Once a potentially impactful draft that nobody paid attention to, the Rule 5 draft is now an inconsequential draft that most diehard baseball fans pay too much attention to. Present company included. I kid, sort of. But it was once a draft that gave the Pittsburgh Pirates Roberto Clemente, the Chicago Cubs Hack Wilson, and the Minnesota Twins Johan Santana. These days, it’s mostly a reliever factory. The best representative of which is Garrett Whitlock, selected in the 2020 Rule 5 by none other than Chaim Bloom.
In the search for the next Whitlock, Bloom has selected a player who has encountered a vastly different journey than Whitlock did. Whitlock was an 18th rounder and not really a prospect when selected, but nonetheless it’s easy to see his success coming when looking at his minor league stats and the age he was when he pitched. He was a good starting pitcher in AA at 23-years-old in 14 starts. Forgot the missing 2020 season: that is the exact profile of an upside Rule 5 pick.
Matt Pushard, who the Cardinals selected yesterday, is the other kind of Rule 5 pick. The old minor leaguer who never got a chance. And the good version of this kind, in my opinion, is the one who was old simply because there was no avenue for him not to be old. Believe it or not, despite being 28-years-old, if Pushard makes the Opening Day roster next year, one could say he got to the majors pretty quickly once his pro career got started.
That’s because his pro career got started extremely late. To give you an idea of how late, Pushard first became Rule 5 eligible…. now. This year. In case you need a reminder, players aged 19-years-old or older need to spend four seasons as a professional before they are eligible and that includes their draft year. Pushard wasn’t drafted, but he was signed at about the same time as the draft, so it effectively took him three minor league seasons to get to this point.
There is remarkably little information on his history. I searched for it too. Usually when I write on specific players, there’s at least one glowing profile on their come-up somewhere. They are the stud of their college team, maybe they even were a prospect at one time, but all due respect to Pushard, I don’t think there was anything to suggest a notable baseball career. So without the profile, I’ll tell the story with his stats.
Born in Bangor, Maine, Pushard attended Brewer High School in Brewer, Maine and then went to the University of Maine for college. Very much a Maine boy attending his state college to try to play baseball. I don’t know how to say this delicately, but the Maine Black Bears were very bad when he arrived. He also played his first season at 19-years-old. It seems somewhat likely that Maine was Pushard’s only opportunity to play Division I baseball. (I had to rewrite this paragraph, because I had not realized the University of Maine had a pretty good baseball history. The first version was a little dismissive of the school if I’m being honest. I don’t know enough about who is good in college baseball to be making those assumptions.)
His first year went well. He allowed 2 runs in 18 innings in relief. He only struck out 6.5 batters per 9, however he was presumably invited to play in the Perfect Game Summer League, and there he struck out 11.3 batters per 9 innings while serving as the closer. It looks like he got hurt in 2018, because he only pitched in one game. He probably used a redshirt this season.
In 2019, he was very, very bad. He walked 29 to just 16 strikeouts in 21.1 IP. He allowed 26 runs, although somehow 11 were unearned. The Maine Black Bears were 15-34, finishing in last place that season. He somewhat regained his form in the New England Summer League, but had a 6.27 ERA in the 2020 season, but his K/BB numbers were so much better. He fully seemed to return to form in the 2021 season, as the Maine Black Bears, winning just one game in 2020, rebounded to 22-22, breaking a string of last place finishes.
At this point, Pushard was 23-years-old. He had just had his best season. He had seen his college team completely change their fortunes. And thanks to the redshirt and COVID, he was eligible for a sixth college season in 2022. I’m sure there was not a huge demand for him, so return he did, serving as the team’s closer. He did get 9 saves and struck out 30.7% of batters, but he had a huge walk problem and had a 6.00 ERA. Maine, however, went 27-22 and achieved 1st place in the regular season, but did get eliminated in the America East tournament.
Understandably, he went undrafted, but the Marlins signed him as an undrafted free agent. At 24, he was sent to finish out his season in the complex league, and frankly pitched bad enough to get released. He only pitched in 5 games, but he walked 8 and allowed 6 runs in 3.2 innings. As a 24-year-old in the complex league. The Marlins ignored it though, and he quickly advanced to AA in 2023. He was truly dominant in High A, but he hit a wall in AA. He pitched most of the 2024 season in AA, where he was elite, and then pitched all of 2025 in AAA. He wasn’t exactly elite, but he did strike out 28.5% of batters. And that’s where we are today.
