A week of spring training is in the books and we finally have real life actual Major League Baseball games to talk about. There have been some fun moments with Rainiel Rodriguez doubling in his first at-bat and JJ Wetherholt going yard to dead center yesterday afternoon. I will refrain from caveating observations with spring training small sample size disclaimers. The results thus far certainly don’t mean much, but there are still a few underlying data points that are worth highlighting.
Richard Fitts was impressive in his first spring outing, throwing two scoreless innings. Notably, Fitts’ four-seam fastball averaged 97.6 MPH compared to a 2025 average velocity of 95.9 MPH. If this velocity gain sticks, it will be the continuation of a trend that saw Fitts’ velocity increase over his last six starts of 2025. Fitts’ four-seamer had above-average induced vertical break (IVB) of 17 inches in 2025 and this increased to over 18 inches in his first spring training start. Carlos Martinez is the only Cardinals starting pitcher to have a fastball velocity above 96 MPH over ten or more starts in the Statcast era. With a starting rotation starved for fastball velocity, it is hard to imagine Fitts not breaking camp in the rotation if he stays healthy this spring.
Jose Fermin hit the hardest ball of his career against Miami, clocking one at 111.4 MPH on a single to left. His previous career high was 109 in Triple-A. One batted ball is the definition of small sample size, but it will be worth watching to see if he can increase his damage on contact. I don’t think Fermin needs to change anything to be a productive hitter, but he would become even more interesting if he could increase his power without sacrificing too much contact.
Quinn Mathews has had a rough start to spring training from a results standpoint, walking four batters and hitting two in his first 4.1 innings. Mathews walked over seven batters per nine innings in Triple-A last season, so it goes without saying that he will need to iron out his command before he is given a crack at the St. Louis rotation. On the positive side, his fastball velocity is up to its 2024 levels thus far after losing a tick last season. Mathews spoke at Winter Warmup about refocusing in the weight room over the offseason. He admits that he is not a naturally strong person, so it is critical for him to get his work in to be able to create the force necessary to throw a baseball. Topping out at 96.7, as he did in his first spring start, is a good indication that he is back on the right track. If his command ever does return, having his A-fastball to go along with his devastating changeup and slider will make him a real weapon.
Of the ten or so interesting Class A and Class A+ pitching prospects, Mason Molina was the first to pitch in a spring training game. Kareen Haq, one of the best Cardinals prospect prognosticators, tweeted a summary of his pitch metrics following his one-inning cameo.
The highest IVB, which measures the coveted perceived “rising” fastball, last season in all of baseball was 20.9 inches by Alex Vesia of the Dodgers. This is the type of outlier trait the front office has started to target in trades and the draft over the last year. Molina has plenty of warts as a prospect, but his fastball gives him some legitimate upside potential. Molina has 11 High-A starts under his belt, so a promotion to Double-A to start the season would be a bit aggressive, but he will be a player worth keeping an eye on when the minor league rosters are announced.
Jack Gurevitch smoked a ball at 114.1 MPH against the Astros on Thursday. Gurevitch maxed out at 117 MPH in college, but it is still good to see the exit velocity translating with wood bats. Only Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras have max exit velocities higher than 114 MPH the last two seasons for the Cardinals. Gurevitch has been a bit of a forgotten man in a deep Cardinals system, but the team must really like his bat to have spent a third-round pick on a player that is likely to be a first baseman as he moves up the ladder. Alec Burleson and Luken Baker are the only other first basemen the Cardinals have spent a top-three-round draft pick on in the last ten years. As an advanced college bat, he could be a quick mover if he hits well out of the gate.
Minor league camp is now fully underway as well. Games will not begin for another week, but the first bit of news came out on which DSL players would be coming stateside, with 14 players in total making the move. As expected, the talented group of hitters includes Juan Rojano, Sebastian Dos Santos, Miguel Hernandez, Kenly Hunter, and Royelny Strop. I wrote a bit about this group of prospects earlier this offseason, with the only player not making the jump being Yeferson Portalatin. Yaxson Lucena made the jump stateside at the end of last year.
Of the eight DSL pitchers coming to the US, the highest-profile are Branneli Franco and Reiner Lopez. Franco was arguably the top pitcher in the 2024 class, receiving the largest bonus of any pitcher at $800K. He has a fastball that can hit the upper 90s and posted solid numbers last season, albeit in just 16.1 innings. Reiner Lopez has been on the radar even longer after signing for $500K in 2023. Lopez has remained a person of interest because of his towering 6’8” frame. Lopez turns 20 in April and will need to start making progress soon as he is Rule 5 eligible after next season. The Cardinals have given plenty of pitchers from the Florida Complex team opportunities to move up to Low-A in-season, so it is not outside the realm of possibility that either pitcher could make a full season debut this year.
