Late last week, the Cardinals announced that Richard Fitts would begin the 2026 season with AAA Memphis, thus clarifying who the rotation will be to begin the year. Matthew Liberatore is privileged with the opportunity to start Opening Day against the Tampa Bay Rays, the club that selected him 17th overall in 2019, followed by Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Kyle Leahy, and Andre Pallante rounds out the initial 5. Several factors shape the who, why, and when other options will filter into the mix. FanGraphs ZIPS projections, and projections in general, are not a perfect science and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, they do offer a direction or snapshot and can be useful in establishing an expectation.
I don’t want to mislead any fans into thinking the 2026 Cardinals are the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers, and the projections just flat got it wrong. But I do have more optimism that the Cardinals’ rotation will outperform its season projection. I went through and calculated the fWAR projections and ranked all 30 MLB Opening Day rotations to establish this baseline and, fingers crossed, the conclave of Cardinals starting pitchers will outperform the industry’s anticipation of season-long performance.
30th – Colorado Rockies – 5.4 fWAR
Kyle Freeland
Michael Lorenzen
Jose Quintana
Tomoyuki Sugano
Chase Dollander
It seems likely that it will be another long season in the Mile High City. Chase Dollander should offer Rockies fans some intrigue and upside, but figuring out pitching in Colorado is Paul Depodesta’s new challenge, and I’m intrigued to watch how he attacks that opportunity over the next couple of years.
29th – Chicago White Sox – 6.6 fWAR
Shane Smith
Anthony Kay
Davis Martin
Sean Burke
Erick Fedde
The Pale Hose features a rotation fronted by 2025 All-Star Shane Smith, who was the number 1 pick in the Rule 5 Draft in 2025. Anthony Kay is looking to follow in the footsteps of fellow rotation mate Erick Fedde in establishing himself after a stint playing overseas. Davis Martin and Sean Burke both feature some interesting stuff but are probably back-end starters/depth, and Fedde is looking to recapture the magic he found in Chicago in 2024. David Sandlin, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith are all options with interesting upside who could factor into their rotation at some point in 2026, but it’s another building year for the Sox.
28th – Washington Nationals – 6.7 fWAR
Cade Cavalli
Miles Mikolas
Foster Griffin
Jake Irvin
Zach Littell
Cavalli is looking to make good on his prospect hype from a couple of seasons ago. Old friend Miles Mikolas and Zach Littell look to provide veteran innings. Foster Griffin, like Kay, is trying his hand at a comeback from overseas. Jake Irvin is someone who could stick around a while for the future of their rotation with a big breaking ball. Maintaining his FB velo will be key to his continued development. As Paul Toboni takes over in Washington, this group will likely get better in future seasons, but for now, the club is going to bide its time for development to get them back to contention.
* 27th – St. Louis Cardinals – 7.0 fWAR *
Matthew Liberatore
Michael McGreevy
Dustin May
Kyle Leahy
Andre Pallante
Unsurprisingly, after an offseason that saw the Cardinals shed several veteran players, the Cardinals are not expected to be very competitive. However, if you believe that Liberatore can take another step, Dustin May returning to his normal self, Andre Pallante bouncing back, and Kyle Leahy being compared to guys like Michael King and Clarke Schmidt by Eno Sarris of The Athletic in a radio spot he did for 101 ESPN in St. Louis. Then you include the potential of guys like Richard Fitts, Quinn Matthews, Hunter Dobbins, and possibly Brycen Mautz making starts for the Cardinals in 2026, and you can see how there is potential to outperform this projection. The Cardinals aren’t where they want to be, but Chaim Bloom has the team positioned to take important steps forward in the coming seasons.
26th – San Diego Padres – 7.0 fWAR
Michael King
Nick Pivetta
Randy Vazquez
German Marquez
Walker Buehler
For a playoff team from a season ago, this feels like a concerning step back, as the team prepares to be sold away from the Seidler family. Michael King and Nick Pivetta are solid, dependable mid-rotation starters for a contending team, Vazquez has some interesting stuff, and Marquez and Buehler are looking to bounce back after moving on from other NL West clubs over the past couple of years. The return of Joe Musgrove at some point this season will help, and the club will have JP Sears and knuckleballer Matt Waldron waiting in the wings in AAA. This could be another rotation that looks very different by midseason.