Let’s talk about his scouting report. Pushard throws a fastball that averages 94-96 and tops out at 97. It’s a very good fastball, at least by results. He had a 74.7% strike rate, a 39.5% chase rate, and 20.2% swinging strike rate with his fastball (all 99 percentile or better), which he throws at the top of the zone 56% of the time. He also has a curveball or sweeper – it’s called a curveball, it might function like a sweeper – that produces a 39.6% whiff rate against right-handed batters. His slider is also effective against right-handed batters.
Pushard’s problem, why he was unprotected, is that he doesn’t really have anything but the fastball against lefties. Anything effective that is. He gets whiffs on both his curve and his slider more than 30% of the time, but it’s closer to 20% of the time when he faces lefties. He also doesn’t have near as much command of his breaking pitches as he does his fastball.
So clearly the Cardinals drafted him with a plan for how he can get lefties out. It seems like they don’t need to do much for his plan against right-handed batters. He already throws different pitches based on handedness. The reason I say sometimes the curve acts as a sweeper is because the curve acts different based on if the batter is left-handed or right-handed. As you can guess, it’s sweepier if the batter is right-handed.
Fish on First notes that he also has a changeup and a cutter, but he doesn’t use them very often. Whether they want to add a pitch or tweak an existing pitch, certainly the change and cutter are good places to start, two pitches traditionally thrown to the opposite hand. I’m guessing his changeup isn’t very good and that he just hasn’t really needed the cutter. His fastball produced a 39% whiff rate against left-handed batters, and he certainly trusts the cutter less than the fastball at the least.
I imagine Pushard will enter spring camp with a fully formed plan on what he needs to improve by the end of spring and if no progress is made, he’ll probably be returned. Given where the Cardinals are right now, he probably does not need to make a ton of progress to justify him making the MLB roster however.
I recommend reading this Twitter thread by Matthew Knauer, where I got most of this information, who says he’s the most MLB ready relief pitcher in the Rule 5 draft.
Ryan Murphy
No, we’re not here to talk about the TV showrunner who makes bad TV shows and will not stop making bad TV shows, we’re here to talk about former Giants prospect Ryan Murphy. I’ll make this short, but he was once kind of a prospect. He was selected in the 5th round of the 2020 draft, but was seen as a money-savings pick at the time. But he exceeded expectations and became a bit of a prospect. He was ranked as the 19th prospect in the system according to McCovey Chronicles before the 2023 season. He was okay that year, but repeated AA in 2024. He made 12 pretty good starts, but before he could get that promotion, he needed Tommy John.
He used the rest of the 2025 season for rehab, essentially. He appeared in 8 games total, 4 of which were at Low A. He was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he didn’t pitch particularly well, but nobody pitches well in the AFL it seems. I also like this pick. When he was last healthy (and not just rehabbing or playing in an impossible hitter’s league), he was 24 and pitching well as a starter in AA. He’s probably just minor league depth, but I could see an MLB reliever in him.
Who they lost
Cade Winquest – I could be wrong, but it feels like a bit of a longshot that he’ll stay on the MLB team in New York. He was a starter in AA and he can reach 100 in relief, but I don’t know, it’s quite a leap and the Yankees aren’t exactly in the position to suffer growing pains. We’ll see.
Sean Harney – 27-year-old lefty who wasn’t very good in AA last season, sure knock yourselves out Diamondbacks.
Matt Lloyd – He was signed out of independent league ball along with Bryan Torres, but unlike Torres, he appears to be limited to corner outfield and 1B. Now 30-years-old, he had a 111 wRC+ in AAA last season. Hopefully, he can make his MLB debut with the Red Sox, I’m not seeing better than… John Nogowski here (who had vastly better stats)
Zane Mills – He has never really been a prospect and I’m fairly certain his stuff is unimpressive, but out of the minor league group, he feels like the one that could “backfire.” At 24, he posted respectable stats with a 24.3 K% in relief. My comment is mostly an age thing though, I don’t think I’d expect him to make the majors if he went undrafted honestly.
