Our newest writer, John Latham, had an interesting look at The Cardinals’ 2026 Roster and the Cost of Choosing Too Slowly. It got me to thinking about how things might look after the 2026 season is over and it is time to revamp the 40-man roster again. It can pay to look down the road a bit, as these future considerations can often influence in-season decisions on who gets promoted.
One of the implications of this (almost completed) off-season is how much churn the organization has introduced to the 40-man roster, not only now, but on out into the future. I count 13 players new to the 40-man roster just since the trading deadline, 9 of them pitchers. Fully one-third of the roster has turned over. One could argue that a 78-win team that has missed the playoffs three consecutive years should have that kind of turnover.
In November 2025 much ado was made of 40-man roster pressure. Some indicated that 40-man concerns played into why we didn’t see JJ Wetherholt in the majors at all. In the end, though, the Cardinals added just five players (Bernal, Baez, Torres, Hjerpe and Mautz). Five additions were enough in the sense they didn’t expose anyone unnecessarily, as only Winquest was drafted away but he is expected back. It wasn’t enough in the sense there is still a talent deficit.
Not to be harsh, but the only guys that were removed or non-tendered or bypassed were guys that did not have a lot of foreseeable upside or their timeline for development had pretty much expired without enough progress.
To me, a strong draft-and-development program will constantly face progressively more difficult 40-man roster issues, if they are being successful. Younger guys will pressure the more established prospects in an “up or out” conveyor belt. If the perception of the Cardinals minor league system is valid, this next November could reveal more difficult 40-man roster choices. I’m curious if we look over the horizon if that is what we see.
Let’s take an early look at prospects not on the 40-man roster who will need to be at the next deadline in November 2026. Suffice it to say, the Cardinals will face more than five decisions next year. That says something good about the depth of the system (improving). I will focus only on ranked prospects, reducing Latham’s list by a bit:
Guys that are either possible or likely to get 40-man spots before they need to, due to MLB promotion (3):
Wetherholt, Mathews, Doyle
Prospects that will require 40-man spots in November 2026 to be protected from Rule V (9):
Skylar Hales, Luis Gastelum, Ixan Henderson, Jesus Baez, Travis Honeyman, Chase Davis, Zach Levenson, Chen Wei Lin, Tyler Bradt
Reliever prospects that may ascend to the 40-man to feed the Memphis shuttle as the Cardinals rotate bullpen arms and while protecting other prospects (4):
Mason Burns, Michael Watson, Zack Thompson, Scott Blewitt
As I look at the current roster and the number of injured arms, I suspect the seven healthy pitchers who are on the 40-man that won’t be on the 26-man coming out of Spring Training will not be enough to support the MLB bullpen.
The first complication of 40-man roster management is the need to cycle in fresh arms for the bullpen during the season can muck up the long-term planning. Sometimes, during the season, these guys get the call not because they are the best arm, but because they are the most expendable. Blewitt won’t be protected next November. If a need arises in-season, he’d be a guy they could promote because his occupancy of a 40-man spot would be temporary and won’t force the subtraction of a real prospect. A guy in his spot really gets one shot. When he gets the MLB call, he better keep it because his pathway out of the MLB bullpen is likely via the DFA route. Orgs will burn through these guys before they start promoting younger guys onto the 40-man that don’t need to be.
Once a guy gets a 40-man spot, it is his and pretty much the only way the organization can get it back is letting him go. The proverbial “cut ties”. Shuffle that incorrectly, and you end up having to promote a guy before he is ready or needing to go to the waiver wire to fill an unexpected hole. Both are less than desirable options.
To balance all this, it helps to understand what spots might open up at the end of the season. First, there are the players on 1-year contracts (May, Stanek). Also, one can gander at the current 40-man roster and suspect there are some spots that can use some improvement. I don’t need to single out any individual player, but you can probably look and imagine in the area of five players. Easy enough. But that means that over the summer and into next fall, the organization must carefully balance 16 guys that may need spots in the next 9 months with the 7 spots they will realistically have open.
For those keeping score at home, 16 guys do not fit into 7 spots. In essence, there are 9-10 hard decisions coming. A few prospects will drop off the list of 16 due to non-performance but one or two could emerge as breakouts, too. Saladin? Hansen? Rajcic? Rincon? Love? It happens. If any one of these guys find that last ingredient to their game, they will need to go on the 40-man by November or be lost.
How do they balance all this?
- Wetherholt, Mathews and Doyle are guys that will be promoted when the org feels they are ready. Hard to put a timeline on each one, but it sure seems possible that JJW would break camp in spring with the big club. I’d say Mathews is ahead of Doyle but both appear to be around 8-9 on the starter depth chart, behind May, Pallante, Liberatore, McGreevy, Leahy, Dobbins, Fitts. Most years most teams need more than 7 starters. Their time will come. But when it does, they will push someone on the current roster off, and out of the organization.
- Blewitt and Thompson are guys not on the 40-man but could well end up there and promoted when there is a critical need. If they come out of spring healthy and productive.
- Gastelum, Hales, Lin and Bradt will likely be handled similarly. They will idle in in the minors longer than Blewitt and Thompson, developing their game. When the bullpen needs an infusion (they seemingly always do), the one doing best of this group will be pushed up the ladder earliest, claiming a coveted 40-man spot. Lin will start at AA, so he is probably last in line. The others may all start the year in the Memphis bullpen. Someone will step forward in this group, and an opportunity will undoubtedly arise. Sometimes you just have be in the right place, at the right time.
- Burns and Watson are similar to the above group of relievers, but they do not need to be protected at the end of the year, so the org will be reluctant to burn a 40-man spot for them unless forced to by circumstances. Their 40-man decision will likely not be made in 2026. Although influenced by how their 2026 season goes, their time is not now.
- Honeyman, Davis and Levenson will also likely be handled similarly. Each must demonstrate a reason to protect them at year end. All 3 three are outfielders on an outfield starved team, so their path to MLB could be quick with great performance and a 40-man spot, once claimed, isn’t easily given up. I suspect there is a position player roster clean-up coming by the end of 2026 like the pitching clean-up that has occurred this off-season. These guys could all get swept out if they are unable to progress enough. My view would be if they haven’t earned an MLB promotion by end of 2026, they won’t be protected.
- Jesus Baez is an interesting case. He too must demonstrate a reason to protect him at years end. Given he ended the year a High-A, he has no chance at MLB promotion, so his decision will be made in November. Expect him to start in AA and let’s hope he excels.
Crafting the 40-man roster, and transacting in-season, requires a long-term look and can be a bit like 3-dimensional chess. Since 16 guys won’t fit into 7 spots, we might expect to see the Cardinals begin dealing prospects later in the year to consolidate talent. As well, some of the guys who’ve gotten long lead times to develop may find their runway clearance cancelled. The more of these 16 players the organization believes will be successful, the sooner in 2026 we could begin to see roster churn.
