Fans of the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be finally accepting reality as the team has hit an all out tailspin in August. After losing two out of three to the Rockies (that could have easily been a sweep) and then being swept by the Yankees, the Cardinals have played their way out of playoff contention and should be ready to begin the youth movement in full, minus JJ Wetherholt.
While Nolan Arenado sits on the injured list and the team comically tries to work around nagging injuries to older players like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Willson Contreras, the team struggles have hit a low point. Refusing to place any of these players on the IL has limited manager Oli Marmol’s ability to work with the roster and give a week of playing time to any of the prospects that could be a step up from the likes of Garrett Hampson and Jose Barrero before him. This should be a major red flag because if there was truly a 40-man roster crunch like fans have been hearing for a month or so, guys like Matt Koperniak, Jose Fermin, and even Michael Siani would have been called up to give the veterans more time to recover. Apparently, the organization does not believe these players would provide any support to the big league club so should we already write them out of the 40-man equation for next year?
The Cardinals current 40-man roster still has more questions than answers
Coming into this year and even before August, I thought the Cardinals had an opportunity for a quick rebuild as long as they invested finances properly and their player development plans work out. Last week, I wrote how the Cardinals could compete in 2026 because of their solid, if unspectacular, offensive pieces that could benefit from a couple upgrades around the diamond. I was upset yet excited that Arenado was heading to the IL for an unforeseen amount of time so we could get a real look at Nolan Gorman and Thomas Saggese in the infield. Add in Donovan and Nootbaar’s maladies to the fact that Victor Scott II just hit the injured list and the juggling of playing time should have been pretty simple for Marmol. An IL stint for either of the former two would open up the chance for someone to get a call up to St. Louis. At this moment, I am avoiding talking about Wetherholt getting his shot since it appears they are ready for him to stay in Memphis for the rest of the year.
The 40-man roster currently sits at 39 and that is with Tink Hence hurt again along with Sem Robberse and Tekoah Roby on the shelf. These spots could be filled with trade deadline acquisition Blaze Jordan, Cesar Prieto, or Jimmy Crooks if the organization wanted to start sorting through their minor league system to clear out the so-called logjam of prospects. Unfortunately, though, it appears that the Cardinals are planning to stay the course with their current roster set up and address those questions next year.
Sidebar here: This was very similar to how the Cleburne Railroaders worked when I was with them in Spring Training before being released for Rafael Palmeiro’s attempted comeback. The team was going through a transition (new owners, new stadium, new staff) and after the first month of the season, the pitching coach reached out to me saying that ownership put a “lock” on the current roster and no moves were able to be made. The team was near the bottom of the standings all year and their player morale was miserable. They knew there was no support coming. Pitchers would start Monday then have to be used in relief a couple days later. Hitters were in weeks long slumps. Vibes were low in Cleburne.
Back to actual big-league baseball.
The current guys on major league roster were supposed to be getting their opportunities all season, which would have provided some more clarity on the roster prior to August. Of course, that plan did not happen and it took injuries and terrible play to force management’s hands to get the young guys on the field. The problem is, though, we are not getting any clear answers from their prospects while they are receiving their chance. Fans felt that Saggese, Walker, Gorman, Scott, and Ivan Herrera were MLB ready and should receive everyday opportunities. Saggese did not make the team out of camp, Walker struggled, Gorman has been on and off the IL while also being blocked around the diamond, VSII has been bad offensively and is now hurt, and Herrera was hurt twice, moved out from catcher, tried out in the outfield, while also showing his offensive potential at points. Since August, when these opportunities opened up, only Nolan Gorman has been seen as an above-average hitter with a 126 WRC+ while striking out 27.7% of the time but has walked at a 14.9% clip. Everyone else, though, has failed to seize the moment. As a group, those five hitters have combined for 10 extra-base hits and driven in 22 runs since August 1, while each of them have struck out more than 24% of the time.
Herrera has been the most exciting player offensively all year but has hit a snag this month. While juggling between DH and the outfield, he has a .250 batting average and just a .645 OPS. He has stolen two bases to bring his season total up to five, maybe showing his ability to stick in the outfield because of his athleticism. Saggese has a .286 average but has not taken a walk while striking out over 32% of the time, showing his Alec Burleson-like approach of swinging at everything and putting the ball in play. His contact has not been quality, though, putting up a 79 WRC+ and a .333 slugging percentage. Around the infield, he has not done much to inspire confidence at third or second while Gorman has had his own issues defensively as well. I do not want to keep beating Victor Scott II down but his offense is approaching Michael Siani levels as he continues to find the approach that works best for him. Walker is the most upsetting as he has shown very small spurts of plate discipline, power, and defensive abilities. He has totaled a -0.6 fWAR for the entire season and has put up a .582 OPS in August.
I do not expect, nor want, the Cardinals to move on from any of these five guys at this point and they should all continue to receive playing time in this lost season. Before moving on, I will say I have the most faith in Herrera to have prolonged success but I am definitely not writing off any of these other players who are all 25 years old or younger. The supposed 40-man roster crunch, though, may create a sense of urgency for the organization and they could deal from this “depth” to fill in other spots around the roster, namely the pitching staff.
So, how has that young pitching been since moving on from Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, and Phil Maton? As a whole, the staff has a 4.77 ERA (22nd in MLB), a slightly better 4.19 xFIP (17th), 7.50 K/9 (25th), and 1.37 WHIP (24th). There has been some positives, though, especially in the bullpen since the Memphis Shuttle got back up and running. JoJo Romero, Riley O’Brien, Kyle Leahy, and Matt Svanson have allowed nine earned runs for a 2.48 ERA and have struck out 33 batters in 32.2 innings. Each of those players is under contract for next season but this does not guarantee positive results as we have seen with Ryan Fernandez, who is sporting a 9.00 ERA after a phenomenal season in 2024.
The rotation is even more concerning to me because I feel that quality, experienced relievers can be purchased for cheap in the offseason and the Cardinals will have to do more of that if they want to figure some things out before the 2026 campaign. Of the “young guys” who appear likely to hold a rotation spot next year, it is obvious the Cardinals need a change of pace and expectations for their rotation. Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, and Michael McGreevy have each shown flashes, but are not without their own concerns. Liberatore has struggled with maintaining his velocity and effectiveness at this point of the year, his first since becoming a full-time starter at the major league level. Pallante has not averaged four innings pitched in his three starts in August while putting up a 9.26 ERA with seven walks in his 11.2 innings. The Pallante concern is bigger in my eyes as his ERA is over 6.00 since the start of July and he has lost his already below-average ability so strike out opposing batters to make up for his command issues. McGreevy has been fine but has the same pitch-to-contact concerns that we are all sick of hearing about as he’s allowed 20 hits in 18 August innings while only striking out nine batters. The minor league options have been absolutely hammered by injuries and ineffectiveness, so there does not appear to be an instant answer waiting for a call up as even Quinn Mathews’ recent starts have had plenty of other questions. The Cardinals will need to be aggressive with their draft prospects from this season or look to spend on the free agent market, two things they have traditionally shied away from.
Overall, it took just a week for me to take a step back from my positive, young core post. That is a big problem with baseball but it takes many eyes, evaluators, and analytics to sort through the numbers that matter. The eye test still holds plenty of value when used in conjunction with the technology, and right now, neither of those are showing much to inspire confidence in the long-term success of the young core. While I am not ready to give up on any of the offensive players at this point, it is clear that there needs to be some quality support if this team wants to right the ship quickly.