25th – Arizona Diamondbacks – 8.1 fWAR
Zac Gallen
Ryne Nelson
Eduardo Rodriguez
Michael Soroka
Brandon Pfaadt
The D-backs have an electric offense highlighted by Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo. Former Cardinal minor leaguer Zac Gallen headlines the Arizona rotation again after not getting the contract he thought he would get, being hurt by the presence of the QO. Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt are younger starters hoping to stabilize after inconsistencies plagued them in 2025. Eduardo Rodriguez had a strong WBC finale performance, and Michael Soroka will provide veteran stability and not a whole lot of depth at the top of their system. Everything will have to break right for Arizona to find itself in the playoff picture this season.
24th – Las Vegas/Sacramento Athletics – 8.2 fWAR
Luis Severino
Jeffrey Springs
Aaron Civale
Jacob Lopez
Luis Morales
This A’s group is one that I think can be sneaky competitive this year. The offense is scary and only going to get better with the eventual arrival of top prospect Leo De Vries. Luis Severino leads the A’s rotation once again after a strange 2025, where he was solid on the road, but Sutter Park is not meant to house big league players, and how the A’s try to maneuver that unique challenge will be interesting to watch in season 2 as they await their build to be completed in Las Vegas. Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale are solid mid-rotation starters who will provide solid floors. Jacob Lopez is a funky lefty who uses extreme angles to keep batters off balance. The real X factor for the rotation is Luis Morales, who I think has real 2-3 starter upside and the potential arrivals of Gage Jump and Braden Nett this group could sneak into the playoffs as a WC team.
23rd – Milwaukee Brewers – 8.2 fWAR
Jacob Misiorowski
Chad Patrick
Brandon Woodruff
Kyle Harrison
Brandon Sproat
This projection is probably wrong by ZIPS, and that feels like the only fair way to start this based on recent seasons. All 5 starters offer varying levels of upside, and the Brewers continue to stay ahead of the downward curve after moving on from Freddy Peralta this offseason. While I’m skeptical that they wind up being better than Pittsburgh or Chicago in the division this season, I am still cautiously hoping I’m not wrong about that. Of course they also have enviable depth with Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, and Shane Drohan, along with an injured Quinn Priester waiting in the wings at varying points of the season.
22nd – Los Angeles Angels – 8.3 fWAR
Jose Soriano
Yusei Kikuchi
Reid Detmers
Jack Kochanowicz
Ryan Johnson
This group of 5 offers some intrigue and upside. Soriano is a high-90s sinker guy who has the raw stuff to be a potential front-of-the-rotation starter, and Kikuchi is the veteran stability. Reid Detmers is jumping back into the rotation after finding his footing in the bullpen a season ago, much like Matthew Liberatore has done with St. Louis. Kochanowicz and Johnson are looking to establish themselves in the rotation and could raise the floor of the Angels should they do so. Grayson Rodriguez could further boost the upside of this group if he is able to find consistent health. Other options you could see pitched for LAA this year could include Sam Aldegheri, Caden Dana, and former Blue Jays All-Star Alek Manoah.
21st – Miami Marlins – 8.3 fWAR
Sandy Alcantara
Eury Perez
Max Meyer
Chris Paddack
Janson Junk
It’s hard to find a better trio of “stuff” from a top 3 in a big league rotation between Alcantara, Perez, and Meyer. Chris Paddack is a veteran back-end starter who should provide some solid innings, and Janson Junk outpitched Braxton Garrett for the final spot in their rotation. Top prospects Roby Snelling and Thomas White are poised to join the rotation at some point this season, which could push this group to even higher heights, and Peter Bendix and Co. are cooking with gas when it comes to their pitching pipeline.
20th – Cleveland Guardians – 8.7 fWAR
Tanner Bibee
Gavin Williams
Slade Cecconi
Joey Cantillo
Parker Messick
A classic Cleveland rotation that features young, productive arms that will almost certainly have them competing with the rest of a competitive AL Central. Bibee and Williams are strong foundational starters at the top of the Cleveland rotation. Slade Cecconi took a step forward last season after coming over from Arizona, and Cantillo and Messick are solid floor lefties who will give the Guardians a chance to win every night in 2026.
19th – New York Yankees – 8.9 fWAR
Max Fried
Cam Schlittler
Will Warren
Ryan Weathers
Luis Gil
This is a really solid 5-man rotation as is, but the Yankees expect to have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt return at various points this season, which will almost certainly give them the top rotation in the AL East when October rolls around. That’s not even mentioning Elmer Rodriguez or Carlos Lagrange who have big big stuff who could debut in 2026. The Yankees from a depth and upside perspective are enviable on both fronts.
