I’ve now been with VEB for 1 year! Time has truly flown by, and I’ve had a blast being afforded the opportunities I’ve had since joining the team and continuing the great history of this website. Bringing you great readers’ insights, information, and interacting in general has been (mostly) enjoyable. But, enough about me, let’s talk Cardinals!
It’s the “dead period” for 28 other teams’ fan bases. I know most of you are groaning about the myriad of hypothetical offseason posts that continue to be shared that seem to all characterize the same set of questions that face the team – and trust me, we, the writing staff, are equally as eager to have something substantive to talk about as well! I will carry on the yearly tradition of posting my predictions for how the offseason will go with a slight element of boldness that lands somewhere between interesting and insightful, that doesn’t go full “hot take” mode. I will give 5 predictions and judge them the final week of spring training to determine just how well I read the tea leaves!
1. The Cardinals will trade a position player for pitching depth
I’m sure some of your first thoughts are “duh, of course,” but the WHO may be more interesting than the what this time around. With Lars Nootbaar seemingly now more likely to return in 2026 than be traded due to his Haglund’s deformity diagnosis and recovery, and a history of injury problems, Lars will once again be tasked with exhibiting an ability to remain healthy and produce at the same time. Could he be a deadline candidate if all goes well in the first half? I believe that would be strongly within the realm of possibility, but nothing is for certain this offseason. I also wouldn’t expect him to be non-tendered either. At a modest 5.7 million projection – that’s peanuts for a team that is currently projected for a payroll of 80 million dollars short of its franchise peak 2 seasons ago and one that will likely shed a couple of large salaries this offseason.
With that being said, Brendan Donovan has struggled through his own physical issues and continues to be the topic of conversation when it comes to “who to cash in on.” I want to be clear – if I haven’t already been in the past, I would hate this, I think you make your clubhouse worse, I think you make your on field product worse, I think there is a high risk factor that the players the Cardinals would recieve in return for Donovan would never equate or surpass the production at the same level Donovan currently is, and most of all, Donovan is the EXACT type of player that will go on to a winning team, have big moments in the playoffs, and Cardinals fans will rip their hair out becuase “another one got away.” My opinion would be to buy out Donovan’s remaining arbitration years, add on two additional free agent years for some cost certainty, and make him your everyday 3rd baseman.
In 2025, Brendan Donovan had a .422 SLG%, which would have been the 8th highest among 18 qualified 3rd basemen in baseball, and his 119 wRC+ would’ve been 6th among that same group of qualified 3rd basemen. His bat will absolutely play at the position, and an infield consisting of Donovan at 3B, Winn at SS, Wetherholt at 2B, and Contreras at 1B would be a really strong group on both sides of the ball and provide a solid foundation for a competitive team in 2026. But, if the Cardinals decided he was the piece that would get them the young pitching they desperately need at the major league level, then I can understand the justification. I will be highly discouraged if the front office decides to trade him for Double-A prospects or pitchers with low ceilings. If you move Donovan, it had better dramatically alter your timeline, and if it doesn’t, and I’m not convinced that he doesn’t hold more value or appeal to STL than he does the league, then I don’t see trading him as beneficial.
Alec Burleson, I understand fans’ opinion that perhaps his ceiling is tapped out, and the Cardinals should sell on him now while he’s at a perceived peak. I think the Cardinals, and more specifically Oli Marmol, are big fans of Burleson and consistently lauded him as “one of the few to take advantage of the runway season.” Therefore, I don’t think the Cardinals will entertain trading the Silver Slugger finalist unless someone absolutely blows them out of the water.
Which brings me to Nolan Gorman. I don’t know if Gorman will ever reach his ceiling. I don’t know if the consistent swing and miss issues will ever get to a point where he’s able to be a consistent factor in the middle of a competitive lineup. I don’t think Busch Stadium is a place where he can realize his full potential as a pull power hitter, and Gorman is a marginal defender at best. Perhaps a change of scenery would most benefit the trajectory of his career and with Gorman being first year Arb eligible this offseason he’s going to start being less and less valuable until he leaves after 2028 and we all sigh and wonder what could have been or they can trade him now to a team that believes they can get the most out of him, has a ballpark that caters to his lefty pull power, and he can go out and play everyday and not worry about a log jam of players he has to compete against just to get semi regular playing time. Ultimately, I think the decision comes down to Donovan and Gorman this offseason, and Donovan has proved it more to me at the big league level. He’s the steadier, more consistent performer who is actually deserving of further investment. The power potential, the remaining years of control, and the rather large track record of health that Gorman elicits should be enough to entice interested teams to give up something interesting to see if they can unlock him, and, in my opinion, that would be the preferred route to go towards defining everyday roles.
