. Their 4.17 FIP puts them at 13th in the league, so not exactly a fluke propped up by extreme luck. Their .287 BABIP over that time ranks 14th in the league and can sometimes indicate extreme luck, and neither underlying indicator suggests the surface-level results aren’t legitimate.
One area of subtle concern remains over the lack of slug from the Cardinals’ offense. Jordan Walker is doing a lot of the heavy lifting, and the team is receiving occasional power from Alec Burleson, but the rest of the offense is underperforming in this facet, which confirms a squad as a legit postseason hopeful contender. The Cardinals’ ISO – (Isolated Power) is a statistic that measures a hitter’s raw, in-game power by calculating how many extra bases they average per at-bat. It strips away singles to focus purely on a player’s ability to hit for extra bases (doubles, triples, and home runs)
Since May 1st, the Cardinals’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB in ISO at .123. For context, the league average is right around .140. Not terribly off pace, but still below average, and in modern baseball its far more difficult to string 3-4 hits together to score a run and sustain offense.
If I had told you that Jordan Walker would be leading the team in ISO, and by a significant margin at the end of spring training, would you have believed me? Again, referencing the .140 league average mark, during May, only Walker and Alec Burleson are providing adequate or better extra base impact. Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, Nathan Church, and JJ Wetherholt, 5 guys in your lineup that you rely on to sustain offense are not providing enough impact and putting a lot of pressure on Walker and Burleson to essentially carry this offense. Without Walker’s breakout this season, I would be loath to think about where this Cardinals offense would be.
The impending arrival of a healthy Lars Nootbaar should help the Cardinals’ offense (It’s like making a trade!), sorry. With a career .164 ISO and a more proven track record, his addition to the lineup on a nightly basis will help further legitimize the ceiling moving forward, once activated. The Cardinals also have some baby birds off to really strong offensive starts at the AAA level who, over the course of the season, could provide some punch. Blaze Jordan (.237), Jimmy Crooks (.359), Josh Baez (.254) are all having outstanding seasons when it comes to quality of contact and providing power at the AAA level; however, yes, there’s always a however, Baez and Crooks still have work to do in the quality of their AB’s and the swing and miss that would limit how often they can get to thier offensive impact at the big league level.
Blaze Jordan is the one offensive piece at AAA currently who could come up and immediately provide some needed RH punch to this offense.
Cutters/Sliders are Jordan’s primary bugaboos right now from an offensive standpoint. It’s very Jordan Walker-esque, where if he can lay off of it and force pitchers to come in the zone, then he’s a nightmare. Cesar Prieto is serving no role for this team, and clearly, Manager Oli Marmol has no faith in his ability to perform right now after a poor impression in the San Diego series. He has not appeared in the Sacramento or Kansas City series since. Blaze Jordan would at least have a path to semi-regular playing time as a DH/1B/3B on days that Herrera is catching, or a lefty is on the mound, or you just want to give Burly or Gorman a blow for a day to get them off their feet and maybe DH one of them instead. Obviously, Oli could advantageously deploy Blaze, avoiding certain matchups against pitchers with devastating sliders from the right side, also.
The Cardinals’ offense can get by in the short term with 2 primary pillars and a rotating cast of impact on any given night, but if you’re hoping for sustained offensive success, other current pieces are going to have to find another gear, and the potential for help at the upper minors exists that could provide a shot in the arm in the near future. This isn’t Chicken Little screaming the sky is falling, but merely noting a concerning trend that might hold back the 2026 club if it isn’t improved upon.
(stats courtesy of FanGraphs, and images courtesy of Fangraphs/prospectsavant)
-Thanks for reading