18th – Chicago Cubs – 9.0 fWAR
Matthew Boyd
Cade Horton
Shota Imanaga
Edward Cabrera
Jameson Taillon
The 2026 Chicago Cubs will feature a rotation that should give them a reasonable chance to win every night. Horton and Cabrera offer upside and stuff. Boyd and Taillon offer veteran floor and stability. The X factor is Imanaga. Last season, the league started to catch up to Imanaga, and after returning by accepting the QO this past offseason, it will be very interesting to watch how he, in particular, responds to struggles late last season. Beyond that the Cubs have Colin Rea, Javier Assad, and Ben Brown, who could make starts for them, and top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins is a name to keep an eye on as well.
17th – Minnesota Twins – 9.5 fWAR
Joe Ryan
Bailey Ober
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Taj Bradley
Mick Abel
Never a bad thing to start your rotation with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Taj Bradley are guys who have had big league success and are looking to bounce back in 2026. Woods-Richardson and Abel are young arms with upside, looking to establish themselves. Pablo Lopez being out the entire season with TJ is a tough loss, but it shouldn’t automatically disqualify them in an open AL central. Their offense will be one to track as top prospect Walker Jenkins to go along with Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, and Royce Lewis could make them a surprise in 2026 after selling their entire bullpen at the deadline in 2025. Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Connor Prielipp, and Kendry Rojas are all names to keep an eye on as guys who could make starts for them in 2026 as well.
16th – New York Mets – 9.5 fWAR
Freddy Peralta
David Peterson
Nolan McLean
Clay Holmes
Kodai Senga
A much-improved 5-man group from a season ago. After a disastrous collapse by the Mets in the 2nd half of last season, this group should avoid the same fate their comrades did a season ago. Freddy Peralta is a legit number 1 starter, and Nolan McLean looks to be the future number 1 in Queens. David Peterson and Clay Holmes are both solid mid-rotation options, and Kodai Senga is looking to bounce back. Behind the initial 5, you have Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea, and Tobias Myers. I expect the Mets to be in the thick of things the entire season. They’ll certainly have their hands full with the rest of the NL East sans Washington.
15th – San Francisco Giants – 9.8 fWAR
Logan Webb
Robbie Ray
Tyler Mahle
Adrian Houser
Landon Roupp
This is a veteran group assembled by POBO Buster Posey. Webb and Ray are proven top of the rotation arms, Mahle and Houser are solid mid-rotation offerings, and Landon Roupp won the 5th spot after Hayden Birdsong went down with TJ. There are some young depth options that will probably factor in at some point given Ray and Mahle’s injury history. Those names could include top prospect Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, and Keaton Winn. The Giants should be competetive in the NL West but overcoming the behemoth that is the LA Dodgers is an exceptionally tall task.
14th – Toronto Blue Jays – 10.2 fWAR
Kevin Gausmann
Dylan Cease
Eric Lauer
Cody Ponce
Max Scherzer
This is a very top-heavy rotation with Guasmann and Cease forming an awesome 1-2 punch. Lauer and Ponce are more depth back-end guys who are forced into this spot due to injuries to Jose Berrios, Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis, and Trey Yesavage. Max Scherzer, who is still effective in the twilight of his career, will probably ramp it up a notch in the 2nd half of the season, and as Yesavage and Bieber work their way back from injury, this is a group that I expect will have a stronger 2nd half than 1st. Top lefty prospect Rickey Tiedemann is also close and could debut this season as well.
13th – Baltimore Orioles – 10.5 fWAR
Trevor Rogers
Kyle Bradish
Shane Baz
Chris Bassitt
Zach Eflin
Rogers had an excellent 2nd half last season and put him back on the map after early career success with Miami. Bradish is back after injury and looking to form a strong trio at the top of the rotation with Rogers and newly acquired Shane Baz. Mike Elias was NOT messing around this offseason and brought in veteran righty Chris Bassitt and brought back Zach Eflin. The Orioles, after a 1-year disappointment, are looking to come back with a vengeance in 2026. Behind those 5 is experienced righty Dean Kremer and top prospect Cade Povich. With a much needed investment on the pitching side and doubled down investment on the offensive side I have every expectation we will see Baltimore back in the playoffs in 2026.
12th – Houston Astros – 10.5 fWAR
Hunter Brown
Christian Javier
Tatsuya Imai
Mike Burrows
Lance McCullers Jr.
