Before we dive into an analysis of Matthew Liberatore’s arsenal changes from spring training, let me take a second to introduce myself. I’ve been reading VEB for as long as I can remember. It’s always been an awesome place for analysis and fan commentary. I hope, in some small way, to be able to contribute to that ethic and help grow this community. I’m looking forward to the journey!
Like any good Rachel Ray pie, I’m constructing this before opening day and so Libby has just pitched yesterday. So, he was awesome – all star game here we come! Or, break out the torches and pitchforks while we chant “We want Fitts!” (That felt like the safest thing to chant for him, by far.) Here’s the thing, either way, Libby is going no where as Grand Poobah Chaim Bloom is solidly in his corner.
The Cardinals organization has gone from a lonely western tumbleweed as a player development staff to a team beefed up with former Guardians, Mariners, Dodgers, and Rays employees. Can we notice anything different in Libby? The answer is a resounding yes. At least as far as spring training shows, Libby is evolving. Let’s go ahead and issue the small sample size boilerplate response here – I know spring training stats don’t matter, you know it, frankly everyone but Mike Matheny knows it. But sometimes a change in approach does carry over.
Over on the Redbird Rundown podcast (if audio/visual is your thing, we have a ton of fun diving into numbers over there), we quickly brought up Libby’s name in Cardinals that will define the season. Check it out here if you want – Apple or Spotify!
Here’s the thing, Libby’s arsenal has expanded. (I was considering an Iran reference here, but I’m not going to test the limits of the first amendment in my first article for this hallowed site) He has debuted a splitter that is designed as an additional weapon against righties. News flash: a majority of MLB hitters are righties. This is going to determine just what caliber of pitcher he can be.
The splitter debuted in spring training with some fairly good metrics. It measured 6.2 in. IVB (10.1 in. offset from fastball), 5.6 in. armside run (2 in. offset from FB), and 88.2 MPH (6.9 MPH offset from FB). If these metrics have you smelling a changeup, you’ve got a good smeller. In fact, Fangraphs is noting a distinct uptick in the changeup usage – the splitter is likely to be the cause of that. This gives Libby seven pitches to play with.
Now this is where things get downright fascinating. In spring training (yes, I still know it’s spring training and that he has to prove it on repeat), Libby’s fastball was more effective than it’s ever been. According to Fangraphs, his fastball had a 2.1 run value. That’s the only time in his career that it’s ever been positive. Libby has always been a use-the-fastball-to-set-up-his-breaking-stuff guy. Now, maybe he’s not? The interplay between his increased offspeed offerings, in this case with the shape of his splitter, and his fastball produced some very interesting early results. (Yes, I know it’s spring training still, kindly refrain from thinking I’m not aware)
The downstream effects of Libby having a plus fastball are like the butterfly effect. He struck out 33.9% of all batters he faced and, brace yourself here, only walked 3.6% of hitters. That’s Dylan Cease level strikeouts with Tarik Skubal walk rates. Are those sustainable? Probably not, but if the fastball keeps playing up then it’s obvious that he doesn’t have to nibble on the edges as much.
You want more proof? You guys have a higher burden of proof than an Old Testament stoning. But here’s some more magic. Batters, in spring training, swung at rates that are average for Libby’s career. But their contact rates fell by 20%. His swinging strike percentage was double his career average. Yeah. Libby missed some serious bats this spring. Did you guys know the Cardinals need more swing and miss in their rotation? Huh, crazy.
There’s one last piece of Libby’s very strong spring that is intriguing. Batters made contact to the opposite field 42.9% of the time. His career rate is 26.7%. He’s baffling hitters into being behind and avoiding the deadly pull side contact more often than he ever has in his career.
Look, all this is likely to normalize. A leopard doesn’t change its spots often. But, the organization around Libby has certainly changed its spots and the very best development teams in baseball seem to be able to grow talent at will. Perhaps, just perhaps, this Cardinals franchise really is on the march back to relevance and will be powered by developing new talent and maximizing the guys they already have. So, it’s possible this new splitter is a weapon that will lead to a serious evolution in what Libby is capable of. I’m rooting for that. Shouldn’t you?
Regardless of how he pitched yesterday, the arsenal changes that Matthew Liberatore is making deserve our attention and, frankly, our respect. I’ll be watching that splitter closely going forward, but I think the secret is whether or not it continues to increase the effectiveness of his fastball or not.
Let me know what you’ve been seeing in the comments!
