I want to be clear that this is not a complaint. The St. Louis Cardinals lack of dialogue about the status of Nolan Arenado is both necessary and expected, but as the winter months roll along it’s becoming difficult to imagine a happy ending to the desire to move him to another team. There are a few scenarios I’ll explore about what I hope Chaim Bloom is working on with one in particular that I think remains the most compelling.
First, a quick rewind to last winter. I thought that John Mozeliak’s handling of the potential trade of Nolan Arenado during the last offseason was a disaster. We should never have learned about the five teams Nolan would approve a trade to or the fact that he shut down an agreed upon trade with the Houston Astros. I thought there was entirely too much talking to the press about what the St. Louis Cardinals were trying to achieve behind-the-scenes. That’s why I will not play the role of hypocrite and complain about the lack of information about potential activity regarding a Nolan Arenado trade now.
Let’s begin with what Chaim Bloom says will not happen. The St. Louis Cardinals will reportedly not consider releasing Nolan Arenado yet manager Oli Marmol told the MLB Network that the team and Nolan expect he’ll be moved this winter. While neither has ruled out Arenado coming back for another season, finding a landing spot for him remains a top priority. There is a consensus that the Cardinals are also willing to add substantial cash to the deal to get it done. There are only three or four teams I can foresee being willing to add Nolan to their roster knowing all that we currently know. One, in my opinion, rises above the rest.
I’ve seen it written that the Detroit Tigers are the team that needs an upgrade at third base the most. I just can’t convince myself that Nolan is the solution the Tigers are looking for even if he’s willing to go to Detroit. Comerica Park isn’t a place that will be very accommodating to Nolan’s offensive abilities at this stage of his career. Granted, he’s only played 8 games there in his career, but a .152 average with 1 HR and 3 RBIs isn’t encouraging.
The Arizona Diamondbacks need a better solution at third base. StatMuse says that Nolan Arenado has a .280 batting average with 84 hits, 13 home runs, 54 RBIs and 38 runs scored in 77 games at Chase Field. That’s acceptable, but still not a compelling reason for them to take on any significant amount of his salary. There is talk in the past couple of days that Arizona might be in the market for Alex Bregman. While I have a hard time envisioning Bregman choosing Arizona, that scenario brings up another Nolan Arenado option.
The Boston Red Sox are still the most compelling option for the St. Louis Cardinals for a Nolan Arenado trade if Alex Bregman does not return. Many have mentioned how inviting the Green Monster might be for Nolan Arenado and StatMuse backs up that idea. While it’s a smaller sample size, Nolan has a .372 average with 35 hits, 7 home runs, 20 RBIs and 15 runs scored in 23 games at Fenway Park. When you factor in that Nolan’s good friend Trevor Story is still a Red Sox after opting in for the final two years of his contract, Boston makes a lot of sense if the Cardinals are willing to cover a hefty part of his salary. The key problem is that there is still an expectation that Alex Bregman returns.
I realize that Nolan Arenado has a southern California home closest to the Los Angeles Angels stadium, but I still can’t see the highly-competitive Nolan agreeing to a trade there. Ken Rosenthal did mention the Angels view Arenado as an option if they work out a buyout with Rendon.
I’ve also heard theories about the Los Angeles Dodgers coming out of nowhere and adding Nolan considering Max Muncy’s versatility and there’s no doubt that he would approve a trade there and they seem to have money to burn, but I haven’t heard any indications that there’s any Dodgers interest in him. I think at the end of the day that the St. Louis Cardinals best trade option for Nolan Arenado is the Boston Red Sox. That’s why paying attention to where Alex Bregman lands (just like last offseason) is the best indication of the Cardinals getting their wish and getting an acceptable Nolan Arenado trade done.
