Merry Christmas to those who celebrate, happy holidays to those who don’t, and the rule of thirds dictates that I have a third point here, but I kind of covered it. Do you perhaps wish for the Cardinals to make a big signing in free agency? And perhaps this signing can come from abroad, from one of the two relevant Japanese players still available to be signed.
One player is already off the board. Munetaka Murakami signed a 2 year, $34 million deal with the White Sox earlier this week. It was a far cry from the projected salary but hardly surprising when I dug into Murakami earlier this month. He comes with massive strikeout and defensive questions and the minor league translation Bradley Woodrum created was not encouraging for Murakami. And in theory, you could still make the argument he made sense for the Cardinals…except they really don’t need another 1B. If he could fake the outfield, I’d be more receptive.
Kazuma Okamoto
Okamoto is a very, very similar player to Murakami in some ways. They are both considered fringe 3B who may have to move to 1B, they both had an injury-plagued season leading up to their free agency, and they both have a lot of power. Okamoto hit 15 homers in 63 games in 2025, but his career high was 41 two years ago. But they differ in important ways. Murakami’s contact problems have gotten worse, Okamoto’s have gotten better. Okamoto’s defensive reports are a lot more positive on him staying at 3b as well.
Okamoto is also going to be 30 next season. There tends to be a natural adjustment period to hitting in the major leagues, and by the time he adjusts, he will most likely already be declining as a player. Why do position players from Japan struggle so much in the US? Part of it is when they get here, past their prime and on the wrong side of aging curve.
With all of that said, Okamoto might be better positioned than most. In 2025, he did not strike out much. He had an 11.3 K%, by far his career best. His power did not suffer from this either, carrying with a .271 ISO, the second best mark of his career only behind his 41 HR season. He is not a one trick pony though, hitting 21 doubles last season in his short season, totaling 37 extra base hits in 63 games.
He also importantly has hit high velocity pitches. Well most of the guys who come over here technically can hit high velocity pitches. The problems tend to arise with how often they miss those pitches in the NPB. In Okamoto’s case, he had a 17% K rate and 148 wRC+ against pitches 95 mph or greater in the NPB. He is most comparable to Seiya Suzuki in this respect, who carried a 15% K rate and 166 wRC+. Obviously, a little worse, but we’d all be happy with a little worse than a 127 wRC+.
As mentioned above, Woodrun created a formula to translate the NPB performance to the US using two models: a simple one using K% and wRC+, and then component model using K%, BB%, and slugging. When you combine the two methods, he had the best projected wRC+ at 114. So indeed that is a little worse than a 127 wRC+. As for his defense, that is a question. The most I can find on his defense is that something called DeltaGraphs UZR has him as a solid 3B. That’s not reliable and clearly the risk here, because I don’t know that it’s super likely his bat plays at 1B.
FG projected contract: 4 years, $72 million
Tatsuya Imai, RHP
Imai was not an impressive pitcher in 2020. He didn’t strike out many (14%) and walked far too many (16.8%). But the reason he will get a nice contract is that he has arguably improved every year since then. First it was his strikeouts: he jumped from 14% to 20% and then 24%. It has risen all the way to a career high 27.8% last season and if not for 24.8% to 24.4% from 2022 to 2023, it would have risen every since since 2020. His walks took longer to improve to acceptable, but in this case, he did literally cut down his walk rate every year since 2020. It has been a gradual process, somewhere between losing a percent and two percent off his walk rate every year of his career, to again a career low of 7% last season.
Imai throws primarily fastballs and sliders, but also has a change and a splitter. Eno Sarris compared his fastball to Joe Ryan, looking at his velocity, his movement data, and likely arm angle. Ryan struck out over 100 batters on his fastball in 2025, so this would be very good news if translated for Imai. While he can throw mid-90s, he has reached has high as 100 mph. His fastball has got the juice.
He has a slider that produced a 46% swing-and-miss rate in Japan, so he has a fairly strong one-two punch. He changed his grip on his changeup which is now a “Vulcan change.” He also throws an effective splitter. He, at least in Japan, used his change and splitter more on lefties as he was pretty much fastball-slider against right-handed batters. All of his offspeed pitches carry a 40% or greater swing and miss rate.
What’s the downside? He’s 5’11. Near as I can tell, this is the only downside. It’s a downside that is deservedly a downside for a prospect, I’m not sure it applies to a pitcher who has proven he can throw 150 innings (and as much as a 173). I suppose the different starter schedules might change things, but it’s a rather weak downside to me. The difficulty in adjusting to the majors is the “real” downside, but that’s inherent in any overseas signing.
Best news: he’s 28 next season. He could still improve. He has improved every year since 2020 and clearly despite a lot of success, is continuously finding ways to gain the upper hand on hitters.
Ben Clemens estimate: 5 years, $100 million
There’s a third notable pitcher, though significantly less notable in Kona Takahashi. I don’t really want to go into detail about him because, well, he doesn’t strike people out. Like at all. He had a 14% K rate in the NPB. I don’t really see how he can translate to the majors. He does have a 50% GB rate and 3.28 xFIP, but yeah I just don’t see how a 14% K rate translates. I suppose he will be extremely cheap so what’s the harm, but unless there’s a reason the Cardinals scouts think they can get more strikeouts out of him, I don’t see the point.
So there you have it. A shorter post on two prominent names who the Cardinals might want to grab. Both make sense for different reasons, neither come with QOs, and both should have somewhat reasonable contracts. Both would clearly be moves that indicate they are not writing off 2026. In my opinion. I’m not saying they’re going all in, but they are moves that sort of nudge the Cardinals into the possibility of sneaking into the playoffs. What’s more fun than a rebuild that still results in a playoff appearance?
