The St. Louis Cardinals are officially committing to the rebuild after teasing with the transition idea at this time last year. With Sonny Gray gone, the Cardinals need to go fully into this new direction and truly look to take advantage of their trade pieces. By now, you know to me that means dealing Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, and probably JoJo Romero. As of this moment, I think Romero sneaks through the cracks and finds himself heading to Spring Training still a member of the Cardinals.
Even if the team still decides to hang onto their assets too long in hopes of a trade deadline haul, it remains evident that the major league pitching is a massive question mark, regardless of the organization’s rebuild status. A pitching staff that continuously gives up 5+ runs per night makes the season drag on and the games borderline unwatchable. I say this as a baseball fan in Chicagoland who was too involved in both Chicago team’s rebuilds. We can look at the Pirates and see that, even in uncompetitive years, electric pitching can at least bring some excitement around the team at a local and national level, something the Cardinals are going to need help with as a mid-market team going through a competitive downturn.
In the Gray deal, the Cardinals received a semi-intriguing, big league arm back in Richard Fitts, but Brandon Clarke appears to be the higher ceiling arm, albeit years away from the bigs. Surrounding Fitts is the group of Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, and Kyle Leahy. In the first year of the rebuild, there is nothing wrong with figuring out what that group can do for a major league rotation. However, it would be hard to blame a fan if they were worried about what the rotation could not just bring this year, but what they could really do for the Cardinals of the future. That is where I started thinking about the six-man rotation idea, another suggestion that was mentioned by the team at the start of last year that just never really happened. This year, I think that could be something the Cardinals could implement as a way to 1. Protect their question mark arms, 2. Streamline development, and 3. Find a diamond in the rough.
1. Protect the question mark arms
First off, I expect the Cardinals to be more active in acquiring big league arms, be it on the trade market or in free agency. The free agent arms would likely be reclamation projects, so fans should hinder their expectations for any high-dollar signing. With the current group, though, there are plenty of question marks ranging from performance to durability. Last season, the Cardinals were lucky (read: unlucky) with pitching injuries and only needed six starting pitchers for the vast majority of the season. I would bet against that type of injury avoidance happening again.
Besides Pallante, none of the other four projected starters have a major league body of work that expands over the 334 innings that Liberatore has covered in his career. The returning pitchers all set a career-high in innings pitched last season, with Pallante’s 162.2 leading next year’s squad. Libby wasn’t far behind with 151.2, but that was the most he has thrown since tossing 115 in 2022. He showed signs of fatigue at the end of the season last year, so hopefully he can continue to develop into a durable starter. Add McGreevy to the list and, on paper, it looks like the Cardinals have three pitchers with minimal health concerns to this point in their careers. The real question is regarding their effectiveness throughout a full season as all three saw a downward trend at the end of the season. Fitts and Leahy combined for just over 130 innings last year, so counting on them to each jump into the 150 inning mark might be a little farfetched. Expanding the rotation with a sixth man would allow for those arms to get more rest in between starts, but also still stick on a ~30ish start plan.
Each of the first three pitchers are known more for their ability to find bats, while Leahy and Fitts are not exactly strikeout arms either. A sixth man would limit the amount of times each of these five take the mound and face their opponents. Every at-bat and pitch against professional hitters provides more information for hitters to gain on the pitcher, so finding a way to keep somewhat of an advantage on the mound. Last year, this was a potential thought with Steven Matz and/or McGreevy taking more starts than a normal swingman would, but the plan never really happened thanks to the aforementioned health and shocking amount of doubleheaders early in the year.
2. Streamline development
Notice to this point that I have not put a name behind my sixth starter idea. With the Cardinals still sitting in a strange spot with payroll and personnel, the best I can do is mention which free agent I would like at a decent price because I do feel they will target MLB-ready pitching in deals involving their current roster. I mentioned Tyler Mahle as an option before, but MLBTR is predicting him to make $15 million so then it would be like the Cardinals are paying $35 million for Fitts, Mahle, and prospect Clarke from the Gray deal. Is that the best use of resources? Probably not. Honestly, many of the pitching free agents make for tough fits for next year’s transition team unless it is a low-cost rehab project. Rather than watch someone like German Marquez look to regain their form, I would rather use a sixth man spot to answer some pitching questions from the minor league ranks.