2. The Cardinals will sign a veteran starter for their rotation
As it stands right now, the Cardinals currently project an opening day rotation including Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, and Kyle Leahy/Quinn Matthews. Sonny Gray has a no-trade clause but has indicated a willingness to waive it for the right fit this offseason. While Miles Mikolas was not a well-thought-of performer, he still provided innings, and losing two starters who gave you over 300 innings in 2025 would be irresponsible of the organization to ask for young, unproven starters to replace all of them. With that in mind, my favorite name to keep an eye on is German Marquez, who is coming off of a down year but saw his most healthy season since 2022, and was once one of the better starters in the National League, and you could argue taking him out of the nightmare that is the Colorado Rockies organization could lead to him having a mid career renisance. I wouldn’t propose anything further than a 1-year, 8 to 12 million dollar deal, see if you can procure a rebound first half, and look to flip him at the deadline to a contender (if you’re out of it). I dont believe the Cardinals will hunt multi-year deals for players this offseason with a looming labor strife on the horizon at next season’s end and I’ll be curious to see if player agents instruct their clients to be more open to accepting one year deals and trying to cash in next offseason once a new CBA is instituted and try to capitolize on a newly restructered financial landscape that could or could not include a cap and floor. Chaim Bloom has consistently recycled an old Mo-ism that they’re looking to be “Opportunistic” this offseason.
3. This will be the second offseason in a row that no player receives an extension
Let me be clear, if I were in charge, I would be exploring extensions with Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, and Brendan Donovan, and build out from there. I don’t think any of those deals will get done this offseason for a couple of different reasons. One, the Cardinals are looking to increase and maintain strong roster flexibility this offseason, and assuming heading into the 2027 offseason that holds such an uncertain future in regards to the financial landscape of the game that the ever risk-averse lead Dewitt ownership group likely will want to wait and see what shakes out of that situation before green-lighting longer-term commitments. Two, it takes TWO to tango in negotiations, and I’m not convinced any of the 3 would be willing to sit down and negotiate a well below market deal to obtain long-term certainty when they’re equally as intrigued as to what the potential changing financial landscape may hold for them down their careers as they inch closer to free agency. I think all 3 would allow their representation to engage, but I don’t think any settle for something like Paul Dejong signed to where it was such a crazy bargain for the production he provided early on.
4. The Cardinals will FINALLY trade Nolan Arenado
I love Nolan Arenado as a player. I think he is a future Hall of Fame third baseman and we should be incredibly grateful we were able to witness several seasons of incredible play defensively at third and the couple of elite offensive seasons we were able to witness, as well. I also believe it’s time the Cardinals and their star 3rd baseman go their separate ways and keep moving forward. Chaim Bloom has indicated early this offseason that ownership is on board with committing more significant financial resources to move things along in trades and won’t be a hindrance on that front this offseason. Therefore, similarly to a reliever getting warmed up for a 2nd time in a game, this is the 2nd offseason in a row that Arenado is a prime trade candidate, and one would assume that he’s dealt this offseason, given his comments about being willing to expand his list of teams he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause for. I believe there will be varying levels of interest in Arenado from teams across the league, and how much interest they have will ultimately come down to what the financial commitment element will be, and a future Hall of Fame third baseman at a bargain rate will certainly appeal to teams looking for short-term improvements in an effort to get them over the top of their world series hunt.
5. The Cardinals will start the 2026 season with the lowest payroll in the NL Central
This one hurts. The Pittsburgh Pirates have worn the crown of this achievement for several seasons now, but they still have financial commitments to Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller, and the Cardinals likely won’t be paying anyone other than Willson Contreras at the end of this offseason, so there is a real possibility that the Cardinals will have the lowest payroll in the division. I don’t have much more to say on this topic beyond I hope this is an anomalous situation and not a new normal, nor should it be, given the commitment Cardinals fans have held for years to support a competitive roster, but previous iterations of the Cardinals have left a sour taste in the fan base’s mouth, and they appear to be willing to be patient and root from afar until the team proves it can field a consistent winner on the field again.
I’m truthfully unsure of what exactly will happen this offseason, and in seasons past, I’ve successfully predicted what will happen or who they will bring in, as they had an established pattern of how they operate. This offseason is completely different with a unique set of circumstances that surround it, and I, for one, am fascinated to see how it all plays out, and I can’t wait to see what changes are made this offseason. I just need the stupid Dodgers to hurry up and win the World Series, like it will inevitably come to be no matter how long it takes, so I ask, please take the shortest amount of time possible so my writer friends and I can actually begin talking about substantive offseason topics again.
-Thanks for reading
