With the season in its infancy and without enough data to grapple with yet, I’m going to look forward for a bit. Forward to the end of 2026. I’m not a good predictor, so I won’t go there, but I have formulated an outline of what I think success might be for the 2026 Cardinal edition. What might success look like? I mean, baseball is about hope, right?
By now, I’m sure you have read the various prognostications about how the Cardinals will fare in 2026. At the low-end, some folks see team with 90 or more losses. The high side, led by Dr. Howl, seems to be around 85 wins. That is some range.
But who really knows? I can imagine this season being a tale of two (or even three) different seasons and how they add up to a final win-loss tally is anyone’s guess. My interest is … within that wide range, what constitutes success?
Key questions
What does it have to look like for this team to finish at the higher end of the projections?
- Could we see Dustin May pitching like a dominant TOR pitcher?
- Will we see a full season from Mathew Liberatore more like the first-half of 2025
- Could a full season of Michael McGreevy be worth double what last year’s half-season churned out?
- Could Masyn Winn prove that last year’s defensive gem of a season was not a high side outlier, and maybe add a tick to his offensive output and cross 4 fWAR?
- Will Alec Burleson continue his steady offensive climb and perhaps find a stable defensive platform now that he is playing one position?
- Could JJ Wetherholt effectively replace Donovan’s 2.9 WAR at second?
- Can Ivan Herrera be healthy and extend his .837 OPS hitting?
- Can the rest of the rotation provide reliable quality day-in and day-out?
- Can the bullpen lock down the leads that are present?
- Will any of Scott II, Gorman, or Walker establish themselves as a line-up presence?
- Will Nootbaar come back hale and hearty? An OBP machine with a bit of pop?
- Is there enough depth at AAA to fill the inevitable holes created by injury and non-performance?
I think one could look individually at each of the questions and think that a YES answer to any one of them is entirely possible. Not guaranteed, maybe not even most likely, but within a reasonable range where YES wouldn’t be a huge surprise. All of them becoming YES is a bit of a stretch, though.
Timing is everything
The definition of the season could well come down to how many of these answers become YES, and how soon. The how soon part could help begin to define several distinct sections of the season.
- Might we see a hale and healthy Nootbaar in late April/early May, or will it drag on until the ASB?
- Could it take several different iterations of the rotation to find the right combination of starters? How long will it take to swap out a struggling starter?
- How long will it take for Wetherholt to adjust to the league, and them to him?
- How long might it take to find the right bullpen combinations and roles?
- Will the AAA depth be ready to ascend when needs arise?
- What happens at the trade deadline with Noot, Romero, May and perhaps one or two others?
- How long will Gorman or Walker get runway if they continue to struggle?
A tale of two (or even three) seasons
April-May … A lot of teams take the approach of coming out of Spring TrBaining with their roster and giving it until Flag Day to assess what they have and adjust. I could see a lot of mixing and matching line-ups, movement of pitchers up and down to Memphis and such during this early phase. Not sure they will wait til Flag Day, either.
June-July … Here is where I’d anticipate an influx of prospects to fill holes. Baez, Mathews, Dobbins, Fitts, Crooks. The past few years, this is where things have fallen apart, as the injury toll has exposed a lack of depth. Is this year different in that way?
August-September … I can imagine this part of the season being defined by what happens at the trade deadline. If the club moves Nootbaar, Romero, May and others, the last two months will become a tryout for the second tier depth, particularly the many pitchers behind Dobbins and Fitts.
The pathway via Starz
It seems to me like success will come (or not) based on how effective the rotation is day-in, day-out. There is enough talent there where I could see a more stable output than we’ve seen in years. I don’t know enough to project any individual’s success or failure, but it is easy to see that there are alternatives available if someone gets hurt or struggles (Fitts, Dobbins and Mathews being the first wave). In that sense, the manager won’t have to stick with a seriously struggling starter as long as in years past. Depth matters. In the end, if I apply the Starz model published late last year, success will be if they find 4 pitchers who can reliably project to > 1.8 fWAR in the rotation and two of those who can reliable project to more than 2.5 fWAR, and still retain some depth. Can you see this possibility by 2026 season’s end?
Perhaps an under-stated element will be how stable the defense becomes. Given that the offense is unlikely to be a juggernaut, defense seems to be a key for leveraging the pitching. Can a guy like Church provide enough offense to allow frequent deployment in the outfield? Can Wetherholt lock down second base defensively, giving the Cardinals the proverbial “strong up the middle” backbone? Can Saggese become a plus defender somewhere?
A third part could be the baserunning. Can Church and Scott II get on base enough to utilize their speed effectively? Can guys like Church, Saggese, Wetherholt infuse enough speed and athleticism to materially improve the team BsR and allow for the manufacture of more runs? I will miss Arenado and Contreras, but let’s face it, they weren’t great baserunners. Along with Pages and Burleson, there was a tendency for the bases to get clogged and a power deficient team became station-to-station, which is not a great combination. There is opportunity here with the new people.
It is difficult to look at this offense and imagine it being part of the pathway to success. Herrera, Wetherholt, Winn, Burleson are likely to be solid, but things fall off after that and four hitters is not enough. Nootbaar coming back strong would add a positive element. Baez and Crooks may get shots at adding offensive punch before the season gets too far along. If it works out, they could have seven guys that would feature 95 wRC+ or better in the line-up. That is an average line-up. With good pitching and good defense, that might be enough. Using the Starz model again, success would be finding five position players who can reliably project to top 2.7 fWAR, with 2 or 3 of them up and over 3.8 fWAR. Same question, can you see this potential by end of 2026?
A step forward from Scott II, Walker and/or Gorman would add needed depth to the line-up, also. After years of struggles, this is hard to count on. Maybe be mid-season the Cardinals end up with a cromulent offensive outfield of Baez, Church and Nootbaar. The final piece of the Starz model is … Zero, absolutely zero, below replacement level outcomes. Here is the support for that rule of thumb. Will this be the year that under-performing players are moved out?
A fallback
If 4 pitchers > 1.8 fWAR and five players > 2.7 fWAR seems like a bridge too far for this organization in 2026, perhaps a slightly lower bar of success could be … if they fall one or two players short of this target, knowing where they fall short (and not having too many holes) might propel them to begin acquiring MLB talent via trade or Free Agency next off-season to fill that last gap or two and be able to have a roster built to win 90 games.
Discuss.