Last year, many were itching to see Quinn Mathews, McGreevy, Tink Hence, and others push for a 26-man roster spot, but the openings were not there in the rotation and some further minor league seasoning made sense. McGreevy eventually got his call and we seem to have a decent reason to project him as a mid-rotation starter in the future. Mathews and Hence, though, had inconsistent seasons as they were both hit with health and performance concerns. The lefty Mathews was able to come back after a balky shoulder, but he never got back to his Pitcher of the Year level. No need to overreact with Mathews since he is just beginning his third season of pro ball and is just 25-years-old. Hence, though, is only 23 but coming into his sixth season and has been working to keep those injury questions behind him. 2025 was “lost” season as the righty only threw 21.1 innings in a year where fans wanted to see him finally push past the 100 inning mark. The former top prospect has work to do to get back into the conversation for an MLB promotion.
My sixth-man thought, then, is that it should be used for a prospect who is considered “close” to major-league ready. We saw Mathews, Tekoah Roby, Sem Robberse, Cooper Hjerpe, and others suffer arm issues that limited their 2025 seasons. Minus Hjerpe, the three others at least showed some flashes of being ready to contribute in some capacity at the major league level. For 2026 specifically, I would like to see the Cardinals be aggressive with those “close” arms and have them pitch major league innings and learn the game there, rather than waste meaningful bullets in the minor leagues. In 2026, it is about development for the major league team. I would like to use a sixth rotation spot as a way to give prospects a chance without pushing them through the absolute grind of a big league season. And this could go beyond prospects as this extra start per week could be used to give guys their opportunity.
3. Find a diamond in the rough
This was initially going to be my spot for the above Marquezes of the world, but I still question the payroll and type of big league arms the organization is going to be targeting. So rather than speculate the market, I flipped this to being the part where I say the sixth rotation spot could be used to give their own players a shot.
Looking at last year’s Memphis arms, there were a couple guys who could (should?) have gotten their chance on a major league mound at the end of the season. One arm that I honestly also forget about being a former future starter is Gordon Graceffo. He seems like one who has gotten lost in the shuffle, but has not taken advantage of inconsistent opportunities. His usage could possibly mimic that of Liberatore, who bounced back and forth before settling in as a starter. I know the results haven’t been spectacular, but I love his windup and he has the reliever fallback potential. Memphis ended up having eight pitchers make at least 11 starts last season, and only one of them (McGreevy) saw a single major league inning.
Of that group, Curtis Taylor, Aaron Wilkerson, and Mathews each had ERAs under 4 (sad to be excited about, I know) and both of Taylor and Wilkerson had below a 1.19 WHIP. To again hinder the excitement, Taylor is 29 and Wilkerson is 34. Not exactly young guns in waiting. But, these are the types of guys that teams in spots like the Cardinals should cash in on. Contending teams are always looking for arms at the deadline that could provide depth or a jolt to a pitching staff, and either of these two might have been able to return something to the organization if they were to get their shot earlier in the year. Now, both players are free agents and will likely find a taker elsewhere, potentially one who could have them in competition for a big-league rotation spot. Of course, any return would be minimal, but giving these older pitchers a shot could also do well for the organization.
At risk of making it look like I am too excited about being a veteran flipping ground, giving these projects a shot and then the opportunity to pitch for contenders could make St. Louis be an attractive place for low-risk pitchers in the next few years. Without a massive influx of top prospect pitchers knocking on the major league door, signing a couple of these pitchers every year could end up providing organizational value further down the line without blocking major league innings.
Out of the three options, my preferred choice is number two. Workload is going to be a concern for prospects for the foreseeable future, so option one is probably going to be on the list regardless of the team’s progress. The final choice would be a contingency plan if the prospects in option two got hurt or did not take advantage of their promotion. A likely outcome by Spring Training is that the organization invests in major league innings somehow, via trade or with cash, so the need for a six-man rotation could be moot. Regardless of what happens, I am ready to see what the next crop of arms can bring to St. Louis.
