It might come as a surprise, but negative run differential teams sometimes make the postseason. I am not saying that the 2026 Cardinals will finish with a minus in runs, but I’m not saying they are going to make the playoffs, either. Anyhow, I thought I might go all the way back to 1981, let’s take a journey back into time.
The 1981 Cardinals outperformed their pythagorean record (what their record should be assuming a normal balance according to run differential) by only three games. That is because of a positive run differential. But, in 1983 they also had a positive run differential and finished 4 games below .500.
In 1984, the Cardinals were 6 games above .500 but with a run differential barely above zero. They should’ve been just over .500, according to their pythagorean record. The 1986 Cardinals did the right thing and absolutely nailed their pythagorean record, finishing at 79-82 with a -10 run differential.
The 1991 Cardinals should have finished at .500 but were a few games over .500. We could talk about the 2006 Cardinals, but they had a positive run differential and barely finished over their pythagorean record. And yet somehow won the World Series, of course. It doesn’t happen often, but a +19 run team can go all the way. But could a team with a negative run differential have possibly pulled that off?
The 2007 Cardinals really paid the piper for that one, finishing with a -104 run differential. That team should’ve been much, much worse though, interestingly enough. So maybe they never paid the piper! Should’ve been 20 games under! Finished 6 games under .500! So strangely enough, that was a team that didn’t give two turds about their run differential.
The 2008 Cardinals were another team to absolutely nail their pythagorean record, just as the 1986 Cardinals did. The Cardinals finished 10 games over in 2008, winning 86 games.
In 2010, the Cardinals underperformed by quite a bit, +95, & should’ve won 91 games but won 86, ten games over just like the 2008 team.
The incredible 2011 team barely overperformed their pythagorean record but was still destined for the postseason. They did have a +70 run differential, however.
Then, something happened to the 2012 Cardinals… they had a +100 run differential, but finished 5 games lower than their pythagorean record, making a team that would seemingly be a good postseason team into a third place team.
The 2013 Cardinals scored so many runs that them underperforming their pythagorean record didn’t matter. That team should’ve won over 100 games! But 97 wins was enough. It is noted that that team didn’t fare too well in close games.
2014 Cardinals won a lot more than they should’ve. They didn’t overperform their run differential like the 2007 Cardinals did, but they were certainly another outlier finishing at 90 wins with a +11 run differential.
The 2018 squad which was lead by both Mike Matheny and Mike Shildt, is the third team that hit their pythagorean record spot on (since 1981). That team actually won 88 games! But somehow finished in 3rd place. And also the Covid shortened 2020 season would make it four.
The 2021 Cardinals were another team that really overperformed their pythagorean record, finishing at 90 wins when they had a +34 run differential. Impressive.
The 2023 Cardinals are our fifth Cardinals team since 1981 to hit their pythagorean record. This team finished 20 games below .500! Far worse than the 2007 squad.
Most fans remember the 2024 team as being a lot better than expected. This is because that team should’ve finished ten games below .500, but Oliver Marmol coaxed a winning record out of a team with a negative run differential. However, an 83 win Cardinals team usually isn’t going to make the postseason. So it’s possible for the Cardinals to have a winning season with a negative run differential, but it would take some opportune circumstances for a team of that caliber to sneak into the postseason. The are however the best example I have come across with success as a negative run differential season performance by the Cardinals.
Last year’s team won 4 more games than their pythagorean record, so maybe the Cardinals are pretty good at overperforming their run differential nowadays. They were still under .500, but what about this season?
Baseball reference has the Cardinals as a pythagorean record .500 ballclub. I’ve always thought this is about what this team would be, give or take 5 games. Fangraphs has them finishing just below .500 now. Certainly much better than the Las Vegas odds we saw at the beginning of the season. Instead, this season the team is 7 games over .500. But what’s most impressive: they are only +3 runs. And have been a minus for much of the season!
There is of course a correlation with run differential, but it’s also much more random than you might think. It’s about as effective as a weather vane. A rather general barometer for the season. But there’s a history to it, and pythagorean records have been around for a while. How meaningful it is for Cardinals fans, I must shrug it off a bit. And there have been teams with a really good run differential in the first half and not so good in the second half, barely over. All sorts of scenarios and situations.
Here is a much snarkier article about it that I ran across: https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-bauman-run-differential-far-from-perfect/c-132583912
It’s hit and miss, but not a bad indicator, really. There are more advanced predictors out there, but it sticks around. It’s fun to look at, simple. But I have to admit, teams that beat their run differential are often more interesting than teams that just crush it. How do they do it? It’s often good bullpens and defense, and we have one of those, at least! At least a good closer helps, too.
It looks like I will have to go outside the Cardinals world to find a really good negative run differential team. Do they have those?
- 1981 and 1984 Royals were both negative run differential teams that had some success
- the (expletive) 1987 Twins had a -20 run differential and, you know… sigh.
- 1997 Giants had a -7 run differential… and won 90 games! but ended up being swept by the Marlins in the NLDS. This particular team was driven by a 11-3 extra innings record resulting from an offense that lead the league in late and close situations. Clearly one of those “devil magic” Giants teams.
- the 2005 Padres were some sort of unbelievable… they won their division only 2 games over .500 and scored -42 runs… the Cardinals swept them in the NLDS!
- 2007 Diamondbacks were a -20 run differential squad that somehow won 90 games, swept the Cubs, then got swept by the Rockies in the NLCS
- 2023 Diamondbacks made it all the way to the World Series with a -15 run differential, but lost
- the phenomenon might actually be happening more often, and more egregiously than ever… the 2023 Marlins finished with a -57 run differential, 6 games over .500 and good enough for a wild card
- last year’s Guardians had a negative run differential and won the AL Central with 88 wins
What did I learn? Successful teams with a negative run differential are rare. They often come from the NL West. The 2007 Cardinals weren’t as bad as I remember. And only two teams have made it to the World Series with a negative run differential in modern times… of course the Cardinals had to lose the championship to one of those two teams. So yeah, the only team to ever win the World Series with a negative run differential beat us.
Music section will be back next week, 1990 was a monster year! And I didn’t have as much time to research this week, being out of town then starting a new job.
Ok, last minute change of subject, where does our pitching stand? Our three best pitchers by BB/9 are Riley O’Brien, Michael McGreevy, and Dustin May. I think those guys will be all right. I would like to see Liberatore, Leahy, Pallante, and Graceffo improve their control. The problem is a big one though: Soriano, Svanson, Bruihl, and Stanek are all walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. That’s bad. Bruihl and Stanek in particular need to control their stuff, although Stanek can get away with it more than Bruihl with his 12 K/9.
I think I trust in Michael McGreevy more than any of our starting rotation, even though I’m a big fan of Dustin May, I just think McG is going to be the most reliable guy out there. I like that he has his walks under control. I like his xFIP. The xERA is worrisome but, whatever, I gotta trust somebody in the rotation. Maybe I’ll trust May more if he strikes out more batters.
Liberatore on the mound tonight, we will have to wait until 8:40 at night again. JT Ginn takes the rubber for the Athletics. Fangraphs gives a 41.7% chance of winning to the Cardinals. We’ll take it. I think I don’t mind Liberatore in this particular matchup, especially if he pitches like he has in the month of May as opposed to how he pitched in April.