I really like the trio of Brown, Imai, and Burrows to build around long-term in Houston. Christian Javier and LMJ are trying to return from injury and re-establish themselves, and we’ve seen that when those guys are healthy, they’re very effective mid to upper rotation options. With Ronel Blanco out for the majority of 2026 due to TJ, you’ll likely see Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, and Miguel Ullola work as the depth options behind the initial 5, with veteran JP France also in the mix as well. After letting Framber Valdez walk in FA, this is now Hunter Brown’s rotation to lead, and I think he is a sneaky dark horse pick for AL Cy Young.
11th – Cincinnati Reds – 10.9 fWAR
Andrew Abbott
Nick Lodolo
Brady Singer
Rhett Lowder
Chase Burns
The loss of Hunter Greene for half the season is a tough one for a Cincy team that is looking to compete in a wide-open NL Central. Though the 1-5 they’re going to roll with to open the season should still give Reds fans some hope. Lodolo, Lowder, and Burns are all top picks over the last several seasons, and Brady Singer and Andrew Abbott provide a strong floor for the rotation until Greene returns. Beyond that, Chase Petty is another name with some mid-rotation upside who could provide some depth. I don’t think the Reds’ offense is going to be all that good and im skeptical the bullpen repeats from a year ago. But their rotation is solid with a lot of upside.
10th – Atlanta Braves – 11.2 fWAR
Chris Sale
Reynaldo Lopez
Spencer Strider
Grant Holmes
Bryce Elder
Into the top 10 and kicking things off is the Atlanta Braves fronted by multi-time Cy Young Winner and future Hall of Famer Chris Sale. Reynaldo Lopez had an unbelievable 2024 and is looking to bounce back with good health in 2026. Speaking of health, “Quadzilla” Spencer Strider is back, and that should really excite Braves fans for what’s to come in 2026. Grant Holmes had a nice 2025 and is a guy who can really spin the baseball and should provide a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Braves. Bryce Elder rounds out the group, but he may not have a super long leash with top prospect JR Ritchie appearing to be very close to ready. Didier Fuentes is another name who impressed in Spring, and veterans Martin Perez and Carlos Carrasco will be a call away in AAA if the injury bug continues to persist.
9th – Kansas City Royals – 11.9 fWAR
Cole Ragans
Michael Wacha
Seth Lugo
Kris Bubic
Noah Cameron
The X factor at the top of the rotation is Cole Ragans and if healthy he changes the entire complexion of this rotation. Beyond that Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are solid mid rotation guys, Kris Bubic broke out last year and found his way onto an All Star team, and Noah Cameron is a guy who avoids the barrell very well and should provide a solid floor at the back end of the rotation. 1-5 this is a group that should allow an exciting Kansas City team to reach the playoffs in 2026 and guys like Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila, and Ben Kdurna could work their way in if injuries play a factor.
8th – Tampa Bay Rays – 12.2 fWAR
Drew Rasmussen
Ryan Pepiot
Shane McClanahan
Nick Martinez
Steven Matz
Drew Rasmussen is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball and the Cardinals get him on Opening Day. Beyond that Ryan Pepiot and Shane McClanahan have the upside to pitch at the front of a rotation and Nick Martinez and Steven Matz are both versatile pitchers at the back of the rotation that if Joe Boyle, Brody Hopkins, or Joe Rock are ready to go at any point in the season those guys can bump to the bullpen and perform in those roles effectively as well. I think the Rays are gonna Ray this year and be one of those teams that nobody really expected, but will be right there at the end in the AL.
7th – Texas Rangers – 12.3 fWAR
Nathan Eovaldi
Jacob DeGrom
MacKenzie Gore
Jack Leiter
Jacob Latz
Eovaldi through Leiter is a really exciting 1-4, and the Rangers should be quite good in 2026 under new Manager Skip Schumaker. Latz is likely just a placeholder until Kumar Rocker or Jordan Montgomery are ready to take that 5 spot. This is where the real upper echelon of pitching rotations begins. Texas will be a disappointment if they are not a playoff team in 2026.
6th – Los Angeles Dodgers – 12.3 fWAR
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Tyler Glasnow
Shohei Ohtani
Emmet Sheehan
Roki Sasaki
The eventual inclusion of Blake Snell probably puts them in the top 3 in baseball but with this being the “opening day” rotations this takes a tumble all the way to 6th. World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto leads an exceptional group of Aces ahead of Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani. Sheehan and Sasaki are just an incredible flex for the Dodgers to be able to insert into the rotation. Beyond that a healthy return of Gavin Stone, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, and Landon Knack are all names that will likely see innings for the dodgers by way of how they approach pitching and getting through a full 162.
