I made myself wait 24 hours to write this so I’m not sharing something that’s a result of the disappointment of Sunday’s heartbreaking loss in San Diego. I’m satisfied that it’s the perfect time to get myself mentally prepared for what the rest of this St. Louis Cardinals season will likely become. Is this team really gonna be a contender or pretenders? I think it’s time to refocus on what this season really needs to be.
First, a quick refresher on something I shared right before the season started. It was February 11, 2026 when I shared the reasons why I was unrealistically optimistic about the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals season. I stand by my predictions then that this year’s Cardinals team would be better than most of the preseason predictors said they would be. One and a half months into the campaign, this team has overachieved and has proven my faith in them warranted. However, I have been watching the first 40 games with my heart more than I have with my head and the latter is tapping me on the shoulder about the big picture of what this season needs to be and what it likely won’t be. I asked this question in The Feed and it seems like a majority are of the same opinion as I am. This is a team of happy pretenders.
I want to be clear that I’m not waiving the white flag of surrender or conceding anything. I still think it’s within the realm of possibility that the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals team massively overachieves and makes the playoffs. However, it’s time that I whoa myself up and stop focusing on that chance. My instinct watching the first couple months of the season is to scream “go get some bullpen help, Chaim!”. That might still happen to some degree, but I think there is zero chance that the Cardinals front office suddenly goes all in to get the pieces we need to be a serious competitor, nor should they.
Here’s what I’m telling myself. The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen is simply not within striking distance of being fixed this year. Last time I looked at the numbers, the Cardinals arms strikeout rates and pitch-to-contact rates are near the cellar among all Major League teams. Riley O’Brien has been a big bright spot (not including what happened Sunday afternoon), but the rest of the bullpen has been inconsistent and I hold my breath anytime we’re entering the final 3 innings of the game with a small lead. We’re not one or two arms away from having a playoff-worthy bullpen.
I will add that I do think and hope that President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom will trade from our incredible minor league catching depth to improve our roster, but I highly doubt you’re going to see him do something that is designed for 2026 and not future seasons.
The Cardinals starting staff is also full of bright spots and disappointments. Michael McGreevy is starting to look like the ace of the staff while Matthew Liberatore has been disappointing. Dustin May got off to a rough start, but has become more like the Dustin May when he was a Dodger. Kyle Leahy has shown promise pitching above league average and Andre Pallante has had his typical high groundball rate, but low strikeout rate results.
There’s nothing negative that I can say about the St. Louis Cardinals offense other than I question if the current pace is sustainable. I said before the season that the Cardinals would be a much more dangerous team than expected if Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman performed up to potential. We’ve seen Jordan break out, but Gorman remains a low .200’s hitter that isn’t that different than the Nolan Gorman of previous years other than he is making more contact. JJ Wetherholt has been a stellar leadoff hitter with excellent on-base results with some power, but his average is sub-par, too. Overall, the St. Louis Cardinals bats are to be applauded so far. Top 10 in MLB in runs scored. Tied for 6th in home runs hit. Ranked 8th in OPS among all teams. What’s not to love? A little pessimistic voice inside me is whispering that it will be hard to expect them to remain on the current pace.
I have been reminded by many that last year’s disappointing St. Louis Cardinals team was 8 games above .500 going into the all-star break and that’s a valid point to remember. History tells us that team faded massively, but this year’s Cardinals club has a much better personality than that one. They’re young, aggressive and relentless and I fully expect they will continue to play better-than-average baseball. I predicted a winning record just above .500 before the season started and I stand by that prediction. However, I don’t see how we suddenly obtain enough pitching (starting and relief help are needed) to be a real playoff contender. I’m telling myself to reel in my expectations and enjoy the positive stuff we’ve seen happen during this rebuilding season. JJ Wetherholt is having a great rookie season. Jordan Walker has become the Jordan Walker we always hoped he could be. Michael McGreevy has gone next level. If the St. Louis Cardinals shock the baseball world and become a real playoff contender, I’ll be thrilled to be wrong. I just think it’s best to get ready for what the 2026 season will most likely become which is a Cardinals team winning more than expected, but still with eyes toward building a perennial contender for the future and not necessarily this season.
