A couple months ago, I talked about the Cardinals somewhat odd pitching depth situation. The pitchers who were supposed to be solid MLB depth for the 2026 season (if not in the rotation) got hurt. Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, Tink Hence and Sem Robberse without injuries were supposed to all be pitchers you were relatively comfortable with stepping into an MLB rotation or at least being the next man up. Practically speaking, one or two of that foursome was supposed to be a rotation staple entering the 2027 season.
Instead, they all get pushed into the 2027 pitching depth, which will add Ixan Henderson, Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, Liam Doyle, and maybe even Max Rajcic if he can look like a capable 4th or 5th starter by the end of next season. What this means is that the Cardinals depth for the 2026 season is not very good, even though Henderson and company will be in AAA. But they’re probably looking at half season or more of seasoning in the minors at least, so I would say the good outcome would be them stepping into the rotation post-deadline as far as planning purposes are concerned. They can pitch their way into MLB starters before that, but it is just not something I would count on.
The obvious question then is how do the Cardinals form a pitching staff before that? If we come into the season knowing we should not count on any of the AA pitchers heading to AAA, because the Cardinals are prioritizing development, there does need to be some sort of plan both on having five guys in the actual rotation and contingency plans if someone gets hurt before the prospects are ready.
I have a plan, a plan that does not specifically rely on Andre Pallante being in the rotation, nor Kyle Leahy. There is a capable, near-MLB ready starting pitcher as my 6th starter as well. I admit I don’t really have a great plan past the six starters, but that’s a function of there not really being open starting rotation spots in AAA. I think you need to go into spring training with six MLB starters, and if you can survive spring training and still have that sixth guy, by the time the 7th guy is needed, hopefully someone has emerged. I can’t do any better than that.
First things first, I am not trading Sonny Gray. Well let me hedge a little bit. I won’t say I’ll never trade Sonny Gray, I am just highly dubious of his trade value because of his high salary (effectively 1 year, $40 million) and that his list of teams he’s willing to go to can fit on one hand. And if you need every finger, that is a very good outcome. That’s not a great situation to get a good return. My point is null if things line up where the Cardinals get an actual return for him.
And yes, the Cardinals have said they will spend the money they trade, but then you start getting into a bit of a catch-22. The less the Cardinals kick in, the more you have to spend on free agency, but then also there’s no way they get any real return either. And where the Cardinals are on the win curve, does it really make sense to sign Dylan Cease? When the Cardinals are, on paper anyway, ready to be a playoff team, he’ll probably be 32 or 33 and you’ve wasted his best years. On the flip side, if you do throw in enough money to get a worthwhile return, probably not a lot of money to find his replacement.
Honestly, it really has to do with the fact that I have no faith in Bill Dewitt throwing in enough money to get a real return, so any trade will only include the bare minimum amount of money that needs to offset his negative surplus value. Again, my argument is premised on incomplete information, I don’t know what teams will want Gray, what teams Gray will want to go to, and I don’t know Gray’s trade value. For those who do want to trade Gray, I think it really comes down to: you think he has more trade value than I think he does. I value Sonny Gray’s ability to bridge the gap to 2027 more than, say, Raydar Ascanio. There is a scenario where I am okay trading Gray and maybe would even encourage it, but I have trouble envisioning it personally.
Also, it may be easier to convince Gray to be traded at the deadline, when he only has to be far away from his home for a few months instead of nine months, and it’ll also be pretty clear if that team has a legitimate shot at the World Series. For a 2025 example, Sonny Gray would never agree to go to the Blue Jays before the season when they were projected for 4th place in the AL East, but at the deadline they were 3.5 games in first. I also think it’s more likely the Cardinals pick up the check at the deadline, because they won’t spend it on anything else and whoever they trade him to might not have any extra room in the budget.
So to keep the people who do want Sonny Gray traded, let’s just say one of the spots in my rotation is either occupied by Sonny Gray or by a brand new pitcher acquired from Sonny Gray being traded. Whether that’s because he was in the actual trade (very unlikely, but best case), from the money they can now spend from not spending it on Gray (all likelihood, a reclamation project), or maybe they acquire the pitcher by other means. But I would like for their be an actual plan to replace him in the rotation if he’s traded is more my point.
Also not getting traded: Matthew Liberatore or Michael McGreevy. These probably go without saying. My fourth spot is a free agent signing. Preferably someone who you could sign to a one-year deal with some amount of potential. Mike Soroka, Dustin May, maybe a reunion with Jordan Montgomery (though he won’t likely be ready on Opening Day). If you can get a cost controlled starting pitcher for Brendan Donovan or Alec Burleson, I’m more open to trading Gray and still signing a deal like that. The point being though, outside acquisition, if you can use a trade to fill this spot, that’s fine too.
Spot #5 is a spring training competition. Tell Andre Pallante he has to win his job back and dare Kyle Leahy to take that job. Gordon Graceffo and Zack Thompson (if he’s here) are also in this competition. But internally, it’s Pallante’s job and the others have to steal it. If Leahy has a good spring training, but Pallante does too, I’m going Pallante. If Leahy has a good spring training, and Pallante does not, it’s Leahy’s job. Leahy was last a starting pitcher in 2022, when he was 25 and very bad in AA. He can’t be slightly better than Leahy, he needs to obviously be better. In my opinion.
I still think Pallante has a better chance of being an average or better starter than Leahy. And that’s because Pallante has been an average starter. At 25-years-old. The same age Leahy was when he was a bad starter in AA. I am pretty skeptical of Leahy as a starter, so his spring training performance is very important. I share that with Leahy: it’s Pallante’s job, but you can pitch your way into the rotation. Like I said dare him to take Pallante’s job.
I have neglected an obvious name and that’s Quinn Mathews. It’s quite simple. He’s the perfect 6th starter. He’s not quite ready for the majors, but if he’s forced into it because of injuries, you aren’t mad at it. I still want him to fix his walk problem. He walked 17% of batters in AAA. He’s not ready based on the information we have. Ideally, Mathews isn’t even in the spring competition, but if he wants to be 2026’s Victor Scott, well I won’t argue with him making the rotation. Basically, my #5 spot is Andre Pallante unless someone makes it undeniable and/or Pallante really sucks in spring training.
The way this is set up, if someone gets hurt, Leahy or Thompson or Graceffo can still fulfill the #5 role and you can keep Mathews as the 6th starter. I am trying to create guardrails to not promote someone before they seem ready and if you can’t tell, I don’t think Mathews is ready. Maybe he comes to spring and does things that make the coaches think he is ready but at this very moment, I am structuring my offseason plan around Mathews being the 6th starter.
And if the Cardinals did in fact want to compete in 2026 more than they are letting on, then I have a slightly different plan. Sign one of the #2 starters in free agency or trade a redundant player plus prospects for a #2 starter. Gray/#2 guy/Liberatore/McGreevy plus the best spring training performance of Pallante/Leahy/Graceffo/Thompson/Mathews seems like a pretty decent rotation. Not dominant, but will keep you in the vast majority of games.
It is again very interesting how many different routes they may take. Is there a starting pitcher available for one of the Cardinals left-handed bats? You’d think they’d make that trade if that was the case. Will they manage to trade Sonny Gray? You have a big hole to fill or a very rough season if you hope the internal options replace him. How aggressive will they be in promoting young starters? For all we know, one of the lefties who’s never pitched in AAA is actually genuinely competing for a spot in the rotation (and not just lip service) or maybe they have no intention of having any of them pitching in the majors next season at all?
They have quite a few options on how to handle this. Let’s hope they go with something fun.