5th – Seattle Mariners – 12.4 fWAR
Logan Gilbert
Bryan Woo
Luis Castillo
George Kirby
Emerson Hancock
Again, with the caveat of injury to Bryce Miller, you’re probably talking about a top 3 rotation in baseball, and it should be an exciting season of baseball for fans in the Pacific Northwest, as the favorite for the AL West. Logan Gilbert should challenge Tarik Skubal for the Cy Young in 2026, and Bryan Woo, after a breakout 2026, is a very strong number 2. Luis Castillo is the veteran leader of the group and has been since coming over from Cincinnati, and is still an exceptional number 3 starter. George Kirby as the number 4 is good too. You could honestly arrange any of the 4 and feel good about Seattle’s chances any given night. Another opportunity for former top pick Emerson Hancock to show something while Miller is out. Randy Dobnak and Dane Dunning are veteran starters in AAA who will provide depth, and it won’t be too long before Ryan Sloan or Kade Anderson are making their way to Seattle in the coming seasons as well.
4th – Philadelphia Phillies – 12.6 fWAR
Christopher Sanchez
Aaron Nola
Jesus Luzardo
Taijuan Walker
Andrew Painter
With the potential to eventually swap out Taijuan Walker for Zach Wheeler theres no question this is one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. Sanchez is an emerging Ace and just signed an extension to be a Philly for the rest of his prime. Jesus Luzardo, the same deal. Big time stuff, will be a Philly for a long time. Aaron Nola is coming off a rough 2025, but a stable veteran with a ton of big league expirience he will find a way through for a playoff favorite roster. Andrew Painter is an X Factor. The current top pitching prospect for Philadelphia is going to light up radar guns and excite Philly fans for years to come.
3rd – Pittsburgh Pirates – 12.7 fWAR
Paul Skenes
Mitch Keller
Carmen Mlodzinski
Braxton Ashcraft
Bubba Chandler
Of course, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner fronts the top projected rotation in the NL on opening day. Along with steady mid-rotation starter Mitch Keller, the upside of Ashcraft and Chandler really raises the ceiling, and then to top it off, you include the return of Jared Jones at some point this season, and you’re talking about a really, really good group of 5 starters. The questions will be about health, and if the offensive additions will be enough to help them reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
2nd – Boston Red Sox – 15.8 fWAR
Garrett Crochet
Sonny Gray
Johan Oviedo
Ranger Saurez
Bryan Bello
Last year’s AL Cy Young runner up and one of the top choices for the award again, Garrett Crochet, leads an exceptional Boston rotation that now also features newcomers Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and Ranger Saurez. Bryan Bello rounds out the group and is one hell of a number 5 starter. Any rotation that excludes Connelly Early or Payton Tolle from starting the season with the group is almost unfair. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Patrick Sandoval all work their way back from injury and could pitch important innings for the club as well. The Red Sox have a ridiculous amount of depth and upside that should make them one of the favorites in the AL.
1st – Detroit Tigers – 16.2 fWAR
Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez
Jack Flaherty
Justin Verlander
Casey Mize
Back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal leads the top projected starting rotation into 2026, and you add Framber Valdez a number 1 caliber in his own right to be Skubal’s number 2 along with Flaherty and Verlander as your 3-4 and Mize, a former number 1 overall pick with a 70 grade splitter, it’s genuinely an all in season for the Tigers and their actions sure seem to indicate as much. Top prospect Kevin McGonigle is projected to start the season with the “Motor City Kitties” as well, and I am very interested in watching what Detroit can do this year.
The Cardinals aren’t a top rotation in baseball, but they do have some interesting upside and the potential to overachieve. But, they don’t have the horses to contend with the big boys in baseball this year. That’s okay, for now, especially when you look at the stockpile of arms that are at the lower levels of the minors. The Cardinals would like to be among the top of this group in the next several years, and the work that the development staff and draft scouts are working towards is that very goal. This is just a snapshot of where things stand before opening day. But it sets expectations for the season and really allows Cardinals fans the chance to properly calibrate expectations, and if the team winds up beyond what we think with the optimism of whats to come can give you a window into what the Cardinals’ new brain trust is trying to sell you on. “Long-term vision” doesn’t lean into competing for the middle and sneaking in any longer. It’s about competing at the top, and if you’re a fan who has groaned for something new. Opening Day is the beginning of that.
-Thanks for reading
