Just as we all predicted, the Cardinals are off to a solid start to the 2026 season with an offense led by Jordan Walker. Going into Friday night’s game, Walker is top ten in the MLB in WAR, sports a 192 wRC+, is second in baseball in isolated slugging, and has somehow upstaged JJ Wetherholt as the most exciting Cardinal to follow for the first two weeks of the season. I, along with the majority of the fanbase, was prepared for another excruciating season of Walker runway. Over the offseason, my conspiracy theory was that the Cardinals didn’t really believe in Walker either and would trade him or send him to the minors after a couple months of putrid play.
Walker has done everything humanly possible to completely reverse the narrative in the first 12 games of the season. Beyond the excellent offense, he has shown off his incredible arm and added value in the field and on the bases. The natural question that most of Cardinals Nation is debating is whether or not this new and improved Jordan Walker is here to stay. If I were a bit wiser and less prone to overreaction, I would say to just enjoy the ride and try not to overanalyze a 12-game sample size. Alas, I am not wise and one of my favorite activities is overreacting, so I must forge ahead into the abyss in search of a star right fielder.
Has Jordan Walker Broken Out?
The first thing to note is that this type of stretch is not unprecedented for Walker. Here is a look at his rolling 12-game average wRC+ since he debuted in 2023.
He has not reached these heights since his rookie season when he had better 12-game stretches in both June and September. It feels like it has been forever since we have had a Walker hot streak to analyze, but I remember always feeling like even the good runs were a bit of a mirage driven by scorched ground balls and batted ball luck.
In the table above, you can see that both 2023 stretches were far more reliant on higher contact rates and elevated BABIPs. During the September 2023 stretch, his exit velocity of 87.7 MPH was actually below league average. The thing all three stretches have in common is the lowered chase rate around 28%, which is right around league average. Walker’s career chase rate is 33.2%, which places him in the bottom 20% in baseball.
It isn’t fair to say that the two 2023 stretches were just batted ball luck, as Walker did pop four home runs in each. However, the metric that jumps off the page in this 2026 stretch is the 26.7% barrel rate. To quote from the Statcast Glossary:
To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.
To illustrate this graphically:
I bring up Barrels because this metric gets at the real root of Walker’s struggles, the fact that he has not been able to get the ball off the ground and take advantage of his prodigious bat speed and exit velocity numbers. In order to barrel a baseball, you must not only hit it hard, but hit it at an optimal angle. Walker’s career Barrel% of 9.8% is just a touch above league average. His 26.7% barrel rate thus far in 2026 ranks third in baseball behind Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani (both at 27.3%).
Walker has hit 30 balls in play this year, 8 of which were barrels. Looking at the rolling average over the course of his career, you can see in the numbers what is obvious in watching him hit this year, he is finally scorching the ball in the air.
Now the million-dollar question: is this sustainable? I will go out on a limb and say no… No player has ever maintained a Barrel% above 27% for a full season since tracking started in 2015. Aaron Judge holds the top four individual seasons with percentages between 24.7% and 26.9% of balls in play. However, given that Walker is in pretty rarefied air, I wanted to see how this 30-batted-ball sample size stacked up across a wider range of players. I looked at every player who had at least 30 balls hit in play in 2025 and calculated the rolling average of each to see how often players were able to maintain this kind of a rate. Here is the data:
1,100 plate appearances occurred in 2025 in which the batter had a 27% Barrel% over their previous 30 balls in play. While this puts Walker in the 99th percentile, it is far from an unprecedented run for a stretch this short. 96 players in total were able to eclipse the 27% threshold for a stretch of 30 balls in play at some point last year. The majority of the total plate appearances belong to the best hitters in the game, but there were plenty of below-average hitters able to peak at this level. The sample size of players able to crest 40% is much smaller and almost exclusively elite.
Nick Kurtz was the one player to get to a 47% rate over his absurd July run last season.
So, how long would Walker have to keep up his newfound proclivity for finding the barrel for us to get truly giddy with excitement? Another 20 balls hammered at his current rate would reduce the cohort from 96 down to 19 of the (mostly) best hitters in baseball. One hundred balls in play at this level pretty much cements you as a top hitter in baseball, or Oneil Cruz.
Barrels Conclusion
Walker has improved, but we will know WAY more in just another 20 or 30 games. So, if Walker does keep barreling his way into the summer, do we have an MVP candidate on our hands? Probably not, but certainly not before we address the 7-foot-tall elephant in the room…
Oneil Cruz being included in this group of elite hitters is the perfect example of how things could still go wrong, even if they go mostly right. He has struggled with the same combination of low contact and high chase rates that have plagued Walker. Despite barreling the ball at an elite level, his contact problems have kept him as a roughly league-average hitter. Now, Cruz is still a good player and if Walker’s defense keeps improving, he could be valuable even as more of a 100 wRC+ player, but the Cardinals keep giving him chances because of his ceiling as a true middle-of-the-order bat.
Comparing Walker and Cruz to the Judge, Ohtani, Schwarber, Stanton, and Raleigh group further illustrates the importance of plate discipline. The below table includes the career contact and chase rates for these players.
Not only is Walker’s contact rate exactly in line with the average of the power-hitting group, he actually has the best zone-contact%. The root of strikeout problems is not in his raw ability to make contact, but in his lack of discretion on when to swing. Looking at the same 12-game rolling average for chase rate, Walker has been near a career low in this metric as well.
Coming into the season, it seemed impossible that Walker would simultaneously start lifting the ball while reducing his chase rate, but that is exactly what he has done so far. Hopefully, as he gains confidence, he will become even more patient and wait for his pitch to drive. He hasn’t proved anything yet, and he still has some work to do on his plate discipline, but Walker has reminded us all why he was once the future of the franchise.
